28/10/2011: Retail Sales for September

Retail sales for September came in with a major disappointment with a drop of 0.8% in Volume and an annual decline of 2.9%. The Value of retail sales fell 0.6% mom and declined 3.3% yoy. Given catastrophic collapse of the retail sales through the crisis to-date, the latest figures are grim.

Value of retail sales (seasonally adjusted) is now below 3mo average of 87 (September reading is 86.4) and below 6mo average of 87.6. In comparison, 2010 annual average is 88.8 and 2011 average to-date is 87.7. Volume of retail sales is now running at 91.0 against 3mo average of 91.7 and 6mo average of 92.2. 2010 annual average is 93.3 against 2011 average to-date of 92.1. Things are bleak across the board.

Relative to peak (chart below), Value of retail sales is now down 25.6% and Volume is down 21.2%.

Ex-motors - core - retail sales declined 0.2% mom and fell 3.4% yoy in Volume, in Value there was a monthly decrease of 0.1% and an annual decrease of 2.4%. Relative to peak, core sales are now down 20.4% in Value and 15.0% in Volume. 3mo average for Value of core sales is now at 94.6 against September reading of 94.3 and 2010 average is at 97.6 against 2011 to-date average of 95.7. For Volume, 3mo average is 98.7 against the current reading of 98.4 and 2010 average is 102.3 against 2011 to-date average of 99.7.

Quarterly series movements are showing substantial strain on retail sales, as detailed in the charts below.

Per CSO: "The only categories that showed month-on-month increases were Electrical Goods

(+2.7%), Department Stores (+0.3%), Oher Retail Sales (+0.5%) and Non Specialised Stores (+0.2%) in the volume of retail sales. Furniture & Lighting (-4.2%), Motor Trades (-3.4%) and Food Beverages and Tobacco (-2.8%) were amongst the categories that showed month-on-month decreases in the volume of retail sales."

Other revealing features included:

• Fuel sales were up 1.7% yoy in September in Value, but down 9.6% in Volume, reflective of deep price inflation and continued contraction in demand
• Pharmaceutical Medical and Cosmetic Articles sales down 8.9% yoy in both Volume and Value
• Clothing, Footware and Textiles down 4.9% in Value and 5.3% in Volume yoy
• Furniture & Lighting down a massive 15.1% in Value and 11.7% in Volume yoy
• Overall, in terms of Value of sales only 2 categories of sales posted yoy increases in September: Non-Specialized Stores (ex Department Stores) and Fuel. In terms of Volume only electrical goods (+3.2%) posted a yoy increase.
• In August 2011 (latest data available) Ireland recorded 6th largest yoy contraction in retail sales in EU27. In July 2011 we were the 8th worst performing economy in terms of retail sales.

But fear not, allegedly, exports of Viagra etc are going to replace all the jobs being lost in the retail sector as soon as we've turned another corner.