Thursday, September 5, 2013

5/9/2013: Services PMI: August 2013

With a delay (due to extenuating circumstances) - here's my analysis of dynamics of the Services PMI for August for Ireland.

Yesterday's reading on Services PMI was spectacular by all measures:

  • Headline  index rose to 61.6 in August 2013, the highest reading since February 2007 and 19th highest reading in history of the index.
  • August reading marked the third consecutive month of index reaching statistically significant levels of growth.
  • 12mo MA is now at expansionary 55.6, 6mo MA at 55.7 and 3mo MA at 58.0. These readings should signal a break in the third recessionary dip we have experienced.
  • Current 3mo MA is solidly ahead of 3mo MA through May (53.4) and is ahead of same averages for 2012, 2011 and 2010.
The most critical bit, however, is that this is the first time now that the PMI has breached the levels consistent with the pre-crisis activity. This is not to say we are heading for 4.4-4.6% annual GDP growth, but it is significant nonetheless. 

All-in - very solid expansion, very solid reading and starting from actually high levels of activity to begin with.

We do not have - courtesy of Investec and Markit deciding to cut back the information they release to us, mere mortals - the actual composition details or the breakdown by sector. However, per Markit release, most of the growth is accounted for by booming IFSC. The overall Services PMI is very significantly skewed in the direction of MNCs (as I showed on a number of occasions).

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