Thursday, September 12, 2013

12/9/2013: Actual v Potential Emigration from Ireland

In recent weeks, I have seen a number of figures mentioned relating to the extent of emigration from Ireland over the recent years, ranging from 300,000 to 400,000 emigrants. Here is the summary of the data:

Actual levels of Emigration from 2009 through 2013 stand at 397,900 cumulative emigrants. Actual recorded Net Emigration from Ireland over that period stands at 120,800.

Taking into the account the trends for inward and outward migration from 2000 through 2007, Net Emigration reflective of pre-crisis trend stands at around 436,700. This number, however, assumes that the trend for inward inflow of people into the country as well as the trend for outward outflow of people from the country established over 2000-2007 were to continue into 2009-2013 period as well. As such, this number (loosely) represents the potential loss of population due to rising emigration and reduced immigration. Most of this effect is driven by reduction in the inflows of people into the country relative to trend.

While the last number is only indicative and an estimate, it does show that the true demographic cost of the crisis to Ireland is in the region of 436,700 fewer residents in this economy than could have been expected under the pre-crisis trends.

No comments: