Monday, June 9, 2014

9/6/2014: ESRI Consumer Confidence Indicator Moderates in May

Some hopium going out of the market in Ireland: ESRI Consumer confidence for May moderated from sky-high 87.2 in April to 79.4 in May, bringing the series slightly closer to reality mapped by Retail Sales data on the ground:

3mo MA for the series is now at 83.2, virtually flat on 3mo MA through February 2014, and on 6mo MA of 83.3. In other words, the series trending flat over 6 months, and are sitting at still sky-high levels. Meanwhile, volumes of retail trade (core, ex-motors) are rising along a decent trend, but value of retail sales is showing barely perceptible upward momentum.

Note, seasonally, for May, there is no established momentum in the series either up or down.

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