Friday, March 22, 2013

22/3/2013: National Accounts 2012: Ireland - Part 4

The first post of the series covering 2012 National Accounts looked at the headline numbers for real GDP growth. The second post covered sectoral weights in GNP and our GDP/GNP gap. In the third post I explored the opportunity cost of the crisis and the effect the realignment of economic activities in Ireland is having on fiscal position.

Now, let's focus on the quarterly series. 

The headline for quarterly national accounts should be reading: Ireland is back in a recession for the fourth dip
  • Q/Q Irish GDP fell, in real terms, 1.5% in Q4 2012, which followed a 1.9% q/q contraction in Q3 2012, marking two consecutive q/q contractions. 
  • Y/Y Irish GDP was flat - exactly flat - on Q4 2011 but in Q3 2012 it was up 0.9%.

  • GNP was up 0.67% q/q in Q4 2012 after posting a contraction of 1.75% in Q3 2012 in q/q terms.
  • Y/Y GNP was up 3.04% in Q4 2012 after posting a y/y gain of 3.9% in Q3 2012
  • In H2 2012, GDP rose 0.4 y/y and shrunk 1.4% on H1 2012, while GNP rose 3.5% y/y and was up 1.89% on H1 2012.

Volatility is the name of the game for our national accounts, folks.

You can see components of GDP dynamics here.

Quarterly GDP/GNP gap posted second consecutive easing, moving away from mean reversion, suggesting the MNCs are building up capex reserves - once these are to be deployed, prepare for the gap to shift down to 20-22% territory and GNP shrinking by up to EUR2.6bn in any given quarter of reversion relative to Q4 2012. Were mean reversion to bite in Q4 2012, we would have had GNP down y/y and q/q and ditto for H2 down y/y.

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