Wednesday, January 8, 2014

8/1/2014: Weakness in Retail Sales extended into November 2013

Retail sales data was out for November 2013 today. Here's the top of the line analysis:
  • On seasonally-adjusted basis, core retail sales (ex-motors) posted a slight rise in value of sales from 95.5 in October to 96 in November. 
  • Year-on-year value of retail sales (ex-motors) are down 0.1%.
  • Core retail sales in volume terms stood at 101.4 in November, up of 100.1 in October.
  • Year-on-year volume of retail sales index rose 1.6%
  • Meanwhile, the ESRI Consumer Confidence indicator declined to (still massively optimistic) 71.0 in November from 76.2 in October. A year ago, the CCI was at 63.8.

3mo period through November 2013 compared to 3mo period through August 2013:
  • Value index marginally down at 95.6 against 96.1 prior;
  • Volume index marginally up at 100.5 against 100.4;
  • Consumer confidence index up robustly at 73.4 against 68.5 prior

Thus, in the nutshell, Consumer Confidence rose over the year, while retail sales  basically stagnated. 

My own Retail Sales Activity Index:
  • On 3mo basis up at 105.6 in September-November 2013 against 103.9 in June-August 2013;
  • Up 0.54% mom - in line with 0.52% rise in Value index and up 2.75% y/y

It is worth noting that stripping out motor trade, automotive fuels and bars,
  • Value of retail sales fell 0.98% in the 3mo through November compared to 3mo through August
  • Volume of retail sales rose 0.06% in the 3mo through November compared to 3mo through August

The above suggests that p[rice reductions in there entail sector in September-November 2013 had no effect on increasing retail sales, compered to the 3 months of June-August 2013.

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