11/6/2013: Irish Services Index: April 2013

Good news is: on an annual basis, per CSO, in April 2013:

• Administrative and Support Service Activities rose +21.3%, 
• Information and Communication went up +15.4%, 
• Other Service Activities +4.2%, 
• Transportation and Storage +1.4% and 
• Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+0.3%) increased 

On bad news front:

• Wholesale and Retail Trade were down -4.2% and 
• Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities fell -0.6%.

The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index increased by 1.2% in  April 2013 when compared with March 2013 and there was an annual increase of 4.1%.

As you would know, I am not covering Services PMIs anymore, as these are no longer being released in any useful data format (Markit has decided to exclude reporting of actual levels of sub-components for PMIs, preferring to practically give instead its analysts personal opinion about these levels). 

However, I will continue reporting CSO data.

So here's more detailed analysis:

• Wholesale Trade sub-index rose from 106 in March to 114.1 in April, marking a 7.64% rise m/m and a decline of 4.68% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 stood at 110.23, down on 116.67 3mo MA through January 2013 and down sharply on 122.07 3mo MA through April 2012. 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 113.45, down on 121.10 6mo MA through April 2012.
• Wholesale and Retail Trade, repair of vehicles sub-index improved from 102.3 in March 2013 to 105.7 in April 2013 (+3.32%), but the index is down 4.17% on April 2012. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 104.3 against 3mo MA through April 2012 at 111.27; 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 106.32 against 6mo MA through April 2012 at 110.80.
• Transport & Storage sub-index is at 113.4 in April 2013 up marginally (+0.62%) m/m and up 1.43% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 111.83 up on year ago 3mo MA of 106.83. 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 111.18, up on 6mo MA through April 2012 at 106.73.

• Accommodation & Food Services slipped from 105.9 in March 2013 to 102.7 in April 2013 (-3.02%) and the index is up only 0.29% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 103.2, which is up on 3mo MA through April 2012 at 101.2. Similarly, 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 103.77 which is up on previous year level of 101.3.
• Much of the improvements in the above sector was driven by rising value of food services, up 3.51% y/y. Accommodation services actually fell 1.35% y/y and were down 9.07% m/m.
• Administrative and support services activity also improved m/m (+1.66%) and rose strongly by +21.31% y/y. Huge gains were recorded in the activity on 3mo MA basis y/y and 6mo MA y/y basis. I have no explanation to this other than possibly reclassification of some activities into this category, plus boom in on-line services centres in Dublin (much of google and other ICT services firms activities here relate to support and admin, rather than R&D or professional work).

• ICT services continue to boom, rising 15.42% y/yin April, although slipping 1.59% m/m from the historical record-breaking levels in March 2013. on 3mo MA basis, April 2013 stood at 122.13 strongly up on previous year levels of 109.87. On 6mo MA basis, April 2013 came in at 120.42, up on 110.42 a year ago.
• In contrast to ICT services and Admin services, Professional, scientific and technical activities index declined for the third month in a row, falling to 91.0 in April 2013 from 91.2 in March 2013 (-0.22%) and is marginally lower (-0.55%) y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 91.4 and it is virtually flat on 3mo MA through April 2012 (91.2). 6mo MA through April 2014 at 91.0 is down on 94.5 6mo MA through April 2012.

• Overall Services sector activity index rose 1.21% m/m from 107.7 in March 2013 to 109.0 in April 2013, and is up 4.11% y/y. 3mo MA through April 2013 is at 107.63 which compares marginally positively against 105.4 3mo MA a year ago. 6mo MA through April 2013 is at 107.62, also marginally up on 105.47 6mo MA through April 2012. However, 3mo MA through April 2013 was identical to 3mo MA through January 2013, implying zero growth, and 6mo MA through April 2013 was slightly ahead of 6mo MA through October 2013 (107.6 relative to 105.9).