Friday, March 2, 2012

2/3/2012: RPPI for January 2012 - Things are Getting Worse, Faster

Residential Property Price Index for January released yesterday shows continuation of a dramatic downward trend in property prices that continues to confound the rents data signals over a number of months now.

Top level data first, followed by Nama valuations-linked analysis in the subsequent post.

1) Overall RPPI has fallen to 67.6 in January 2012, down 1.89% mom (the steepest decline since October 2011) and 17.36% yoy (the largest annual drop since January 2010). 3mo MA now stands at 68.87 and 12mo average rate of change is -1.58% monthly.


2) Index for house prices nationally fell to 70.4 in January from 71.7 in December 2011, implying a monthly decline of 1.81% - steepest since November 2011. Annual rate of decline is now 17.08% - the fastest rate of decline since December 2009. Annual rate of decline has been now rising every month since July 2011, same as for all properties RPPI.
3) Apartments prices index fell to 51.2 from 53.5 in December 2011, implying a 4.30% decline mom and 20.87% drop year on year. This marks the sharpest rate of monthly decline in prices since August 2011 and the sharpest drop year on year since March 2010.


4) Dublin properties index now reads 58.3 compared to December 2011 reading of 60.7. Mom prices are down 3.96% - sharpest on the record and yoy prices are down 21.11% - sharpest since February 2010.

Overall, relative to peak:

  • All properties index is down 48.20%
  • House prices index is down 46.67%
  • Apartments prices are down 56.82%
  • Dublin property prices index is down 56.65%



 Acceleration in declines in index readings is present for:

  • All properties index since November 2011 for monthly changes and since July 2011 for yoy changes
  • House prices index since December 2011 for monthly changes and for yoy changes since July 2011
  • Apartments prices index since November 2011 for monthly and yoy changes
  • Dublin property prices index since October 2011 for monthly changes and since July 2011 for yoy changes
In other words, things are getting worse faster.


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