Saturday, October 5, 2013

5/10/2013: Euromoney Country Risk: Italy v Spain

Euromoney Country Risk scores changes:

  • Improved score for Hungary driven by gains in Economic Assessment, Political Assessment and Structural Assessment
  • Cyprus scores continue to deteriorate despite the claims from the Troika that the economy is close to 'stabilising'. Cyprus risk metrics are tanking at a rapid rate from 58.0 in March post-default rating to 52.1 only 6 months later.
  • Spain is rated below Italy, but the two counter-moved in recent ratings, with scores differntials driven by the following:

The political cycle clearly disfavours Italy, but economic performance is on Italy's side.

Here's ECR's analysis on Italy v Spain, with comment from myself (you can click on slides to enlarge):

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