Thursday, September 11, 2014

11/9/2014: Russian Equities and the Crisis: Update

An update of the event study on the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on Russian equities - through yesterday's close.

A chart for two main indices: MICEX (Ruble denominated) and RTS (USD denominated):

And a summary table of % changes in the indices (reed cells mark cumulative declines, green mark increases). Two indices impacts and changes are diverging due to Ruble devaluations vis-a-vis USD:

You can see very clearly that MH17 and subsequent third round of sanctions had the most dramatic impact effect (short-term shock), with most of the impact and longer-term effect accruing to the MH17 event, rather than sanctions. However, in terms of the long-term impact, Yanukovich's flight and replacement by interim Government in Kiev had the most dramatic effect on Russian markets.

Overall crisis impact is fully captured by two factors:

  1. Russian markets effectively saw downgrading of the pre-crisis (pre-January 1, 2014) trends (so there is a loss of potential growth that would have happened if there was no crisis, assuming pre-crisis trend would have been sustained - a tall assumption, given the economy slowdown was well underway before the crisis hit); and
  2. Devaluations of the Ruble since January 1 (not all of these devaluations were driven by the crisis, as I explained in numerous notes before, as the Central Bank was already moving toward a free float for the Ruble for some years now and set a target for the free flow back in the mid-2013).

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