Thursday, December 12, 2013

12/12/2013: BlackRock Institute Survey: S. America & Asia-Pacific, December 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region was covered here:

Survey results for North America and Western Europe region were covered here:

Now: Asia-Pacific and Latin America.

"This month’s Asia Pacific Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region. Out of the 14 countries covered, only India is currently described to be in a recessionary state; however over
the next 2 quarters it is expected to transition to an expansionary phase.

With regards to China, over the next 12 months, a net of 24% of 21 economists expect the economy to
weaken compared to 30% in the October."

Note: The red dot represents Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore and the Philippines, where no economists describe the country at hand to be in a recessionary state at present or over the next 6 months.

"This month’s Latin America Economic Cycle Survey presented a mixed outlook for the region.
Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Brazil and Chile are described to be in expansionary phases of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters, while Argentina’s growth is expected to deteriorate from expansion to contraction over this horizon."

"Venezuela is described by the consensus to be in a recessionary state, with no improvement to this outlook at the 6 month horizon."

The global growth outlook remains positive from both regions analysts' perspective, though Asia-Pacific analysts are more bullish on global recovery than Latin America's analysts.

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

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