BlackRock Institute published their April 2014 survey of economic conditions in EMEA region. Here are some takeaways:
- "The consensus of respondents describe Russia, Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and Turkey to be in a recessionary state, with an even split of economists gauging Kazakhstan and Egypt to be a in a recessionary or contraction."
- "Over the next two quarters, the consensus shifts toward expansion for only Egypt."
- "At the 12 month horizon, the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same with the exception of Slovenia, Turkey, Russia and the Ukraine."
Russian economy specifics:
- "How do you think Russia's economy will develop over the next 12 months?" 72% of respondents expect economy to become weaker or a lot weaker
- "At this time, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy is?" 100% of respondents estimate that the Russian economy is currently in a recession.
- "Over the next 6 months, in which phase of the economic cycle would you say Russia's economy will be?" 86% of respondents expect Russian economy to remain in a recession.
- 57% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy is operating with a positive or zero output gap.
- 71% of respondents estimate that currently Russian economy operates at above trend inflation that is increasing.
"Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle with a net 78% of 40 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months – an 9% decrease from the net 87% figure last month. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy."
Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts