Wednesday, August 3, 2011

03/08/2011: US ISM & Irish PMIs (Manufacturing)

On August 1, US Institute of Supply management monthly manufacturing activity index for July posted the worst performance since July 2009, falling 4.4 points to 50.9 (barely above 50 mark of zero growth). The new orders sub-index dropped into contractionary territory and employment index suffered significant drop. Factory gate prices also contracted signaling a decline in profit margins going forward.

Meanwhile, Irish manufacturing PMIs (published by NCB) for July similarly came in with disappointment. Here are the updated numbers:
  • Overall Manufacturing sector PMI declined to 48.2 in July (below 50, signaling contraction of activity), down from 49.8 in June and marking the second consecutive month of contracting sector activity.
  • 12-mo average for PMI is now at 52.3, while 3mo average is at 49.9 against previous 3mo average of 56.1.
  • In 3-mo to July 2010 PMI stood at 56.1.
  • The July reading is the worst since January 2010

  • On seasonally adjusted basis, output sub-index also posted second consecutive month of contracting activity with July reading of 49.8, slightly up on June 49.3
  • New orders activity was also contracting at 47.9 in July, down from also contractionary 48.7 in June. New orders 12-mo average is now at 53.1 and 3 mo average at 49.8, while previous 3 months average was 58.1.
  • New export orders activity continued to grow at a slowing pace, down to 51.3 in July from 51.5 in June and 58.7 in May. 3mo average through July now stands at 53.8 against 3mo average through April at 59.9.
Other sub-indicators:
  • Backlogs of work contracted at faster pace of 41.1 in July down from 41.8 in June - the worst reading since August 2009. Sharp decrease in July was mainly reflective of a strong drop in new orders
  • Stocks of purchases and suppliers delivery times were all signaling contracting activity
  • Stocks of finished goods also signaled tighter manufacturing activity
  • Per NCB note: "Attempts by firms to improve cash flow led to a marked reduction in stocks of purchases in July, with the rate of depletion the fastest since August 2010. Stocks of finished goods also fell, although the rate of decline was only slight. Post- production inventories have reduced in each month since May 2008."
On profit margins side:
  • Again per NCB note: Increased oil and commodity prices led to a further rise in input prices. Despite easing for the fourth month running, the rate of cost inflation remained sharp, and faster than the long-run series average." Specifically: input prices sub-index stood at 59.3 in July, down from 63.5 in June. 3mo average through July now stands at 63.9, while 3mo average through April was 75.1 - an improvement in the rate of inputs costs growth, but these continue on the upward trajectory.
  • As NCB note: "In response to higher input prices, manufacturers raised their output charges. However, strong competition and weakening demand meant that the rate of inflation was only slight." Again, output prices sub-index fell to 50.4 in July, from 53.2 in June and 12mo average now stands at 52.8, while 3 mo average is at virtually identical 52.6. This is down from the previous 3moo period (through April 2011) which was 57.4.
  • So profit margins are continuing to deteriorate (second chart below).
Per chart above last, employment conditions continued to deteriorate in Manufacturing, with sub-index for employment moderating contractionary signal to 49.1 in July from 48.3 in June. This marked third consecutive month of employment sub-index below 50. While 12mo average stands at 50.2, 3mo average through July is now at 49.1, contrasted robustly by 3mo average through April 2011 at 54.0. Same period (3mo through July) of 2010 averaged 49.5 reading.

This, of course is disheartening. The chart below updates the pace of 'recovery' in Manufacturing for July data:

Please note: data is sourced from NCB publication, while all charts and statistical details as well as analysis are supplied by me.

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