10/3/2014: Industrial Production & Turnover: Q4 2013 & January 2014

CSO released Industrial Production & Turnover figures for January 2014 back last week, and here is an update.

Obviously, we all are familiar with the fact that Manufacturing is booming once again, thanks for PMI signals, but... table above is not exactly cheerful, is it? On an annual production volumes data, activity is down 1.4% and turnover is up only 0.2%. On 3mo basis, production volumes are up just 0.2% and turnover is down massive 5.0%. Ugly...

Let's take the following experiment. Irish industrial production data (monthly series) is pretty volatile. So instead, let's take a look at quarterly data and augment this with the latest available data for running quarter (so for Q1 2014, let's take the only data currently at hand, that covering January 2014). Furthermore, let's look at seasonally-adjusted series to strip out even more volatility. Here are some charts with quick commentary.

Traditional Sectors:

Trend down, but January 2014 is above trend.  Beyond that:

• Current running quarter is 3.44% up on Q4 2013 and Q4 2013 was up 0.35% on Q3 2013 on volume basis. Current year on year is +6.12% on volume basis. So things might be improving.

Manufacturing:

No above luck with Manufacturing: trend down and we are below trend. Beyond that:

• By turnover, current Q1 2014 is down 1.37% on Q4 2013 and Q4 2013 was down 3.47% on Q3 2013. Year on year, current is down 2.40%, while Q4 2013 was down 1.76% y/y.
• By volume, current Q1 2014 is up 0.1% on Q4 2013 and Q4 2013 was down 1.68% on Q3 2013. Year on year, current is down 1.22%, while Q4 2013 was down 0.66% y/y.

Do tell me where those PMIs are now?

Worse, you can't really blame Pharma and Chemicals for this alone. Trend in this sector is down, and we are below trend, but Q1 2014 so far showing a slight uptick"

• By turnover, current Q1 2014 is down 4.36% on Q4 2013 and Q4 2013 was down 10.19% on Q3 2013. Year on year, current is down 10.60%, while Q4 2013 was down 3.54% y/y.
• By volume, current Q1 2014 is up 1.39% on Q4 2013 but Q4 2013 was down 5.98% on Q3 2013. Year on year, current is down 2.05%, while Q4 2013 was down 1.58% y/y.

Things are ugly in Pharma, true. But this is not the sole driver of manufacturing.

Modern Sectors aka MNCs that are, allegedly, supposed to benefit from the global upturn:

Trend down, series below trend, shrinking still:

• By volume, current Q1 2014 is down 0.35% on Q4 2013 but Q4 2013 was down 4.78% on Q3 2013. Year on year, current is down 3.52%, while Q4 2013 was down 1.62% y/y.

Unpleasant.