14/6/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, June 2014

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/06/1462014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html) I covered EMEA results from the BlackRock Investment Institute latest Economic Cycle Survey. Here, a quick snapshot of results for North America and Western Europe

Per BI:

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 67% of 86 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, compared to net 84% figure in last month’s report. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy.

Note: Note: Red dot denotes Austria, Canada, Germany, Norway and Switzerland.

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen with exception of Switzerland which is expected to stay the same.

Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents described Greece and Italy to be in a recessionary state, with the even split between contraction or recession for Portugal, Belgium and Ireland.

Over the next 6 months, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Greece and Italy.

Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."


Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

14/2/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, February

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region was covered here http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/822014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html

Now, on to survey results for North America and Western Europe region. Emphasis is, as always, mine.

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 65% of 110 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, (18% lower than within January report).

The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

First, 12 months ahead outlook: "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen except Norway and Denmark, which are expected to remain the same."

Note that Ireland has moved closer to Eurozone average, away from 1st position in the chart it occupied in 2013.

Now, for 6 months outlook: "Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents expect only Greece to remain in a recessionary phase at the 6 month horizon. Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."

Note: Red dot denotes Austria, Norway and Switzerland.

Notable changes on previous: Greece position is much improved compared to 2013 when it occupied the North-Eastern most corner. Denmark is now in a weaker outlook position than Greece with higher expectations of a recessionary phase 6 months out. Ireland is bang-on on 10 percent assessing current state of economy as recessionary and same percentage of analysts expecting economy to be in a recession over the next 6 months. Coverage for Ireland is pretty solid in terms of number of analysts surveyed, so the above, in my opinion, shows that analysts consensus expects economy to strengthen over the next 6-12 months with strong support for a modest uplift.


Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

17/1/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, January

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region was covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/01/1712014-blackrock-institute-survey-emea.html.

Now, on to survey results for North America and Western Europe region. emphasis is always, mine.

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 83% of 109 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, marginally higher than 81% reported in December. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."

"At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen except Portugal, which is expected to remain the same."

Of note:

• Ireland is now moved into the middle of 'growth distribution' from previous position firmly ahead of the entire region. Italy and Spain are now posting stronger expectations than Ireland.
• Eurozone expansion expectations are still lagging those of the UK and the US.
• Germany continues to lead the Eurozone expectations.

Out to 6 months horizon: "Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents expect only Greece to remain in a recessionary phase at the 6 month horizon."

"Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."

Red dot denotes Austria, Germany, Norway and Switzerland



Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

12/12/2013: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, December 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region was covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/12/12122013-blackrock-institute-survey.html.

Now, on to survey results for North America and Western Europe region:

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 71% of 115 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, (6% higher than within the October report)."

Forward outlook:

• "The consensus of economists project a shift from early cycle to mid-cycle expansionary over the next 6 months."
• "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen except Norway, where we currently have a low participation rate."

Euro area: "The consensus outlook for the Eurozone continued to improve, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 87% to 90% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase. Within the bloc, most respondents expect only Greece to remain in a recessionary phase at the 6 month horizon."

North America: "Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."

Note Ireland's position: vis-à-vis euro area (weaker) in the first chart and overall (strong) in the second chart.

 Note: Red dot denotes Austria, Canada, Germany, Norway and Switzerland.

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

11/10/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: N. America & W. Europe: October 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute Economic Cycle survey for North America and Western Europe is out and here are core results (emphasis is mine):

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 65% of 113 economists expecting the global economy will get stronger over the next year. (6% lower than within the September report).

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or remain the same except Sweden. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone was also strong, with 87% of economists expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase over next six months. The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting only Greece to remain in a recessionary phase and an even mix of economists expecting Portugal and Belgium to be in an expansionary or recessionary phase at the 6 month horizon (and similarly so for Sweden, outside of the currency-bloc). 

With regards to North America, the consensus view was firmly that the USA and Canada are in mid-cycle expansion and are expected to remain so through H2 2013."

Note that this correlates well with my own outlook: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/10/9102014-businessinsider-most-important.html

Also note: the above views do not reflect BlackRock own views or advice. 

Two charts as usual:

Note that in the chart above, Ireland now firmly converged with the Euro area. This is a very strong move compared to September survey: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/1292013-blackrock-institute-survey-n.html And the above is confirmed by the overall comparative expectations forward:

So on the net - good result for Ireland and positive outlook for Euro area as a whole.

12/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: N. America & W. Europe: September 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for North America and Western Europe region for September 2013.

Per summary: "This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 71% of 119 economists expecting the global economy will get stronger over the next year. (1% higher than within the August report). 

At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or remain the same. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone continued to improve, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 75% to 86% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase. The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting Portugal, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands to remain in a recessionary phase over the next 2 quarters. 

With regards to the US, the consensus view firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and remaining so through H2 2013."

September improvement for the global outlook was much shallower than a 10 point jump in August. Ditto for Eurozone outlook: this rose from 57% in July to 75% in August to 87% in September. Italy outlook seemed to have improved quite markedly, however.

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Two charts as usual:

Ireland continues to lead expectations, just as it did in previous 3 months.

In global expectations there were some notable movements in analysts' replies. 6% of analysts expected global economy to get a lot stronger over the next 12 months back in August, and this declined to 2% in the current survey. 69% expected it to get a little stronger in August and this proportion rose to 76% in September. 5% expected the global economy to get a little weaker in the next 12 months back in August, which in September rose to 6%. 

In Ireland's case, in August zero percent of analysts expected the economy to get a lot stronger over the next 12 months and this remained unchanged in September survey. All analysts (100%) expected the Irish economy to get a little stronger over the next 12 months in September survey - same as in August. 57% of analysts expected the economy to be in an early-cycle recovery over the next 6 months back in August, and this fell to 50% for September survey. There was significant rise (from 0% to 17% between August and September surveys) in the proportion of analysts expecting Irish economy to be in mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months period. The number of analysts expecting the economy to be in a late-recession over the next 6 months dropped from 43% in August to 33% in September.

6/9/2013: BlackRock Institute survey: North America & Western Europe: August 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for North America and Western Europe region.

Per summary: "This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented an improvement in the outlook for global growth over the next 12 months – the net proportion of respondents with a positive outlook increased to 70% from 60% last month. 

The consensus outlook for the Eurozone was particularly positive, where the 6 month forward outlook shifted from 57% to 75% expecting the currency-bloc to move to an expansionary phase. 

The picture within the bloc was not uniform however, with most respondents expecting Portugal, Greece, Belgium and the Netherlands to remain in a recessionary phase, while the consensus has shifted to expect expansion for France, Spain, Finland and Ireland over the next 2 quarters. An even mix of economists expect Italy to be expansionary or recessionary at the 6 month horizon (and similarly so for Norway, outside of the currency-block). 

With regards to the US, the proportion of respondents expecting recession over the next 6 months remain low, with the consensus view firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and remaining so through H2 2013."

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

Here are two summary charts: