Friday, January 17, 2014

17/1/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, January

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region was covered here:

Now, on to survey results for North America and Western Europe region. emphasis is always, mine.

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 83% of 109 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, marginally higher than 81% reported in December. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen except Portugal, which is expected to remain the same."

Of note:

  • Ireland is now moved into the middle of 'growth distribution' from previous position firmly ahead of the entire region. Italy and Spain are now posting stronger expectations than Ireland.
  • Eurozone expansion expectations are still lagging those of the UK and the US.
  • Germany continues to lead the Eurozone expectations.

Out to 6 months horizon: "Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents expect only Greece to remain in a recessionary phase at the 6 month horizon."

"Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."

Red dot denotes Austria, Germany, Norway and Switzerland

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

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