Thursday, January 9, 2014

9/1/2014: Danske EM: Russian Economic Outlook 2014

Danske Emerging Markets out with their outlook for Russian economy for 2014. Here are two core snapshots with my brief comments (click on the image to enlarge):

All good. Concern is that credit growth (consumer credit) is still high, although from relatively low levels. On optimism for 2014 side, there might be a rebound. Certainly the projections for oil and energy prices and basic commodites are better and improving. But 'Sochi Effect' is questionable. See here on the timings of the economic impact of the London Olympics: and here's something on the Olympics Effect in the longer run (aka no effect):

And a spot-on bit on monetary policy:

One bit - I do not think there will be a dramatic fall-off in inflation.

Here are two core charts:

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