Friday, March 29, 2013

29/3/2013: Eurocoin signals 18th consecutive month of recession

Eurocoin leading indicator for euro area growth was out today. Key highlights:

  • Eurocoin rose to -0.12 in March 2013 from -0.2 in February 2013. 
  • Eurocoin remains below -0.03 reading attained in March 2012 and +0.57 reading for March 2011.
  • 3mo MA is now at -0.183 which gives Q1 2013 growth forecast (q/q) or 0.18% for euro area GDP.
  • This means that Eurocoin is now below zero in every month since September 2011, marking a massive 18 months in a row.
  • In previous recession of 2008-2009 Eurocoin duration below zero was 13 months, which means that the current bout of economic contraction is longer in duration than the so-called Great Recession.
  • In March 2013 Eurocoin gained some upside support solely from buoyant stock markets. 
Here are some charts:

And as usual, monetary policy charts for which analysis remains as postulated in my February post (here):

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