Over recent years, I occasionally returned to the famous CalculatedRisk chart plotting jobs recovery in the Great Recession against the record of post-war US recessions. At last, today, the US economy has completed the arduous task of getting back to the pre-crisis level of employment.
The chart is completed:
The job is done. 76 months - longer than 46 months in the previous record-busting recession of 2001 - it took for the US economy to regain the pre-crisis milestone.
But the lessons are yet to be learned. Since 1981 recession, every recession has been worse and worse in terms of speed of jobs recovery. Why?
Since 1981 recession, the US deployed ever increasing firepower to fight off adverse effects of recession on jobs markets. And the task is not getting easier. Why?
And finally - a scary chart to replace the above scary chart: duration of unemployment in the US has been on a massive upswing during the current Great Recession and it is yet to yield its highs:
Scary charts do go away... but this one is likely to stay with us for some time... most likely - till the next recession hits...
3 comments:
Outstanding commentary Constantin. I don't think we are in recovery mode at all as far as this Great Depression is concerned. I think we are in the eye of the storm. Decoupling of stock and property markets from real economy. Massive quantitative easing programs. Historically low interest rates. A gentle breeze may topple this domino chain in the wrong direction. I only hope the worst is over but I am not so sure.
So is the result that unemployment will become a larger part of society?
The problem with calling the former king dead is that the population of US has grown in the last 6 plus years, so that catching up with the same number of jobs is still behind.
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