Thursday, September 18, 2014

18/9/2014: Irish GDP Q2 2014: Sectoral Decomposition

Quarterly National Accounts for Q2 2014 for Ireland have been published by the CSO and the numbers are so-far encouraging. I will be blogging on these through out the day, so stay tuned.

In this first post on QNA results for Q2 2014, let's take a look at the seasonally un-adjusted data (allowing for year-on-year comparatives) for real GDP by sector:

All sectors output rose 7.4% y/y in real terms in Q2 2014 marking second consecutive quarter of growth and significantly outperforming 3.3% growth y/y recorded in Q1 2014. Q2 all sectors output is now at EUR42.157 billion which is the highest reading for any quarter on record.

compared to Q1 2011 output now is 10.8% higher and we are running at the rate of output some 6.3% above the 2006-2007 quarterly average.

The above is undoubtedly good news.

Sectoral growth rates (y/y) breakdown as follows:

Summary of the above charts:

  • Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector posted a massive rose in output of 13.9% y/y in Q2 2014 coming on foot of an already significant growth of 9.3% y/y in Q1 2014. This marks fourth consecutive quarter of growth in the sector, with sector activity now up 58.1% in real terms on Q1 2011 and 28.3% ahead of 2006-2007 quarterly average.
  • Industry activity rose 6.47% y/y marking the first quarter of increases. Activity shrunk 5.09% in Q1 2014. The sector performance has pushed output 6.6% above Q1 2011 levels but is still running 5.74% below 2006-2007 quarterly average. Still, good news is that growth is back.
  • Distribution, Transport, Software & Communication sector expanded by 11.3% y.y in Q2 2014 after posting growth of 10.6% y/y in Q1 2014. This marks second consecutive quarter of growth in the sector. Sector activity is now up 3.11% on Q1 2011 and is still down 2.51% on 2006-2007 levels.
  • Public Administration and Defence sector grew 3.75% y/y in Q2 2014, marking second consecutive quarter of y/y growth in a row. In Q1 2014 the sector grew by 3.67% y/y. Despite all the austerity, sector activity is now up 1.62% on Q1 2011 but overall activity is down 8.9% on 2006-2007 quarterly average.
  • Other Services sectors posted growth of 2.7% y/y in Q2 2014 and 3.9% growth in Q1 2014. Q2 2014 marked 13th consecutive quarter of positive y/y growth in the sector. Sector activity is up 9.6% on Q1 2011 and is 8.75% ahead of 2006-2007 quarterly average.
  • Building & Construction sector posted growth of 8.99% y/y in Q2 2014 which comes after 7.63% growth in the sector in Q1 2014 and marks 7th consecutive quarter of growth. Good news, however, are moderated by the realisation that levels of activity in the sector are still running 53% below those of 2006-2007 although sector has managed to grow output by 4.4% on Q1 2011.
  • Transportable Goods Industries and Utilities sector posted y/y growth of 6.3% in Q2 2014, compensating for the decline of 5.9% registered in Q1 2014. Sector activity is now 6.7% ahead of Q1 2011 and 3.13% ahead of 2006-2007 quarterly average.
Key conclusion: strong performance in growth y/y in key sectors of the economy in Q2 2014 showing no sector contracting against 2 sectors contracting y/y in Q1 2014. As expected, Q2 output came in with stronger readings than Q1 and indications are Q3 2014 is likely to be also ahead of Q1 expansion rates.

Stay tuned for more QNA data analysis here.

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