Thursday, December 12, 2013

12/12/2013: BlackRock Institute Survey: EMEA, December 2013

BlackRock Investment Institute released its latest Economic Cycle Survey for EMEA region.

"With caveat on the depth of country-level responses, which can differ widely, this month’s EMEA Economic Cycle Survey presented a bullish outlook for the region. The consensus of respondents describe Slovenia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Egypt and Russia currently to be in a recessionary state.

Forward expectations:

  • Over the next 6 months, "the consensus shifts toward expansion for Russia and Egypt and an even split between expansion and contraction for Croatia."
  • "At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continues with the consensus expecting all EMEA countries to strengthen or remain the same, with the exception of Slovenia and Ukraine."

Global economy view from the region: "Globally, respondents remain positive on the global growth cycle, with a net 74% of 58 respondents expecting a strengthening world economy over the next 12 months, unchanged from last month’s report. The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy"

Note: Red dot represents Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Israel, Kazakhstan, and South Africa

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

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