Sunday, October 23, 2011

23/10/2011: Ireland's External Trade data: August 2011

Catching up on some data releases missed last week (lecturing marathon of MSc in TCD, plus UCD MiM - great students, great honor to mentor). First up - trade data.

Seasonally adjusted exports rose 10.24% mom to €7,767mln in August. Annual increase in exports was 2.25% yoy on seasonally adjusted basis. Relative to August 2009, this year exports rose 15.76%. Overall, additional exports yoy were €170.8mln compared to August 2010 and 1,057.5mln on August 2009.

Seasonally adjusted imports were up 6.23% mom to €4,068mln, annual imports rate of growth in August 2011 was 5.71% and relative to August 2009 imports are up 13.45%. Year on year imports are up €219.6mln, which implies that trade surplus is down €48.8mln on 2010.

Trade surplus rose 14.71% mom to €3,698.5mln on seasonally adjusted basis. Trade surplus in August was 1.3% below (-€48.8 mln) August 2010 level and €575.2mln (+18.4%) above August 2009 level.
On an unadjusted basis, trade surplus of €3,251mln in August 2011 was virtually unchanged from the 2010 figure of €3,221mln.
Volume indices of trade - reported with 1 month lag - showed that in July 2011 exporting activity fell to 466.3 against 532.2 in June 2011, and July 2011 reading was below comparable reading for 2010 (494.3) and July 2009 (469.5).

Imports intensity of Irish exports rose to 190.91 in August - up 3.8% on July 2011 and down 3.3% on August 2010. The intensity is up 2.0% on August 2009 and remains well above historical average of 155.3 reflecting the overall increasing share of MNCs in our exports.

Terms of trade have improved in July (also reported with 1 month lag) from 78.2 in June to 76.9 in July 2011. This compares to 86.2 in July 2010 and 86.6 in July 2009, showing overall easing in exchange rates pressures over 2011 compared to 2009 and 2010.

Per CSO, based on final data for seven months through July 2011, Irish exports rose 4% to €54,258mln compared to 2010, driven by:

  • Medical and pharmaceutical products +11% or €1,599mln 
  • Organic chemicals +8% or €925mln
  • Exports of Computer equipment declined by 10% or €261mln and 
  • Telecommunications and sound equipment fell by 25% or €124mln
Based on data through August, my forecast for 2011 external trade is:
  • Imports up to €49,068mln in 2011 from €45,772mln in 2010
  • Exports up to €92,356mln in 2011 from €89,260mln in 2010
  • Trade surplus down to €43,271 in 2011 from €43,488mln in 2010.

No comments: