Tuesday, October 1, 2013

1/10/2013: Irish Manufacturing PMI: September 2013

Some good readings from Irish Manufacturing PMI (Investec-sponsored Markit data) for September:

  • Headline PMI is at 52.7 up on 52.0 in August and the highest reading since 53.9 in July 2012.
  • Critically, this appears to be the first statistically significant reading above 50.0 since November 2012.
  • I use 'appears' above since we have no formal analysis from Markit on this (Investec don't do analysis). The distribution is Laplace. August reading was close to being statistically significant.
  • In terms of trend, Q1 2013 average reading was 50.13, Q2 2013 at 49.33, Q3 now reads 51.9. 
  • 12mo MA is at 50.8.
  • 3mo MA through September 2013 is at 51.9, which is below the same period 2012 (52.2), but ahead of 2011 (49.2) and slightly ahead of 2010 (50.4).

Now, it appears we have broken the downward trend at last. Index volatility (36mo rolling) has fallen slightly to around 2.3 in terms of 3mo average through September, which is close to historical average of 2.4 and is well below the crisis-period average of 3.4. Positive skew on change is at 3mo average of +0.75 (for deviations from 50.0) and this contrasts with a negative -0.34 skew for historical data and -0.25 skew for crisis period data. So let's call it a trend reversal for the short term:

Sadly, nothing else to report, since Investec/Markit continue to push out data-less releases. Wish I could tell you about employment, exports orders, total orders... but there is not a single number in the press release, only comments.

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