Tuesday, September 2, 2014

2/9/2014: Levada Poll: Decline in Russian Public Support for Intervention in Ukraine

Levada Centre published the latest analysis of public opinion in Russia in relation to the crisis in Ukraine. The details are here [in Russian]: http://www.levada.ru/29-08-2014/chislo-storonnikov-vtorzheniya-na-ukrainu-za-polgoda-sokratilos-vdvoe

Top results summarised:

  • Numbers of Russians who are prepared to support Russian direct engagement in an open military conflict is now below the number of those who oppose an open intervention for the first time since accession of Crimea.
  • 43% of respondents "definitely" or "likely" will not support an open military confrontation with Ukraine now stands against 41% who are ready to support such an intervention. In March 2014, 74% supported direct intervention and in May the number was 69%.
  • In March 2014, 36% of respondents said they would "definitely" support direct military intervention in Ukraine. In the latest poll the number is down to 13%.
  • Only 17% think that Russia is responsible for the crisis in Eastern Ukraine, while 75% believe that Moscow bears no responsibility.
  • 32% of respondents believe that Russia is interfering in the Ukrainian affairs, while 25% believe that Russia does interfere but should do so. 31% believe that non-interference is a correct approach.
  • Overall, 48% of respondents are against any interference, while 40% are in favour.
  • In April 2014, 35% of those surveyed viewed Eastern Ukraine as a potential member of the Russian Federation. In August poll that number fell to 21%. However, the numbers supporting independence for Eastern Ukraine rose from 25% to 40%.
  • In May, 49% of Russians approved of Russian support for pro-Russian separatists, in July this proportion peaked at 56% and has now fallen back to 50% in August. Most common appropriate support means voiced are diplomatic, economic and humanitarian aid.

The survey was conducted on 22-25 of August, based on representative sampling of 1,600 respondents from 46 regions. Statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.

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