Monday, August 29, 2011

29/08/2011: Retail Sales for July - a mixed bag swinging in the headwinds

The volume of retail sales in Ireland declined by 0.6% in July 2011 yoy and there was a monthly change of -0.5%. The value of retail sales decreased by 0.5% yoy and there was a month-on-month change of -0.4%.
  • Current value of sales index reading is 88.7, down from 89.1 in June and below the 3mo running average of 88.8. The index is still ahead of the January 2011-to-date average of 88.3.
  • Value of sales index is now 25.65% below its peak in February 2008.
  • Value of retail sales index now reads 93.2, down from 93.7 in June. The index is now slightly below its 3mo running average of 93.3 but slightly ahead of 6mo running average of 92.8. The volume index average for January 2011-to-date is 92.3.
  • Volume of retail sales is now down 19.86% on its peak attained back in October 2007.

If Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of core retail sales fell by 2.3% in July 2011 against July 2010, while there was a monthly increase in sales volumes of 0.5%. There was an annual decrease of 1.2% in the value of retail sales and a monthly increase of 0.8%.
  • Value of core retail sales now stands at 95.7, up from 94.9 a month ago and ahead of 3mo running average of 95.3, but still below 6mo running average of 95.9. In comparison, 2010 average was 97.6 and 2011 running average to-date is 96.2.
  • Core retail sales in value are now 19.3% below their December 2007 peak.
  • Volume of core retail sales is now reading 99.1, up from 98.6 a month ago, and against 98.8 average for the 3mo and 6mo running average of 99.3. 2010 annual average is 102.3, while January 2011-to-date average is 99.5.
  • Volume of retail sales is now 15.3% below its November 2007 peak.

In July, Motor Trades (+7.1%) and Non-Specialised Stores (+0.4%) were the only two
categories that showed year-on-year increases in the volume of retail sales. Largest yoy drops were posted by Books, Newspapers and Stationery (-9.5%), Other Retail Sales (-6.9%) and
Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles (-6.8%) in the volume of retail sales.

A follow up post will update on the data for consumer confidence and links to retail sales data.
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