Thursday, December 19, 2013

19/12/2013: QNA Q3 2013: Expenditure Side and External Trade

QNA results came in strong at the headline levels for Q3 2013. These were covered here:

Now, let's take a look at the GDP decomposition by expenditure line. I am referencing throughout non-seasonally adjusted series for y/y comparatives. All in constant prices.

Year on year, personal expenditure on goods and services fell 0.98% in Q3 2013 and the series were up 0.79% on Q3 2011. This is not a good result, but it is an improvement on -1.52 y/y contraction recorded in Q2 2013.

Net Expenditure by Central & Local Govt. on Current Goods & Services rose 0.68% y/y in Q3 2013, after having posted a contraction of -1.73% in Q2 2013. Compared to Q3 2011, net expenditure by Government was down -3.25% in Q3 2013.

Gross domestic fixed capital formation jumped significantly in Q3 2013 up 8.30% y/y albeit from low levels. The series are now up 18.68% on Q3 2011. In Q2 2013, fixed capital formation rose 1.42% y/y, so Q3 2013 data shows some serious improvement.

Exports of Goods and Services (net of factor income flows) rose 0.58% y/y in Q3 2013 and are up only 0.94% on Q3 2011. This is poor given how much we have staked on an exports-led recovery. Worse news: in Q2 2013 exports grew 1.09% y/y, so we are seeing continued slowdown in the rates of growth.

Exports of Goods fell 2.37% y/y in Q3 2013 on foot of a decline of 1.61% in Q2 2013. Exports of goods are now down 7.64% on Q3 2011.

Exports of Services meanwhile picked the slack from Exports of Goods contraction. Exports of Services grew 3.32% y/y in Q3 2013 having previously posted growth of 3.63% y/y in Q2 2013. In other words, strong growth in Q3, but slower than in Q2. Compared to Q3 2011, exports of services are now up cumulative 9.89%.

Imports of Goods and Services fell 1.28% y/y in Q3 2013 and are now up only 0.73% on Q3 2011. The decline was primarily driven by a 3.4% drop in imports of goods and moderated by a decline of 0.11% in terms of imports of services.

Trade Balance grew on foot of stronger trade surplus in services (+EUR747 million in Q3 2013 compared to Q3 2012) and moderated by small decline in trade deficit in goods (-EUR93 million in Q3 2013). Trade balance overall grew by EUR654 million in Q3 2013 compared to Q3 2012, up 6.56% y/y.

Thus, on the expenditure side of the National Accounts, Q3 2013 gains in GDP were supported by 

  • Growth in the Net Government Expenditure on Current Goods and Services, Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation, and Exports of Services
  • Contraction in Imports of Goods and Imports of Services

The GDP dynamics were adversely impacted by declines in:

  • Personal expenditure on goods and services,
  • Decline in Exports of goods.

Volatility remains a dominant theme in quarterly data analysis, so it is worth looking at the figures for the first 3 quarters of the year. This will be done is the next post.

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