15/12/19: Under the Hood of Irish National Accounts: 3Q 2019 Data

CSO have released the latest (3Q 2019) data for the National Accounts. The headlines are covered in the release here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter32019/ and are worth checking. There was a massive q/q increase in GNP (+8.9%) and a strong rise in GDP (+1.7%).

Official value added q/q growth figures were quite impressive too:

• Financial & Insurance Activities value added was +5.7 percent in volume, all of which, judging by the state of the Irish banks came probably from the IFSC and insurance premiums hikes
• Professional, Administrative & Support Services +5.1 percent (this sector is now heavily dominated by the multinationals)
• Public Administration, Education and Health sector lagged with a +1.5 percent 
• Arts & Entertainment +1.8 percent
• Construction grew by much more modest +1.3 percent 
• Industry (ex-Construction) fared worse at +1.1 percent 
• Information & Communication increased by 0.8 percent over the same period
• Meanwhile, more domestic-focused Agriculture recorded a decline of 3.2 percent 
• Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants posted a decline of 1.0 percent.

On the expenditure side of accounts:

• Personal Consumption Expenditure increased by 0.9 percent q/q
• Government expenditure increased 1.2 percent.

Not exactly the gap we want to see, especially during the expansionary cycle, but public consumption has been running below private consumption in level terms ever since the onset of the recovery.

With this in mind, here is what is not discussed in-depth in the CSO release. CSO reports a measure of economic activity that attempts to strip out some (but not all) of the more egregious effects of the tax optimising multinational enterprises' on our national accounts. The official name for it is 'Modified Domestic Demand', "an indicator of domestic demand that excludes the impact of trade in aircraft by aircraft leasing companies and trade in R&D service imports of intellectual property". Alas, the figures do include intangibles inflows, especially IP on-shoring, income from domiciled intangible assets, and transfer pricing activities. Appreciating CSO's difficulties, it is virtually impossible to make a judgement as to what of these three components is real (in so far as it may be actually physically material to Irish enterprises and MNCs trading from here) and what relates to pure tax optimisation.

With liberty not permitted to CSO, let's take the two categories out of the aggregate modified demand figures.

So, this good news first: Modified Total Domestic Demand is growing and this growth (y/y) is improving since hitting the recovery period low in 3Q 2018. 

Bad news: growth in modified domestic demand remains extremely volatile - a feature of the Irish economy since mid-2014 when the first big splashes of the Leprechaun Economics started manifesting themselves (also see last chart below).

Not great news, again, is that domestic growth is not associated with increases in investment (first chart above, blue line). 

More good news: in levels terms, adjusting for inflation, Ireland's Modified Domestic Demand has been running well-above pre-crisis period peak average levels for quite some time (chart below). Even better news, it appears that much of the recent support for growth in demand has been genuinely domestic.

Next chart shows y/y growth rates in the headline Modified Total Domestic Demand as reported by the CSO (blue line) and the same, less transfer pricing, stocks flows and IP flows (grey line). 

Starting with mid-2014, there is a massive variation in growth rates between the domestic economy growth rates as reported by the CSO and the same, adjusting for MNCs-dominated IP and transfer pricing flows, as well as one-off effects of changes in stocks (inventories). There is also tremendous volatility in the MNCs-led activities overall. Historically, standard deviation in the y/y growth rates in official modified domestic demand is 5.68, and for the period from 3Q 2014 this is running at 5.09. For modified demand ex-transfer pricing, IP and stocks flows, the same numbers are 6.12 and 1.62. 

Overall, growth data for Ireland has been quite misleading in terms of capturing the actual tangible activities on the ground in prior years. But since mid-2014, we have entered an entirely new dimension of accounting shenanigans by the multinationals. Much of this is driven by two factors:

1. Changes in tax optimisation strategies driven by the international reforms to taxation regimes and the resulting push by the Irish authorities to alter the more egregious loopholes of the past by replacing them with new (IP-related and intangible capital-favouring) regime; and
2. Changes in the ays in which MNCs prioritise specific investment inflows into Ireland, namely the drive by the MNCs to artificially or superficially increase tangible footprint in the Irish economy (investment in buildings, facilities and on-shored employment) to provide cover for more tax-driven FDI.

Time will tell if these changes will lead to more or less actual growth in the real economy, but it is notable that the likes of the IMF have recently focused their efforts at detecting tax optimising activities at national levels away from income flows (OECD approach to tax reforms) to FDI stocks and firm-level capital activities. By these (IMF's) metrics, Ireland has now been formally identified as a corporate tax haven. How soon before the OECD notices?..

30/7/15: Irish 1Q 2015 Growth: Sectoral Contributions

Some very strong headline figures on Irish growth in 1Q 2015 are out today from the CSO so I will be blogging on these in a number of posts today.

To start with, let's take a look at data on GDP composition at Factor Cost - in other words, contributions of various economic sectors to GDP on output side of the National Accounts. The analysis below references real GDP (adjusted for prices changes).

In 1Q 2015:

• Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector posted growth in output of 5.8% y/y. This contrasts with growth of 21.0% recorded y/y in 4Q 2014 and with 16.5% expansion y/y in 1Q 2014. This is the slowest growth in the sector since Q3 2013. Overall, in annual terms, the sector accounted for 2.02% contribution to the overall GDP growth (Factor Cost GDP) or EUR50 million y/y (compared to EUR194 million added by the sector in 4Q 2014). The sector was the second smallest contributor to growth in GDP (at Factor Cost) in 1Q 2015 after Building & Construction. Quarterly growth in the sector was negative: in 1Q 2015 Agriculture et al sector shrunk (on seasonally-adjusted basis) by 30% compared to 4Q 2014 and this contrasts with 25.4% growth q/q recorded in the sector in 4Q 2014.
• Industry (ex-Building & Construction) grew strongly in 1Q 2015, posting y/y expansion of 9.63% compared to 8.71% expansion in 4Q 2014 and 0.56% growth in 1Q 2014. This marks 1Q 2015 as the fastest growth quarter (y/y terms) since Q3 2014 and the second fastest growth quarter (y/y) since Q4 2010. As the result, the sector accounted for 39.1% of all growth recorded in GDP (at Factor Cost) in 1Q 2015. The sector was the single largest contributor to GDP (at Factor Cost) growth in 1Q 2015. A caveat here is that this sector growth is strongly influenced by the MNCs, especially Pharma, Bio and Medical Devices sectors, but more on this when I am covering external sectors performance in subsequent posts. Quarter on quarter growth in Industry (ex-Building & Construction) was much less impressive than annual growth rates. In 1Q 2015, Industry contribution to GDP actually was negative on q/q basis at -0.31% compared to 5.16% growth recorded q/q in 4Q 2014 and 3.35% growth recorded q/q in 1Q 2014.
• Building and Construction sector posted positive y/y growth of 3.26% in 1Q 2015, which contrasts positively with a -0.16% contraction y/y posted in 4Q 2015. However, 1Q 2015 y/y growth was much weaker than 9.66% growth recorded in the sector in 1Q 2014. Overall, Building & Construction sector contribution to growth in GDP (at Factor Cost) stood at 1.38% in 1Q 2015 - the smallest positive contributor to growth in 1Q.
• Distribution, Transport, Software & Communication (DTSC) sector made a strong contribution to growth in 1Q 2015, with activity up 6.5% y/y. The rate of annual growth is relatively steady in the sector, having posted growth of 5.4% in 4Q 2014 and 5.93% growth in 1Q 2014. The sector accounted for 29.1% of total growth in GDP (at Factor Cost) in y/y terms. The caveat applying to these figures is that the sector includes many ICT-related MNCs which have been recently posting growth in tax optimisation-linked activities. Quarterly growth in the sector was also positive, with 1Q 2015 activity up 2.11% on 4Q 2014, after posting growth of 1.05% q/q in 1Q 2014.
• Public Administration & Defence (PAD) sector posted another quarter of annual contraction in activity, shrinking -5.52% y/y in 1Q 2015 after posting -3.09% decline in 4Q 2014. In contrast, the sector expanded by 2.21% in 1Q 2014. Overall, sector made negative contribution of -3.4% to annual GDP (at Factor Cost) growth in 1Q 2015. This marks the largest contraction in annual growth rates in the sector since 2Q 2012.
• Other Services (including rents) sector posted another quarter of steady growth, rising 4.42% y/y in 1Q 2015, having previously posted growth of 4.40% in 4Q 2014 and 4.12% in 1Q 2014. Sector contribution to overall growth in GDP (at Factor Cost) was 30.1% - second largest after Industry ex-Construction.

Chart below summarises sectoral shares of GDP growth in 1Q 2015:

The above clearly shows that the bulk of growth in 1Q 2015 by sector must be compared against growth in exports to attempt to control for MNCs activities before drawing any conclusions about headline growth figures anchoring to the real economy. I will do this in subsequent posts, so stay tuned.

Overall, real GDP at Factor Cost posted growth of 6.1% y/y in 1Q 2015 - a healthy figure compared to 5.28% growth recorded in 4Q 2014 and to 3.87% y/y expansion in 1Q 2014. Thus annual rate of growth accelerated in 1Q 2015 compared to 4Q 2014 and to growth a year ago.  Overall, sectoral activity expanded GDP by EUR2.47 billion in 1Q 2015 compared to growth of EUR2.176 billion in 4Q 2014.

As chart above shows, annual growth rate is currently running above the period average (2012-present) and marks statistically significant rate of annual growth. Which is very good news.

On a quarterly basis, GDP (at Factor Cost) grew by a more modest 0.74% quarterly rate in 1Q 2015, slightly slower than in 4Q 2014 when it expanded 0.79% q/q and much slower than in 1Q 2014 when it grew at 1.57% q/q.  This marks 1Q 2015 as the slowest quarter over the 5 consecutive quarters and the second slowest in 8 consecutive quarters.

Longer-term trends:

Based on annual rates of growth and levels performance, Irish real GDP (at Factor Cost) is on a renewed positive trend. Once again - good news.

Stay tuned for more analysis of the National Accounts figures in subsequent posts.

13/3/2014: Domestic Demand 2013 - A Black Hole of Booming Confidence...

This is a third post on the 2013 national accounts.

Remember that boisterous claim by the Irish Government that our economy is growing at rates faster than the euro area average? Eurozone GDP down 0.4% y/y in 2013. It is down 0.65% in Ireland.

That was covered in previous posts here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/03/1332014-gdp-down-gnp-up-as-2013.html and here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/03/1332014-what-was-tanking-what-was.html

But aside from that, QNA also provides a look into the dynamics of domestic demand, which gives a much more accurate picture than GDP and GNP as to what is happening on the ground in the real economy.

Chart above shows y/y changes in domestic demand and its components.

Good news: Gross Fixed Capital Formation was up in 2013, rising EUR710 million y/y.

Bad news: everything else is down:

• Personal Consumption down EUR941 million y/y in 2013 - a massive acceleration in decline compared to the drop of 'only' EUR229mln in 2011-2012.
• Net local and central Government spending on current goods and services (so excluding capital investment) is down EUR135 million. I guess one might be tempted to say that is good, because it is an 'improvement' of sorts on a drop of EUR963 million in 2011-2012, but getting worse slower ain't exactly getting better…
• Final domestic demand posted another year of contraction. In 2012 it was down EUR1.361 billion on 2011. Last year it shrunk EUR366 million on 2012.

In simple terms, domestic demand is now down every year since 2008 and 2013 levels of real domestic demand are down 18.4 percent on their 2008 levels. In 2013, final domestic demand was down 0.3%.


Personal consumption was down 1.15% y/y, net spending by Government on current goods and services was down 0.55% y/y, gorse fixed capital formation was up 4.15%. Something must have happened to all the confidence consumers were having throughout the year… or at lest conveying to the ESRI researchers...

In summary: there is no recovery in domestic economy. None. Which begs a question: what were all those jobs that we have 'created' in 2013 producing? We know that the 'farming jobs' added were generating output equivalent (on average) to EUR 9,900 per person. The rest? Maybe they were measuring confidence?

Chart below shows 2013 demand compared to 2010, 2011 and 2013 levels.

Good thing foreign investors and cash buyers are snapping those D4-D6 houses, because without them, the rest of the domestic economy is still shrinking…

13/3/2014: What was tanking, what was growing in Ireland in 2013?

Numbers may speak volumes, but a picture of two can really make the difference in understanding why the latest GDP and GNP figures for Ireland are so poor. So on foot of my more numbers-focused post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/03/1332014-gdp-down-gnp-up-as-2013.html) here are two charts showing sources of changes in GDP and GNP.

Positive numbers imply positive contribution to GDP or GNP from the change in the specific sector/line output.

GDP first:

So largest increases in GDP are down to ICT services MNCs and taxes. Largest declines in GDP down to Industry (ex-construction) and Distribution Transport, Software and Communications.

GNP next:

So all of growth in GNP is down to lower expatriation of profits by MNCs and possible increases of inflows of income from abroad.

13/3/2014: GDP down, GNP up... as 2013 economic recovery goes up in a puff of statistical smoke

CSO released QNA for Q4 2013 and I will be blogging at length on the core results, so stay tuned.

Here is the release link: http://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter42013/#.UyGWmfTV9bs

And the key highlights:

Q4 2013: GDP down 2.3% q/q on seasonally-adjusted basis, in constant prices terms. This fully erased a 2.1% rise q/q recorded in Q3 2013, while 1.1% rise q/q in Q2 2013 was not enough to cover a decline of 1.4% in Q1 2013… Overall, annual figure fell (more on that below).

Since the official end of the Great Recession in Q1 2010, we had 9 quarters of rising GDP and 7 quarters of falling GDP.

As a result, constant market prices terms (2011 prices), GDP in Ireland now stands at EUR 162.303 billion, which is below 2011 and 2012 levels. Officially, there is no recession. Practically, GDP is shrinking.

The good news is that GNP is growing as MNCs are not expatriating profits from the land of transparent corporate taxation, so 2013 real GNP sits at EUR 137.476 billion, up strongly on EUR132.984 billion in 2012 and above the levels recorded in 2009-2011.

Decomposing the above aggregate changes:

Taxes less subsidies rose to EUR15.223 billion in 2013 from EUR14.811 billion, contributing EUR412 million to 'growth'. Taxes are snow back to levels just below 2010 which should make our trade unionists rejoice, somewhat.

Stripping out state capture of the economy, GDP at constant factor cost fell EUR965 million in 2013 compared to 2012 and is down on 2011 levels too (-EUR472 million). So much for the 'recovery', then…

Looking at sectors of economy:

• Other Services, including rents (and including our hard working services MNCs) are up EUR1.958 billion in 2013 compared to 2012. This line of national income is now up to the levels just below those last seen in 2008. Much of this recovery, of course, is down to sales of ICT services around the world being booked into Dublin, but we shall deal with that aspect of our accounts separately.
• Public Administration and defence is down EUR278 million y/y in 2013, and is now at the lowest level since 2008.
• Distribution, Transport, Software and Communications sector is down EUR888 million to its lowest contribution level in any year of the crisis.
• Building and construction sub-sector posted a rose in its contribution to GDP +EUR243 million in 2013 compared to 2012, and sector activity is up EUR52 million on 2011 levels, although it is still down EUR381 million on activity in 2011.
• Industry, inclusive of building and construction is shrinking - presumably on foot of pharma sector woes. The sector in 2013 posted income of EUR39.341 billion, down EUR1.339 billion on 2012, down EUR1.664 billion on 2011 and down EUR724 million on 2010. In 2013, we have hit an absolute low in Industry sector despite some pick up in construction for any year of the crisis.
• Remember 25,000 new farmers added in 2013 to our 'employment' figures? Well, they are working hard. Or rather prices inflation is working very hard in the sector. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector generated increase in activity in 2013 of EUR237 million, which partially offset the decline in the sector fortunes in 2012. Still, 2013 levels of activity are EUR258 million behind 2011 levels and EUR316 million behind 2010 levels. The sector contribution to GDP in 2013 was the second lowest for the entire crisis period.

So here we go… recovery then… negative GDP growth (due to industry, distribution, transport, software and communications, and government activities shrinking, only partially offset by growth in other services, construction and agriculture, and rising taxes net of subsidies). Oh, and 25,000 new farmers adding on average ca EUR9,500 per person in annual output to the economy (remember - they are all gainfully employed, right?)...

28/6/2013: Exports-led recovery: Q1 2013

I covered the headline numbers and trends for the GDP and GNP in previous two posts: here and here. Now, onto some more detailed analysis.

Remember, from the very beginning of the crisis, Irish and Troika leaders have been incessantly talking about the 'exports-led recovery'. Position on this blog concerning this thesis consistently remained that:

1. Exports growth is great, but
2. Exports growth is unlikely to be sufficient to lift the entire economy, and
3. Exports growth projections were unrealistic, while
4. Exports re-orientation toward services, away from goods was less conducive to delivering real growth in the economy.

Q1 2013 data continues to confirm my analysis.

In Q1 2013, based on real valuations (expressed in constant market prices),

• Exports of Goods & Services shrunk 6.47% q/q and fell 4.09% y/y. This compares to +1.19% q/q growth in Q4 2012 and +1.28% expansion y/y. Compared to Q1 2011, when the current coalition took over the reigns in the Leinster House, total exports of goods and services are down 0.88% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. Troika sustainability projections envisioned growth of over 6% over the same period of time.
• Imports of Goods and Services showed pretty much the same dynamics as exports in both Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, but owing to sharper contractions in 2011-2012 these are now down 4.34% compared to Q1 2011.
• Exports of Goods fell in Q1 2013 by 3.83% q/q and 9.37% y/y, while there were declines of 2.68% q/q and 2.33% y/y in Q4 2012.
• Exports of Services were down 8.75% q/q but up 1.27% y/y in Q1 2013, and these were up 4.77% q/q and 4.63% y/y in Q4 2012.

• Trade Balance in Goods and Services fell 4.96% q/q and was down 3.63% y/y in Q1 2013, with Q4 2012 respective changes at -15.91% q/q and +0.98% y/y. Compared to Q1 2011, trade balance is up 15.91%
• Trade Balance in Goods was down 6.63% q/q in Q4 2012 and this deteriorated to -10.73% growth in Q1 2013. Y/y, trade balance in goods contracted 0.05% in Q4 2012 and shrunk 10.59% in Q1 2013. On Q1 2011, trade balance in goods is down 14.04%.
• Trade Balance in Services fell from EUR1,130mln in Q3 2012 to EUR132mln in Q4 2012 before improving to EUR601mln in Q1 2013. In Q1 2012 the balance stood at EUR28 million.

28/6/2013: Underlying dynamics in Irish GDP & GNP: Q1 2013

Q1 2013 National Accounts do not make for a pleasant reading. The implications from the business cycle perspective are pretty clear - we are in a continued (3rd quarter in a row) recession, which constitutes the fourth 'dip' since the onset of the Great Recession. The post summarising that evidence is linked here.

In this post, let's take a look at the GDP and GNP in constant prices.

On seasonally-adjusted basis (removing seasonal volatility),

• GDP at constant factor cost (national output ex-taxes and subsidies) fell 0.65% q/q in Q1 2013, having contracted 0.12% q/q in previous quarter. On an annual basis, the GDP at factor cost declined 1.32% in Q1 2013, accelerating annual rate of decline relative to Q4 2012 when it fell 1.04%.
• Compared to Q1 2011, when the current Government came to power, GDP at factor cost was 0.72% higher in Q1 2013.
• Taxes rose 1.04% q/q in Q1 2013, after having posted a decline of 0.64% in Q4 2012. On an annual basis, taxes were down 0.79% in Q4 2012, but they rose 2.32% in Q1 2013.
• Compared to Q1 2011, taxes were up 1.16% in Q1 2013.
• To summarise the above, austerity is clearly biting. Taxes are rising at a 60% faster rate than economic activity.
• Subsidies remained relatively constant in Q1 2013 on an annual basis, implying that net taxes rose strongly.
• GDP at constant prices (accounting for taxes net of subsidies - the headline metric usually referenced as GDP) fell 0.58% q/q in Q1 2013, which follows a shallower contraction of 0.18% recorded in Q4 2012. On an annual basis, GDP contracted by 1.03% in Q1 2013, following a 1.02% contraction in Q4 2012.
• Net factor income for the Rest of World (outflows to the rest of the world from factor payments, net of inflows of Irish incomes earned abroad) fell dramatically in Q1 2013, down 16.96% q/q, following a 3.22% decline q/q in Q4 2012. In year-on-year terms, net outflows fell 16.55% in Q4 2012 and by 27.58% in Q1 2013. 
• It is impossible to tell from QNA the core drivers of the net outflows, however, from the balance of payments data we have reinvested earnings in Q1 2013 by the foreign companies in Ireland at EUR4,753 million, up on EUR4,010 million in Q4 2012 and down on EUR6,768 million in Q1 2012. The gap of Repatriations of earnings from Ireland are not provided for Q1 2013.
• On foot of significantly reduced outflow of funds abroad, GNP at constant market prices rose in Q1 2013 rose 2.85% q/q and 5.46% y/y, beating growth of 0.51% q/q and 3.01% y/y recorded in Q4 2012. 
• However, as analysis in the subsequent posts will show, this growth is entirely dependent on reduced outflows of funds abroad. Q/q, net expatriation of funds slowed down by EUR1,204 million, while earnings outflows abroad shrunk by EUR2,015 million.
• Taking the average net factor payments abroad for Q1 2010-2012 in place of Q1 2013 figure, GNP growth controlling for net factor payments changes would have been around -0.01% y/y and -2.48% q/q.

Charts below summarise seasonally unadjusted series:

The chart below clearly shows that even in y/y terms, we are now in a solid, three-quarters long (so far_ recession.

The GDP/GNP gap has, predictably - given the shrinking of net factor payments abroad - declined from 25-26 percent (seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted) in Q1 2012 to 17.3-17.5 percent in Q1 2013:

It is worth noting in the chart above a significant increase in volatility in the gap, which is reflective of the greater volatility in Ireland's GDP and GNP series as well as destabilisation in growth correlation between GDP and GNP. This new pattern is most pronounced starting with Q1 2008 and is associated with both - the crisis and the underlying re-distribution of growth drivers away from the domestic economy to services exports, especially during the 2010-2011 'recovery'.

27/6/2013: Quadru-Sextu-ple-dip Recession in Ireland: Q1 2013

All you need to know about today's QNA data release (though it won't deter me from more detailed analysis later) is:

• Ireland is in a quadruple-dip recession (chart below)
• You and I are in a sextuple-dip recession (second chart below)

Incidentally, just in case you felt like previous 'expansion' (officially from Q1 2010 through Q2 2012) was not much of an expansion at all, then you live in the world we inhabit, closely related to the Gross Domestic Demand. If you felt things were just fine then, you might live in Australia, or read too much of the Department of Finance presentations on their web site, or... I have no idea...

As I commented on earlier post by Brian Lucey: That light at the end of the tunnel did turn out to be an incoming train...

Update: Meanwhile, Minister Noonan thinks that the above (3 consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy, official fourth dip in the Great Recession and 6th dip in Total Domestic Demand) is "certainly disappointing but it's one set of statistics" (link). How long till Enda pops up to greet us with Dude's famous return: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsogswrH6ck

24/3/2013: Irish GDP & GNP Growth 2007-2012

Five charts summarising Irish GDP and GNP dynamics in 2007-2012 period. The first set is of 4 charts plotting various measures of GDP and GNP in constant and current prices in terms of year-on-year changes:

In all of the above, I show two 'trend' figures: the 2% annual real growth trend as a long-term sustainability level of growth and the within-crisis (period of contracting GDP or GNP) and out-of-crisis (period of sustained positive growth) averages. These two sets of lines provide a marker for assessing as to whether or not the economy is currently running at the growth rates above or below trend.

And to summarise the state of play today:

Thus, after almost two years of 'turned corners' and 'recoveries'

• Ireland's GDP and GNP are still massively below the pre-crisis levels of 2007. 
• Ireland's GDP growth in constant and current prices is running below trend levels in Q3 and Q4 2012
• Ireland's GDP growth shorter-term trend (post-crisis) is below the long-term trend levels, which is simply not consistent with normal U-shaped recovery
• Ireland's GNP growth is running at above trend levels for 3 quarters now in constant prices terms, and close to the trend levels for current prices terms
• By all measures (across current and constant prices) both GDP and GNP are posting markedly slower rates of growth in Q4 2012 compared to previous quarters.

22/3/2013: National Accounts 2012: Ireland - Part 4

The first post of the series covering 2012 National Accounts looked at the headline numbers for real GDP growth. The second post covered sectoral weights in GNP and our GDP/GNP gap. In the third post I explored the opportunity cost of the crisis and the effect the realignment of economic activities in Ireland is having on fiscal position.

Now, let's focus on the quarterly series. 

The headline for quarterly national accounts should be reading: Ireland is back in a recession for the fourth dip…

• Q/Q Irish GDP fell, in real terms, 1.5% in Q4 2012, which followed a 1.9% q/q contraction in Q3 2012, marking two consecutive q/q contractions. 
• Y/Y Irish GDP was flat - exactly flat - on Q4 2011 but in Q3 2012 it was up 0.9%.

Meanwhile, 

• GNP was up 0.67% q/q in Q4 2012 after posting a contraction of 1.75% in Q3 2012 in q/q terms.
• Y/Y GNP was up 3.04% in Q4 2012 after posting a y/y gain of 3.9% in Q3 2012
• In H2 2012, GDP rose 0.4 y/y and shrunk 1.4% on H1 2012, while GNP rose 3.5% y/y and was up 1.89% on H1 2012.

Volatility is the name of the game for our national accounts, folks.

You can see components of GDP dynamics here.

Quarterly GDP/GNP gap posted second consecutive easing, moving away from mean reversion, suggesting the MNCs are building up capex reserves - once these are to be deployed, prepare for the gap to shift down to 20-22% territory and GNP shrinking by up to EUR2.6bn in any given quarter of reversion relative to Q4 2012. Were mean reversion to bite in Q4 2012, we would have had GNP down y/y and q/q and ditto for H2 down y/y.

22/3/2013: National Accounts 2012: Ireland - Part 3

The first post of the series covering 2012 National Accounts looked at the headline numbers for real GDP growth. 

The second post covered sectoral weights in GNP and our GDP/GNP gap.

Overall, there are two main themes in rebalancing of the economy that showed up in data so far: 

1) Increasing share of MNCs activity in GDP (and temporarily GNP), which means that the official figures for the National Accounts now even more overestimate the real economic activity in the country; and

2) Long-term falling out of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and Construction sectors from the economy, with Public Administration & Defence clearly showing signs of contraction, albeit at the rate that is, so far, trailing contraction in overall economy over the period 2003-2012.

In this post, let's take a look at the opportunity cost of the crisis.

Recall that relative to peak, Irish GDP is down 5.97% as of the end of 2012 and GNP is down 8.08% despite 'two years of consecutive growth' the Government is so keen on emphasising. 

Also recall that 1980-2011 average growth rates in constant prices terms were 3.58% per annum, whilst IMF forecasts consistent structural or potential growth rate is currently around 2%. Using 2% figure we can, therefore, estimate the opportunity cost of the current crisis as losses to GDP and GNP arising from the growth foregone during the crisis. Chart below illustrates:

The grand total in opportunity cost due to the crisis (note, this is not an exercise in 'blaming the Government' or providing any estimate of real or actual losses, but rather an estimate of the opportunity cost of the crisis) is:

-- EUR104.5bn of cumulated foregone GDP for 2008-2012 or per-capita EUR22,823;

-- EUR58.8bn of cumulated foregone GNP for 2008-2012 or EUR12,828 per capita

With taxes net of subsidies at 9.647% of the GDP in 2012, the above implies roughly EUR10.1bn in foregone net tax receipts or ca EUR2bn in annual receipts. Using 2008-2012 average weight of net taxes in GDP implies EUR2.4bn in foregone annual net tax receipts.

What does this mean? Aside from the massive opportunity cost of the crisis, we have a rather revealing figure on foregone tax receipts. The figure clearly suggests that even were economic activity running at the 2% growth rate since 2007 without the crisis, re-alignment of economic activity away from domestic sectors toward MNCs-dominated activities and toward MNCs-dominated services activities in particular would still result in unsustainable deficits and would still required some sort of a fiscal adjustment, thanks to our taxation system that is extremely unbalanced when it comes to supporting MNCs-focused activities.

22/3/2013: National Accounts 2012: Ireland - Part 2

The first post of the series covering 2012 National Accounts looked at the headline numbers for real GDP growth (link here).

This post covers sectoral weights in GNP and our GDP/GNP gap.

In terms of the latter, GDP/GNP gap in 2012 stood at 22.02% in favour of GDP, down from the record 25.0% in 2011, but still the third highest in 2003-2012 period. The trend remains up and latest decline in the gap clearly appears to be mean-reverting adjustment similar to the pattern established since 2005-2006.

The above suggests that over time we can expect upward movement in the gap, leading to the contraction in GNP (either in growth terms or even in levels). For example, adjusting 2012 GNP for 3-year average gap implies lower GNP by some 0.3% or EUR378mln, adjusting the same for 3-year average annual growth rates in the gap implies GNP lower by EUR3.0bn or 2%.

While the above exercises are highly stylised and should not be taken as rigorous assessments, they show clearly that volatility in our GNP induced by the MNCs transfers of profits abroad is significant and renders some of the y/y comparatives highly suspect.

Now on to sectoral contributions to the economy:

• Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing share of GNP declined from 2.4% in 2011 to 2.1% in 2012, thus falling back to where it was at the peak of the property and construction boom in 2006. This is the joint-lowest sector weight in GNP in 2003-2012 series with 2006 being another year of lowest contribution. Put simply, we have a Department out there in the Civil Service that is overseeing something that amounts to only 2.1% of the economy and not once in 2003-2012 period amounted anything more than 2.9%. In fact, 2003-2012 average contribution for the sector is just 2.53% with subsidies from EU accounting for much of that. You don't have to be a genius to see that the 'Food Island' ideal is just a pipe dream when it comes to our own production levels. We might have a larger food sector, but it is not dependent critically on our agricultural sector.
• Industry accounted for 28.4% of GNP, down from 29.3% in 2011. 2003-2012 average contribution is 30.24% which shows overall the secular decline in the sector importance. Most of this decline was driven by the collapse of Building & Construction sector which went from 9.9% share in 2004 to 1.4% share in 2012 - massive 8 years of consecutive declines. Ex-Construction, Irish industry (well, mostly MNCs) have grown in their share of GNP contribution from 24.6% in 2003 to 27% in 2012.
• Distribution, Transport & Comms sector share remained relatively static at 27.5% of GDP in 2012 compared to 27.6% in 2011 when it heir the record levels for 2003-2012 period.
• In line with the declines in overall activity, Public Administration and Defence sector posted a decrease in its share of GNP from 5.9% in 2011 to 5.5% in 2012. Still: back in 2003-2006 the sector was running at 3.9% to 4.1% and 2003-2012 average is still 5.2% - below the current running levels. 
• Other Services sector importance in GNP contribution fell back from 46.7% in 2011 to 45.2% in 2012 and the sector is now slightly behind the 46% average for 2003-2012.
• Taxes Net of Subsidies slipped further from 12.4% in 2011 to 11.8% in 2012. The 2003-2012 peak was in 2007 at 16.1%.

Thus, overall, there are two main themes in rebalancing of the economy: 

1. Increasing share of MNCs activity in GDP (and temporarily GNP), which means that the official figures for the National Accounts now even more overestimate the real economic activity in the country; and
2. Long-term falling out of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and Construction sectors from the economy, with Public Administration & Defence clearly showing signs of contraction, albeit at the rate that is, so far, trailing contraction in overall economy over the period 2003-2012.

21/3/2013: National Accounts 2012: Ireland - Part 1

This is the first post on the QNA data for National Accounts for 2012 released today.

In this post, let's take a look at the National Accounts in Constant Market Prices Terms for GDP disaggregation by Sector of Origin.

Top-line results:

• Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector (the 'Food Island' thingy) posted a big decline y/y in 2012 in overall activity, down from EUR3,049bn to EUR2,744bn between 2011 and 2012. The sector is now down 30.6% on peak (2005) activity and 20.4% below the 2003-2012 average level of annual activity. Sector activity is down 27.1% on 2003. In brief, this is the sector is in the fifth consecutive year of contractions. 
• Industry activity rose marginally in 2012 to EUR37.269bn from EUR 37.168bn in 2011 (up 0.27% y/y). The pace of annual increases slipped from 1.88% in 2010 to 1.76% in 2011 and to 0.27% in 2012. The sector activity is down 20.53% on peak (2004) and down 9.43% on 2003-2012 average, with sector activity now running at 17.03% below 2003 levels.
• As the sub sector of Industry, Building & Construction activity continued to decline in 2012, marking 8th consecutive year of decline since the peak in 2004. The sub-sector activity dropped to EUR1.857bn in 2012 down 7.38% on 2011 level with 2012 being the first year since 2008 when activity y/y declines were in single digits percentage terms. Needless to say, the sub-sector activity is now running 86.4% below peak levels, 72.3% below 2003-2012 average and 85.1% below 2003 levels.
• Distribution, Transport and Communications sector activity rose 3.09% y/y in 2012 to mark another year of record activity at EUR36.125bn. The rate of growth y/y was robust, but behind 3.88% recorded in 2011 and 4.7% in 2010. The sector activity is now running at 25.8% ahead of 2003-2012 average and 66.71% up on 2003 level. Good performance.
• Public Administration & Defence sector didn't do a hell of a lot over the year, posting EUR7.236bn contribution to GDP in 2012, down 4.17% y/y. This was a deeper contraction than 3.58% decline in 2011, but shallower than 5.6% drop in 2010 and 4.5% in 2009. The sector activity overall is now down 16.7% on peak (2008) and is 2.93% ahead of the 2003-2012 average, while overall activity level is up massive 34.4% on 2003 level. All in, the sector is the only other sector (in addition to Distribution, Transport & Communications) that sees its activity running ahead of 2003 levels.
• Other services (including rents) sector activity rose from EUR59.252bn in 2011 to EUR59.372bn in 2012 in constant prices terms, up 0.2%, marking the first year of growth since the peak in 2006. The sector overall performance is now 5.03% below 2003-2012 average and is 0.7% behind 2003 levels.

All in, as mentioned above, only two sectors of economy are currently (end of 2012) up on 2003 levels of activity once we control for inflation: Distribution, Transport & Communications and Public Administration & Defence.

Taxes net of Subsidies fell marginally from EUR15.769bn in 2011 to EUR15.456bn in 2012, down 1.98% y/y. The rate of decline has now accelerated once again from 1.13% in 2011, but is behind 2.65% drop in 2010. Compared to peak (2006), Taxes Net of Subsidies are down 32.9% and down 17.6% on 2003-2012 average. This category contribution to GDP is now down 15% on 2003 levels once we adjust for inflation.

Overall GDP at constant market prices rose to EUR160.214bn from EUR158.725bn in 2011 up 0.94% y/y, posting slower rate of growth than 1.43% in 2011. The GDP, adjusted for inflation now stands at 5.97% below the peak at 2007 and 1.11% below 2003-2012 average. Compared to 2003 GDP is up 4.74%.

Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World recorded another outflow from Ireland of EUR28.908bn in 2012, down on outflow of EUR31.742 bn in 2011, marking the second highest rate of annual outflows during 2003-2012 period.

Lower outflows and higher GDP helped push GNP up to EUR131.306bn in 2012 from EUR126.983bn in 2011, a rise of 3.4% y/y, reversing 2.47% decline in 2011 and up on 0.94% increase in 2010. Relative to peak (2007) GNP is now down 9.61% and GNP is down 3.41% on 2003-2012 average. Compared to 2003 the GNP stands at -0.45%.

So overall, 2012 did post growth of 0.94% on GDP side in real terms and a more robust gain of 3.4% on GNP side. However, both expanded on foot of external sectors and factors, namely marginal growth in Industry (+0.27% y/y marking big slowdown on 2011 growth), Distribution, Transport & Communications (+3.09% y/y in 2012 marking another slowdown on 2011 growth rates) and Other Services (+0.2% y/y - an improvement on contraction of -0.93% in 2011). GNP growth was also underpinned by reduced outflow of funds from multinationals abroad, which is a temporary factor, likely to be reversed once MNCs begin new investment outside Ireland.

In the next post I will cover sectoral weights and GDP/GNP gap.

19/12/2012: Irish National Accounts Q3 2012 - part 2

As promised in my first post on Q3 2012 National Accounts, here are the details of the main components of Irish GDP and GNP with more short-term trends focus (first post focused on cumulated changes for the 9 months from January through September 2012).

Unfortunately, these short-term series are less impressive than cumulated series. Here's why.

First, consider GDP and GNP decomposition by sector of activity, expressed in constant market prices terms:

• Agriculture, Fishing & Forestry (AFF) subsector posted €564 million worth of activity in Q3 2012, down €477.o million (-45.8%) on Q2 2012 and down €123 million (-17.9%) y/y. This marks the second consecutive quarter of y/y declines, which technically means that the sector is in a recession. AFF sector overall share of GDP is now 1.41%, so it is a minute contributor to the GDP dynamics.
• Industry activity printed at €8,868 million in Q3 2012, down €1,659 million (-15.8%) q/q and down 4.0% y/y. Only about 1/4 of the overall decline in Industry activity came from Building & Construction sub-sector which posted another fall-off in Q3 compared to Q2 (down €17 million or -3.7% q/q and down 9.9% y/y). Overall Industry share of GDP is now at 22.15% so any movement in the sector activity is significant for headline GDP and GNP.
• Distribution, Transport and Communications (DTC) sector expanded to €8,940 million in Q3 2012 (up €1,071 million or +13.6% q/q and up 1.8% y/y). The sector now accounts for 22.33% of GDP.
• Public Administration and Defence (PAD) sector showed €37 million (+2.1%) q/q expansion in Q3 2012, printing at €1,823 million. Y/y the sector is down 4.1% (just €78 million in net reductions). The sector now accounts for 4.55% of our GDP.
• Other Services - a sector accounting for 37.4% of our GDP - increased activity by €239.0 mln (+1.6%) q/q and are up 0.3% or €47 million y/y. 
• Compared to Q3 2007: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector activity is down 27.4% (-€213mln); Industry activity is down 12.8% (-€1,298mln), of which Building & Construction is down 63.1% (-€765mln); Distribution, Transport and Communications sector is up 25.8% (+€1,832mln); Public Administration and Defence is down 14.9% (-€318mln); Other Services are down €980mln or -6.1%.

The above chart shows GDP and GNP prints, which posted the following dynamics in Constant Prices terms:

• GDP at constant factor cost (ex net taxes) was down to €36,043 million in Q3 2012 (-€865mln and -2.3% q/q). Y/y GDP at constant factor cost is up €272 million (+0.8%)
• Taxes net of subsidies rose to €3,998 million (+€353mln and +9.7% q/q) and are up €48mln (+1.2%) y/y.
• Thus, GDP at constant market prices was down to €40,041 million in Q3 2012 (down €512mln or -1.3% q/q) and up €320mln (+0.8%) y/y. Compared to 2007 levels, GDP is down 3.3% (_€1,3540mln).
• Net factor income from abroad contracted by €154mln in Q3 2012 (-2.1% q/q) compared to Q2 2012 to -€7,069mln. Year on year outflows are down €859 million or -10.8%. However, net outflows abroad are still up 17.2% (€1,038mln) on 2007. Currently, net transfer from Ireland abroad amount to 17.65% of our GDP.
• With reduced outflows to the rest of the world (primarily driven by falling transfer pricing by multinationals), our GNP in constant market prices still contracted by €358 million (-1.1%) q/q. In Q2 2012 it grew by €2,075mln (+6.6%) q/q. The robust growth in Q2 was partially offset by the decline in Q3. Year-on-year our Q3 2012 GNP is still up +€1,178mln (+3.7%). However, compared to 2007, Q3 2012 GNP is down €2,237mln (-6.4%).

As the result of the above, Irish GDP/GNP gap decreased slightly from 17.81% in Q2 2012 to 17.65% in Q3 2012.

Here are the components of the above expressed as indices, with Q1 2005 set at 100:

On seasonally-adjusted basis, expressed in Constant Market Prices terms:

• Personal Consumption of goods and services rose €160mln (+0.8%) q/q and is up €367mln (+1.8%) y/y. However, this is not the first time that personal consumption increased since the beginning of the crisis. For example, it rose €335mln in Q1 2010-Q3 2010 and by €420mln in Q3 2011-Q4 2011. 
• In real, seasonally-adjusted terms, our personal consumption of goods and services is now at the levels between Q4 2005 and Q1 2006. However, some of this 'support' for consumption is coming from significant price increases in state-controlled sectors, which are not linearly reflected in GDP deflators (price adjustments).
• Net expenditure by central and local government decline €4 million to €6,204 million in Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012 (-0.1% q/q) and is now down €172 million y/y (-2.7% y/y).
• While Personal Consumption fell €3,013 million (-12.8%) in 2007-2012 Q3 on Q3, Government spending declined €1,132 million (15.4%) over the same period of time. At annualized rates, this means a decline of personal consumption contribution to GDP of some €12 billion per annum and a decline of Government spending contribution to GDP of some €4.5 billion per annum.
• Irish Government expenditure in real terms is running at the levels comparable with Q1-Q2 2006, or a quarter ahead of where personal consumption rests. However, any biases induced to personal consumption upside from state-controlled price increases also act to generate superficially lower government spending reported here (as this is Net expenditure by the government, excluding taxes and receipts). In other words, the true difference between Government and private spending is most likely much wider than one quarter.
• Gross domestic fixed capital formation improved in Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012, rising to €3,962mln (+€315mln or €8.6% q/q), which resulted in an annual increase of €323mln (+8.9%) y/y. Still capital formation is down €7,432 million (-65.2%) on Q3 2007.
• Our fixed capital formation is now running at just 40% of Q1 2005 levels.
• Exports of goods and services rose 1.3% (+€567mln) in Q3 2012 compared to Q2 2012 (increase of €2,788mln or +6.7% y/y). Imports are up €1,005mln (+3.0%) q/q and are up €1,742 mln (+5.3%) y/y. Compared to Q3 2007, exports are now up 17.3% (+€6,598mln) and imports are down 1.2% (-€404mln).
• Irish exports now account for 108.01% of our GDP and our imports are at 83.38% of GDP.

In seasonally-adjusted terms:

• Irish GDP rose €310mln (+0.8%) q/q and €1,464mln (+3.7%) y/y, but GDP remains deeply below Q3 2007 levels (-€4,632mln or -10.1%).
• Irish GNP shrunk €245mln (-0.7%) q/q and is up €1,909mln (+6.0%) y/y. GNP remains deeply below Q3 2007 levels (-€6,357mln or -15.8%).

18/12/2012: QNA Q3 2012: Q1-Q3 cumulated results

Some positive news today on a major front with the release of Q3 2012 preliminary QNA estimates. Headlines are good, predominantly. Here is a post covering cumulated Q1-Q3 data for 2007-2012. More detailed analysis of dynamics in QNA components later tonight.

In Q1-Q3 (9 months) cumulated period:

• Irish GDP in Constant Market Prices rose from €119.261 billion in 2011 to €120.246 billion, implying y/y growth rate of 0.826%.
• Irish GNP also increased, from €94,721 million in 2011 to €97,557 million in 2012 yielding a y/y growth rate of 2.99%.
• In nominal terms (current market prices), Irish GDP was up from €119.123 billion to €123.299 billion (+3.506% y/y), while Irish GNP increased from €94.493 billion to €99.645 billion (+5.452% y/y).

Two charts to illustrate the above:

Here's for those who feel relaxing at today's reading:

• Compared to peak, Irish GDP in constant prices terms is still 5.37% below the level attained for Q1-Q3 2007, while in current terms it is 12.15% down on the peak.
• Compared to peak, Irish GNP in constant prices terms is down 7.96% and in current market prices terms it is down a massive 17.04%.

Domestic demand has continued deterioration over the first 9 months of 2012, so domestic economy is still contracting overall:

• Final Domestic Demand in constant prices terms fell in the nine months from January 2012 from €90.515 billion in 2011 to €88.987 billion (-1.69% y/y).
• Final Domestic Demand in current prices terms also fell in the nine months from January 2012 from €91.188 billion in 2011 to €90.991 billion (-0.21% y/y).
• Final Domestic Demand in constant terms is currently down 22.02% on 2007 (Q1-Q3) cumulative levels and is down 27.83% in current prices terms.

More on sub-series dynamics later tonight.

20/9/2012: 'Flat growth' and the shrinking Irish economy

Ok, folks... the latest batch of news from CSO and the official 'Green Jerseys' reaction to same would have made a fine candiate for a Nobel literature prize, were they published in a single tome with a heading Literature of Absurd on it...

We have our routine 'Housing market has bottomed out' shrills from the property pushers in the media - despite the fact that property prices continue to fall. We also have the metronome-like 'Unemployment has stabilized' tale, a chapter of gargantuan efforts to avoid mentioning the fact that fewer and fewer people actually work in Ireland, earning living and paying taxes.

Today we have a new pearl: 'Irish economy is growing once again, albeit slowly'.

Complete porkies, if you ask me. Here's the plain and simple reality of what's going on:

In constant market prices terms, Irish GDP based on constant factor cost (in other words, the real activity in the economy carried out by MNCs and domestic enterprises, net of taxes, gross of subsidies) grew 2.3% (+€819 mln) q/q in Q2 2012. Alas, as usual, q/q growth is... err... mostly meaningless. Instead, y/y comparative shows this metric shrinking €300mln (-0.8%).

What's the dynamic here? Oh, not good, either. In Q2 2011, y/y real GDP (constant factor basis) grew 3.21% y/y. In this quarter it shrunk 0.8% y/y... a negative growth swing of 4 percentage points!

Now, adding taxes (net of subsidies) to the above figure produces official real GDP (GDP expressed in constant prices terms). This stood at €40.327 billion in Q2 2012 up €744 mln on Q1 2012 (+1.9% q/q) but down 1.1% (-€442mln) y/y. Now, wait, folks... so official GDP is down y/y. Not up.

What's the dynamics of this change? Oh, well, in Q2 2011 official real GDP was up 2.86% on same period in 2010, so Irish economic growth has overall deteriorated in Q2 2012 compared to same period a year ago by a whooping 3.9 percentage points.

Next step is for us to subtract from our real GDP outflows of payments abroad (net of inflows of income from abroad) - the so-called Net Factor Income From the Rest of the World adjustment. Bear with me here. It is important.

In Q2 2012 we, as economy, have managed to send out €7.219 billion in factor payments abroad, net of what we received from abroad. Sounds a lot? Not really - this is down on €8.397bn in Q1 2012 (which added €1,178mln to our GNP) and it is down €1,385 mln on Q2 2011 (which adds same amount to our GNP compared to Q2 2011 levels).

What the above means? Here's the punchline to reality: as the result of €744mln increase in our GDP and a €1,178mln decrease in our payments abroad, our GNP officially expanded by €1.922bn in Q2 2012 q/q. Meanwhile, due to a contraction in real GDP of €442mln offset by reduction in outflows of income abroad of €1,385mln, our GNP rose €943mln (+2.9%) y/y in Q2 2012.

Thus, real economic activity in Ireland fell, y/y in Q2 2012, but because the MNCs have decided to expatriate less income out of Ireland in Q2 2012, our GNP actually rose.

Why would MNCs decide not to expatriate much of profits? For a number of reasons:

1. Lack of capital investment around the world means corporates have no incentive to move profits out of Ireland outside the immediate objective of boosting reported profits at home;
2. Booming equity markets in the US mean that there is no immediate pressure for US MNCs operating here to ship retained profits out of Ireland's tax heaven;
3. Fall-off in pharma exports from Ireland also took a bite out of the retained profits here.

Any of these have any tangible effect on our real economy? Not really. Actually - none whatsoever. 

In real economic terms, Irish economy shrunk in Q2 2012 by 1.1% (real GDP terms) y/y and that is it, folks. 

One more note. In seasonally adjusted, constant prices terms:

• Personal Consumption of Goods & Services has hit absolute record low in Q2 2012 of €19,598mln for any quarter since Q1 2007.
• Net Expenditure by Central and Local Government on Current Goods and Services has hit an absolute low of €5,934mln in Q2 2012 for the entire period since Q1 2007.
• Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation has hit a record low of €3,427mln
• Exports of Goods and Services have posted a contraction on Q1 2012 but are up €1 billion on Q2 2011
• Imports of Goods and Services have posted a q/q contraction of €1.7bn and are now at a historical low for any Q2 period of 2007-present period
• Total domestic demand is now at the absolute lowest point for any quarter since Q1 2007 and is down €1.6bn on Q1 2012 and €1.9 billion on Q2 2011.

This is not flat growth, folks. This is shrinking real economy.

Note: I will post updated charts later tonight. Stay tuned.

21/7/2012: Sunday Times July 15 - No growth in sight

This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column for July 15, 2012.

This week, the Central Statistics Office published long-awaited Quarterly National Accounts for the first quarter 2012, showing that in January-March real Gross Domestic Product fell 1.1 percent to the levels last seen around Q1 2005. Gross National product is down 1.3% and currently running at the levels comparable with Q1 2003 once inflation is factored in. Rampant outflow of multinational profits via tax arbitrage continues unabated, as GDP now exceeds GNP by over 27 percent.

There is really no consolation in the statistical fact that, as the National Accounts suggest, we have narrowly escaped the fate of our worse-off euro area counterparts, who posted three quarters of consecutive real GDP contraction since July 2011. Our true economic activity, measured by GNP is now in decline three quarters in a row in inflation-adjusted terms.

Our real economy, beyond the volatile quarter-on-quarter growth rates comparatives, hardly makes Ireland a poster child for recovery. Instead, it raises some serious questions about current policies course.

Save for Greece, five years into this crisis, we are still the second worst ranked euro area economy when it comes to overall performance across some nineteen major indicators for growth and sustainability.

Our GDP and GNP have posted the deepest contraction of all euro area (EA17) states. Assuming the relatively benign 2012 forecast by the IMF materialise. Q1 results so far point to a much worse outcome than the IMF envisions. Total investment, inclusive of the fabled FDI allegedly raining onto our battered economy, is expected to fall over 62% on 2007 levels by the year end – also the worst performance in the EA17. Despite our bravado about the booming exporting economy, our average rate of growth in exports of goods and services since 2007 is only the fifth highest in the common currency area.

Ireland’s unemployment is up by a massive 220%, the fastest rate of increase in the euro zone. Employment rate is down 20% - the sharpest contraction relative to all peers. Other than Estonia, Ireland will end 2012 with the steepest increase in government spending as a share of GDP – up 18% on 2007 levels. We have the second worst average structural Government deficit for 2007-2012 excluding banks measures and interest payments on our debt. By the end of 2012, our net Government debt (accounting for liquid assets held by the state) will be up more than eight-fold and our gross debt will rise 354%. In both of these metrics Ireland is in a league of its own compared to all other member states of the common currency area.

The latest data National Accounts data confirms the above trends, while majority of the leading economic indicators for Q2 2012 are also pointing to continued stagnation in the economy through June.

Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) – the best leading indicator of economic activity we have – are signalling virtually zero growth for the first half of 2012. Manufacturing PMI has posted a robust rate of growth in June, but the six months average remains anaemic at 50.7. The other side of the economy – services – is under water with Q2 activity lagging the poor performance achieved in the first quarter. 

In the rest of the private economy, things are getting worse, not better. Live register was up, again, in June, with standardized unemployment now at 14.9%. Numbers on long-term unemployment assistance up 6.8% year on year. Factoring in those engaged in State-run training schemes, total number of claimants for unemployment benefits is around 528,600, roughly two claimants to each five persons in full employment. Construction sector, the only hope for many long-term unemployed, posted another monthly contraction in June – marking the sharpest rate of decline since September 2011. Retail sales, are running below 2005 levels every month since January 2009 both in volume and value terms. Despite June monthly rise, consumer confidence has been bouncing up and down along a flat trend since early 2010.

Meanwhile, net voted government spending, excluding interest payments on Government debt and banking sector measures, is up 1.9% year on year in the first half of 2012 against the targeted full year 3.3% decrease. Government investment net of capital receipts is down 19.1%. This means that net voted current expenditure – dominated by social welfare, and wages paid in the public sector – is up 3.3% on same period 2011, against projected annual decrease of 2.2%. Although not quite the emergency budget territory yet, the Exchequer performance is woeful.

And the headwinds are rising when it comes to our external trade. By all leading indicators, our largest external trading partners are either stagnant (the US), shrinking (the Euro area and the UK) or rapidly reducing their imports from Europe (the BRICs and other emerging economies).

The question of whether Ireland can grow its economy out of the current crisis is by now pretty much academic. Which means we need radical growth policy reforms.

Look at the global trends. In every five-year period since 1990, euro zone average annual real economic growth rates came in behind those of the advanced economies. As a group, other advanced economies grew by some 15 percentage points faster than the euro area during the pre-crisis decade. Both, before and since the onset of the Great Recession, euro area has been a drag on growth for more dynamic economies, not a generator of opportunities. Within the euro zone, the healthiest economies during the current crisis – Germany, Finland and Austria – have been more reliant on trade outside the euro area, than any other EA17 state.

This is not about to change in our favour. Data for China shows that the US now outperforms EU as the supplier of Chinese imports. Europe’s trade with BRICs is deteriorating. Combined, BRICs, Latin America and Africa account for less than 5% of our total exports. In the world where the largest growth regions – Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America are increasingly trading and carrying out investment activities bypassing Europe, Ireland needs to wake up to the new geographies of trade and investment.

Given the severity of economic disruptions during the current crisis, Ireland requires nominal rates of growth in excess of 6-7 percent per annum over the long term. To deliver these, while staying within the euro currency will be a tough but achievable task. This requires drastic increases in real competitiveness (focusing on enhanced competition and new enterprise creation, not wages deflation alone) in domestic markets, including the markets for some of our public sector-supplied services, such as health, education, energy, transport, and so on. We also need aggressive decoupling from the EU in policies on taxation, immigration and regulation, including that in the internationally traded financial services, aiming to stimulate internal and external investment and entrepreneurship. We must review our social policies to incentivise human capital and support families and children in education and other forms of household investments.

Like it or not, but the idea that we must harmonize with Brussels on every matter of policy formation, is the exact opposite of what we should be pursuing. We should play the strategy of our national advantage, not the strategy of a collective demise.

Box-out:

Recent decision by the Government to introduce a market value-based property tax instead of the site value tax is an unfortunate loss of opportunity to fundamentally reform the system of taxation in this country. A tax levied on the property value located on a specific site effectively narrows the tax base to exclude land owners and especially those who hold land for speculative purposes in hope of property value appreciation lifting the values of their sites. In addition, compared to the site value tax, a property levy discourages investment in the most efficient use of land, and reduces returns to ordinary households from property upgrades and retrofits. Perhaps the most ridiculous assertions that emerged out of the Government consideration of the two tax measures to favour the property levy is that a site value tax would be less ‘socially fair’ and less transparent form of taxation compared to the property tax. By excluding large landowners and speculative land banks owners, and under-taxing properties set on larger sites, a property tax will be a de facto subsidy to those who own land over those who own property in proximity to valuable public amendments, such as schools, hospitals and transport links. By relating the volume of tax levy to less apparent and more numerous characteristics of the property rather than more evident and directly comparable values of the adjoining land parcels, the property tax payable within any giving neighbourhood will be far less transparent and more difficult and costly to the state to enforce than a site value tax. In a research paper I compared all measures for raising revenues for public infrastructure investments. The study showed that a site value tax is an economically optimal relative to all other tax measures, both from the points of capturing privately accruing benefits from public investment and enforcement. This paper was presented on numerous occasions to the Government officials and senior civil servants in charge of the tax policy formation over the last three years.