Wednesday, December 25, 2013

25/12/2013: Eurocoin: Euro Area Growth Firmed Up in December

Merry Christmas to all!

Some good news from the euro area economy front on Christmas day: eurocoin - leading growth indicator for the euro area - posted another (6th consecutive month) improvement in December 2013, rising to 0.29 from 0.23 in November.

December reading marks the 4th consecutive month of the indicator above 0.0 (growth), although it remains in statistically insignificant range. This is the highest reading for the indicator since July 2011.

Latest forecast for Q4 2013 growth in euro area GDP, based on eurocoin, is 0.22-0.25%.

Chart below shows that 2013 marks the year of ECB policies starting to finally bear some fruit. The point here, of course, is that the ECB should have been much more aggressive earlier on - as this blog argued consistently since the beginning of the crisis.

However, the ECB policies are still not being able to generate the momentum strong enough to escape deflationary pressures. Chart below shows that over the last 24 months, monetary policy has failed to sustain moderate inflation and that overall policy trajectory is still driving euro area economy toward deflation.

But back to better news. Despite weaker industrial activity, eurocoin rise in December is based on broad improvements in the economy across household and business confidence.

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