Monday, December 9, 2013

9/12/2013: Irish Construction Sector PMI, November

Irish Construction sector PMI (Ulster Bank & Markit) is out today for November. The numbers are good.

Overall Index is down to 58.8 in November from 59.4 in October, but the reading remains firmly above 50.0 and this markets the third consecutive month of above 50.0 readings. All readings since September are statistically significantly above 50.0.

Dynamics are good, indicating solid upward trend:

  • 12mo MA through November 2013 is at 48.0 against 44.4 for the same period in 2012
  • 6mo MA improved to 52.4 in November 2013 against 42.1 a year ago
  • 3mo MA is up at 58.0 in November 2013 against 46.9 in 3mo through August 2013.

Total Activity Index is strongly driven by upward trends in Housing Construction:
  • Housing Activity index is at 60.4 in November, which is down on massive 61.7 in October.
  • 12mo MA is at 50.4 against 43.0 for the same period in 2012
  • 6mo MA is at 55.4 against 41.7 12 months ago
  • 3mo MA is at 60.5 against 50.3 for 3mo through August.

Another major driver for the upward momentum in overall Construction PMI was Commercial Activity - running in line with Housing (chart above):

  • Commercial activity index moderated to 60.0 from 61.6 in October. Commercial and Housing Activity sub-indices have been running jointly above 50.0 for 4 months in a row; in statistically significant terms this dynamic is present for three months in a row.
  • 12mo MA for Commercial Activity index remains below 50 at 47.9, but this marks a major improvement on 42.9 for 12mo average through November 2012.
  • 6mo and 3mo MAs are outperforming y/y and period-on-period. 
Only disappointment is Civil Engineering sub-index which recorded accelerated rate of decline in November at 45.7, compared to October when the reading was 47.2. November marks second consecutive month of accelerating falls.

However, November rate of decline is much shallower than was recorded a year ago (31.1).

In general, strong news on PMI front. and This supports overall Manufacturing and Services trends (see here:

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