Monday, March 10, 2014

10/3/2014: NYSE Margin Accounts Busting Record Levels...


Two quick twitter posts on leverage accumulation in the markets.

First one via Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner:


Shows NYSE members debit balances in margin accounts - at historic highs (since 1960).

Second, via Ioan Smith @moved_average:


Shows the above as % of nominal GDP as third highest in history. As noted by @moved_average, currently margin accounts balances are at ca 26% of all commercial and household loans outstanding in the US banking system.

This is just NYSE... Do we need to add timing lines for QEs here?.. (Hint: see peaks...)

Monthly data on the above: http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8

Here's a good post on monthly series analysis: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php

And a telling chart from the above on growth rates in margin accounts:


Oh, and a comment from above post: margins accounts are at historic highs in real (inflation-adjusted) terms too...

Don't get too worked up if things get jittery next... cause this time (unlike in Q2 2000 and Q3 2007) things are going to be different...

Update:  via John Tracey @traceyjc84 the above expressed relative to Dow Industrials:


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