Friday, June 27, 2014

27/6/2014: Eurocoin: Euro Area Growth in Q2 ahead of Q1

CEPR and Banca d'Italia released their latest Eurocoin forecast for the euro area economy today. Here are the details:

  • In May 2014, Eurocoin posted its first decline in 11 months, falling from 0.39 in April to 0.31. Still April-May 2014 forecast for GDP growth based on Eurocoin stood at 0.35% q/q, faster than any quarter since Q1 2011. 
  • The Eurocoin remained unchanged in June 2014, implying the overall average rate of growth of around 0.34%, a moderation on April-May forecast.
  • Error-adjusted forecast range for growth is between 0.17% and 0.5%.

Per Banca d'Italia: "The deterioration in business confidence was counterbalanced by the positive contribution from the improved conditions in the financial markets and the pick-up in industrial activity."

Couple of charts to illustrate:

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