Monday, October 21, 2013

21/10/2013: Sovereign Debt & Banking Crises: Emerging Markets Evidence

Recent (March 2013) CEPR Discussion Paper No. 9369 by Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger and Bilge Karataş, titled "Three Sisters: The Interlinkage between Sovereign Debt, Currency and Banking Crises" argues that "the sovereign debt default and the linkages from banking and currency crisis have been rarely explored in the crisis literature." The study attempted "to dive into this unexplored area by applying panel data binary choice model on a sample with 20 emerging countries having monthly observations for the years between 1985 and 2007. The non-linear linkages from currency and banking crises to sovereign defaults are explored by using the interactions of these crises with international illiquidity, appreciated real exchange rates and real international monetary policy rates."

The sample is clearly not applicable directly to the advanced economies, such as the euro area, but the findings still remain interesting.

"It is discovered that currency, banking and debt crises tend to occur simultaneously [an increase in the indebtedness of the public sector, overvalued exchange rates and financial as well as political riskiness of a country plays a role in predicting sovereign default].

"Prior occurrence of a currency crisis increases the sovereign default probability through appreciated real exchange rates, and in countries with high short-term indebtedness the occurrence of banking crisis raises the probability of a debt crisis."


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