CES Ifo Business Climate figures for Germany are out today, showing further gains in underlying economic conditions and expectations forward.
Year on year, business climate index reading improved 5.2% to 107.5 in August 2013, with monthly improvement of 1.2%. 3mo average over the last 3 months was 106.5 against 105.6 average for the 3mo period through May 2013 and 103.5 3mo average through August 2012.
On business situation side, index rose to 112.0 in August 2013, up 1.7% on July 2013 and 0.9% on August 2012. 3mo average through August 2013 stood at 110.5, ahead of 109.1 3mo average through May 2013, but below 112.1 average through August 2012.
Business expectations index also rose in August to 103.3 from 102.4 in July, showing a monthly gain of 0.9% and an annual gain of 9.8%. 3mo average through August 2013 is at 102.7 against 3mo average through May 2013 102.3, suggesting that pick up in overall expectations has been rather subdued. This might be due to the index overall showing lower volatility around the mean than other two indices. In other words, conservative expectations are staying closer to the mean and watching if the rest of the series do catch up with expected expansion. 3mo average through August 2012 was 95.6, suggesting that overall, there has been some serious optimism built up over the last 12 months, further warranting some moderation in the rate of optimism growth forward.
Chart to summarise:
Year on year, business climate index reading improved 5.2% to 107.5 in August 2013, with monthly improvement of 1.2%. 3mo average over the last 3 months was 106.5 against 105.6 average for the 3mo period through May 2013 and 103.5 3mo average through August 2012.
On business situation side, index rose to 112.0 in August 2013, up 1.7% on July 2013 and 0.9% on August 2012. 3mo average through August 2013 stood at 110.5, ahead of 109.1 3mo average through May 2013, but below 112.1 average through August 2012.
Business expectations index also rose in August to 103.3 from 102.4 in July, showing a monthly gain of 0.9% and an annual gain of 9.8%. 3mo average through August 2013 is at 102.7 against 3mo average through May 2013 102.3, suggesting that pick up in overall expectations has been rather subdued. This might be due to the index overall showing lower volatility around the mean than other two indices. In other words, conservative expectations are staying closer to the mean and watching if the rest of the series do catch up with expected expansion. 3mo average through August 2012 was 95.6, suggesting that overall, there has been some serious optimism built up over the last 12 months, further warranting some moderation in the rate of optimism growth forward.
Chart to summarise:
No comments:
Post a Comment