This morning, release of Industrial Production (volume) indices across the EU was interpreted as a positive surprise on the otherwise bleak economic news horizon. To be honest, there is a good reason for this. August 2011 data, compared with July 2011, shows seasonally adjusted industrial production rising by 1.2% in the euro area 17 and by 0.9% in the EU27. In July, adjusted figures show that production grew by 1.1% and 0.9% respectively. Year on year, August 2011 compared with August 2010, industrial production increased by 5.3% in the euro area and by 4.3% in the EU27.
But some details are omitted in the release and become more visible once you look at the updated eurostat database. Here are the breakdowns of numbers:
For All Industries (Mining and quarrying; manufacturing; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply; construction) as opposed to eurostat release-focus of All Industries, less construction, the data we have covers only the period through July 2011. Here we have:
But some details are omitted in the release and become more visible once you look at the updated eurostat database. Here are the breakdowns of numbers:
For All Industries (Mining and quarrying; manufacturing; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply; construction) as opposed to eurostat release-focus of All Industries, less construction, the data we have covers only the period through July 2011. Here we have:
- Euro area production rose 1.8% monthly and 3.96% yoy in July,
- Belgium posting an increase of 0.1% mom and 3.13% yoy,
- Denmark +1.15% mom and +0.34% yoy
- Germany -1.04% mom and +7.91% yoy (German data is for August)
- Ireland -6.73% yoy (latest data is for June)
- Greece -14.0% yoy (latest data is for June)
- Spain 1.01% mom and -1.52% yoy
- France +0.69% mom and +4.98% yoy
- Italy -1.12%mom and -2.39% yoy
- Netherlands +2.34% mom and +2.26% yoy
- Austria -1.3%mom and +4.58% yoy
- Poland +0.99% mom and +6.10% yoy (latest data is for August)
- Portugal +1.21% mom and -4.04% yoy (latest data is for August)
- Finland +0.94% mom and +2.88% yoy (latest data for August)
- Sweden +0.32% mom and +4.49% yoy (latest data is for August)
- UK -0.64% mom and -1.30% yoy
Charts illustrate:
Note that euro area average index for 2008 stood at 105.05, declining to 90.73 in 2009 and rising to 94.57 in 2010. 2011-to-date average index is 97.12, still miles below the 2008 levels.
Looking closer at overall index subcomponents. Let's take Manufacturing first.
- Euro area 17 manufacturing index is up 1.6% mom and 6.44% yoy - strong showing. The index averaged 102.91 in 2011-to-date, against 107.27 average in 2008 and 97.53 average in 2010. Again, it appears we are still way off the 2008 levels of activity.
- Denmark -4.33%mom and +1.87% yoy
- Germany -1.01%mom and +9.42% yoy
- Ireland +3.69% mom and +11.52% yoy
- Greece -2.63% mom and -11.62% yoy
- Spain +2.84% mom and +1.03% yoy
- France +0.74% mom and +5.06% yoy
- Italy +4.03% mom and +3.56% yoy
- Poland +2.15% mom and 6.06% yoy
- Portugal +6.56% mom and +0.10% yoy
- Finland +3.05% mom and +3.25% yoy
- Sweden -2.57% mom and +7.65% yoy
- UK -0.33% mom and +1.52% yoy
Strong showing on manufacturing side is also replicated by robust growth in New Orders sub-index:
- Euro area up 2.38% mom and +8.47% yoy in August, with 2011-to-date average index at 105.8 against 110.09% 2008 average and 98.84 2010 average. The gap is both narrower and is closing more robustly.
- Denmark (-4.78%mom), Germany (-0.43%mom), Greece (-0.36%mom), Portugal (-0.17%mom), Sweden (-2.33%mom) and the UK (-0.88%mom) posted monthly declines in the index in August
- Ireland (+1.4%mom), Spain (+2.44%mom), France (+1.08%mom), Italy (+4.87%mom), the Netherlands (+0.13%mom), Poland (+2.05%mom) and Finland (+2.16%mom) have posted monthly increases.
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