25/7/2013: BlackRock Institute latest survey results for global economic outlook: June 2013

The latest summary of the global growth conditions from the BlackRock Investment Institute. Click on the chart to open larger version. I have highlighted Ireland on the chart.

Blue bars reflect consensus on current phase of economic development (for example, in Ireland's case, current phase is seen as being recessionary by roughly 25% of respondents to the survey). Red dot corresponds to 6mo forward expectation (in Ireland's case, 50% of respondents expect recession in Ireland to either continue or to present itself again in 6 months time).

Note: this is the view of surveyed economists and not the view of the BlackRock II. The chart is based on the "trailing 3 survey reports for the other regions we poll. In our first month of this initiative, we collected the views of over 430 economists from more than 200 institutions, spanning over 50 countries"

25/7/2013: Entrepreneurship in Ireland, 2012

Here's a recently published report on entrepreneurship in Ireland (data through 2012):  http://www.enterprise-ireland.com/EI_Corporate/en/Publications/Reports-Published-Strategies/GEM-Report-2012.pdf

Some points of note, quotes direct from the text, italics emphasis is mine:

"Less positive trends…….

• The general perception of opportunities for new businesses by people in Ireland continues at historically low levels and is far below that pertaining across the OECD and EU.
• The aspiration to become an entrepreneur remains low, and is far below that generally observed across the OECD and EU, at a time when the perceived need for entrepreneurs is greater than ever.
• Fewer people are currently planning and starting new businesses in Ireland. This is particularly the case among men.
• In respect of early stage entrepreneurs, Ireland’s position relative to other European countries has significantly declined.
• The prevalence of early stage entrepreneurs in Ireland is at historically low levels and is half of what it is in the United States.
• The level of early stage entrepreneurs that are motivated by necessity continues at a high rate.
• A marked lowering of growth ambition may be observed among men starting new businesses.

More positive trends…..

• Successful entrepreneurs continue to be well considered in Irish society, and success at entrepreneurship is considered to confer considerable status.
• There is a growing general perception of supportive coverage by the media of entrepreneurs and their activities.
• The educational attainment level among early stage entrepreneurs in Ireland is one of the highest internationally.
• More than half of all early stage entrepreneurs are focused on overseas markets and many expect a significant number of customers to be from overseas markets.
• The growth expectations among women entrepreneurs have considerably increased and there is no longer a significant gender gap in this area.
• The prevalence of owner managers of established businesses in Ireland is higher than it is across the OECD and EU.
• The level of growth expectation among early stage entrepreneurs remains at a high level."

Another point of interest: "Early stage entrepreneurship is higher among immigrant groups (7.2%) than it is among the non-immigrant population (5.8%) (Table L). This is the case in the other EU-15 countries, with the exception of the Netherlands. Immigrant early stage entrepreneurs are typically motivated by opportunity (73%), which is also the case for non-immigrant entrepreneurs (70%). More specifically, a higher percentage of first generation (3.0%) and second generation immigrants (2.9%) have recently started a business in Ireland, compared to the non-immigrant population (2.2%)."

Role of the recession: "Almost a third of those consulted identified the recession and continuing high rates of unemployment as fostering entrepreneurial activity. The view is that the high unemployment rate has reduced the fear of failure as a deterrent, as people have little to lose. The high unemployment level is forcing people to consider starting up. This point ties in with the continuing high levels of necessity entrepreneurship identified in the 2012 GEM research"

It is worth noting that involuntary entrepreneurship (due to lack of employment) is usually associated with poorer business outcomes.

On funding side: "Informal investors play a vital role in the development of new businesses. In Ireland in 2012, 3.7% of adults reported having provided funds in the past three years (June 2009 to June 2012) to a new business started by someone else. This rate was broadly similar to that reported in 2011 (3.2%). Informal investment is more pervasive in the US (5.4%), across the OECD (4.6%) and the EU-27 (4.5%). The rate in Ireland is more on a par with the EU-15 average (3.4%). The great majority (81%) of the 36,000 individuals, who provided funds as informal investors in Ireland in 2012, provided them to family, friends or work colleagues. Instances of providing investment to entrepreneurs unknown to the investor were much less common (19%)."

Some summary stats:

25/7/2013: More on Sovereign-Banks Contagion risks in Spain and Italy

Two interesting charts detailing continued rise in risk links between the sovereigns and Italian and Spanish banks:

 Both via Ioan Smith @moved_average.

25/7/2013: Ifo Business Climate Survey for Germany: July 2013

Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany is out for July. The index is up at 106.2 from 105.9 in June, marking the third consecutive month of improvements. Current situation index is at 110.1 in July, up from 109.4 in June and also marking third consecutive month of gains. expectations 6 months out remained relatively static at 102.4 against 102.5 in June. Expectations are struggling to gain solid footing, suggesting that businesses are perceiving current conditions (expansion) as being still at risk.

Per Ifo release: "Conditions in the German economy remain fair. The business climate indicator in manufacturing rose slightly. Satisfaction with the current business situation increased for the third month in succession. Business expectations declined minimally, but remain positive. …After last month’s sharp in-crease, export expectations fell somewhat. Firms nevertheless expect expansionary impulses from export business."

24/7/2013: Few Links to Thought-Provoking Articles in Economics

Few reading links on economics of inequality and income growth trends links to human capital: "Is Inequality Inhibiting Growth?" by Professor Raghuram Rajan

"Starting in the early 1970’s, advanced economies found it increasingly difficult to grow. Countries like the US and the United Kingdom eventually responded by deregulating their economies.

"Greater competition and the adoption of new technologies increased the demand for, and incomes of, highly skilled, talented, and educated workers doing non-routine jobs like consulting. More routine, once well-paying, jobs done by the unskilled or the moderately educated were automated or outsourced. So income inequality emerged, not primarily because of policies favoring the rich, but because the liberalized economy favored those equipped to take advantage of it.

"The short-sighted political response to the anxieties of those falling behind was to ease their access to credit. Faced with little regulatory restraint, banks overdosed on risky loans."

Another interesting link on income inequality data 

War for Talent is covered here: "It’s the Market: The Broad-Based Rise in the Return to Top Talent" Steven N. Kaplan and Joshua Rauh

And a very provocative, and thought-provoking paper "Defending the One Percent" by N. Gregory Mankiw.

On G20 Tax Proposals: "OECD bureacrats in new diversionary plan to harm business and hike taxes" by  Daniel J. Mitchell covers the OECD proposals for dealing with tax anomalies presented to G20. 

I wrote about these here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/07/2272013-g20-spells-out-squeeze-on-tax.html and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/07/272013-sunday-times-june-23-2013-g8-and.html

and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/02/1822013-oecd-on-corpo-tax-havens-for-g20.html

24/7/2013: CBRE Q2 2013 Irish Commercial Property Report

A very good quarterly report from CBRE on Irish Commercial Property markets in Q2 2013.

Some highlights:

In the above, I added the red line for referencing current yields to other urban locations across the EU. Pretty much suggests current valuations are in line with current macro fundamentals. Also, the chart above shows just how much more dramatic the swing has been from the cycle high to the cycle low in Dublin - wider than anywhere else.

Does this mean the market is now priced about right? Barring any dramatic improvement in the fortunes, I can't see much of an organic upside here. That said, external investment demand and longer-time investment horizons can (and probably will) push prices up. On the downside, there is the pressure of cost of long term funding news acquisitions.

On the shorter end, there are strong signs of market recovery. Per CBRE: "There was a significant improvement in transactional activity in the Irish investment market during the first half of 2013. In total, there were 34 investment transactions of more than €1 million in value completed in the six month period. In total, €603 million was invested in the first half of 2013, compared to a full year spend of €545 million in 35 transactions in the entire year last year."

More on the good news side: " Total returns in the Irish market in Q2 2013 increased by 2.3% while capital values were flat in the period according to the Investment Property Databank (IPD) Irish Index. Indeed, total returns in this index have been positive for seven consecutive quarters now." However, the chart shows continued negative capital returns:

The chart also shows that cumulated total returns over the positive 7 quarters are just about cover total losses cumulated from Q4 2009 -Q1 2010.

The headwinds remaining in the market, in my opinion are:

1. Risk to growth fundamentals in the economy: any further significant compression on current yields will have to be factoring stronger growth than recorded in 2010-2012,
2. Risk to the future long-term interest rates
3. Risk to supply/demand balance: current demand is driven largely by lack of other asset classes with comparable returns, plus surplus cash positions built up by some domestic investors. These are at risk of reversals on foreign demand side and exhaustion of domestic cash reserves. On supply side, there is a risk of NAMA eventually starting to dispose of domestic assets in earnest. 

For now, however, my feeling is that the yields are close to fundamentals-determined equilibrium.

24/7/2013: Q2 2013 CDS report: spotlight on Irish CDS performance

CMA published Q2 2013 report on CDS markets. Here's the top 30 table of riskiest sovereigns (ranked by probability of default over 5 years):

Note Ireland's significant improvement from Q1 2013, moving from 20th most risky (5 year CPD of 15.7% and mid-point CDS  at 188.64) to 27th most risky (5 year CPD down to 14.0% and CDS at 165.22).

23/7/2013: Irish Residential Property Prices: June 2013

Irish Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) is out today with latest figures for June 2013 offering a snapshot on H1 and Q2 activity in the sector, with some encouraging signs.

From the top line data: the overall property price index has managed to post the first annual increase in June since January 2008. However, overall trend in overall index remains flat, as established from Q2 2012.

• Year on year, RPPI was up 1.23% in June, having posted -1.07% growth in May 2013.
• 3mo cumulated change through June 2013 was at 2.34% and this contrasts +0.62% rise in 3 months through May 2013.
• 6mo cumulated change remains negative at -.03%, but much shallower than -1.97 6mo cumulated change through May 2013.
• M/m June rise of 1.23% was the largest m/m move up since September 2007.
• However, on 3mo MA basis, the index June reading was 65.0 - still below the levels recorded in February 2013.
• Relative to peak the index is down 49.73%, the best reading since December 2012. However, the RPPI is only 2.34% above the all-time low.

Top-line conclusion: RPPI is struggling to lift up above the flat trend despite the unprecedented level of prices collapse to-date.

Chart to illustrate the above trends:

Apartments drove the overall index up on a m/m basis and largely accounted for much of change y/y. The problem is that apartments index is based on thin data, so it is subject to much volatility.

• Houses RPPI was up 0.89% y/y in June, having posted a y.y contraction of -0.88% in May. M/m index rose 0.89%.
• 3mo cumulated increase in Houses RPPI was 2.10% in June against a rise of 0.9% in May.
• 6mo cumulated move in Houses RPPI remains negative at -0.73% - a moderation on -2.17% contraction in May.
• 3mo MA through June is 67.7, which is the best 3mo MA reading since February 2013 (67.93).
• Relative to peak, Houses RPPI is down 48.3% and current index reading is only 2.1% above the all-time low.
• Apartments RPPI reached 50.1 in June 2013, up 5.25% y/y and this contrast in the index being down 3.09% y/y in May 2013. M/m June move stood at +6.37%.
• 3mo cumulated change through June 2013 stood at +4.59% a strong reversal on -8.54% 3mo cumulated fall in May 2013.
• 6mo cumulated rise in June stood at 6.82% against 6mo cumulated rise of 3.06% in May 2013.
• Current reading of the index is 59.56% below the peak and is 9.53% ahead of the absolute low.
• However, Apartments RPPI STDEV during the crisis period has been at 23.5 against 20.3 for Houses Index. And STDEV for m/m changes was 2.36 for Apartments, against 0.84 for Houses.
• 3mo MA for Apartments index reached 48.53 in June 2013, which is above May 3mo MA, but below April.

Chart below illustrates Apartments and Houses indices trends:

Top line conclusions: Again, the flat trend remains for the houses index and there is a slight upward trend for the apartments. Both series are relatively anaemic, despite the positive moves. High volatility in Apartments index suggests that caution should be used in interpreting overall RPPI data short-term moves.

Dublin RPPI:

• Dublin RPPI rose 4.15% y/y in June 2013, having posted a rise of 1.37% y/y in May. June marks sixth consecutive month of increases in Dublin RPPI (y/y terms).
• 3mo cumulated change in June stood at 2.38% reversing the 3mo cumulated decline of -0.17% in May 2013.
• 6mo cumulated increase in June was 1.69%, reversing a -1.33% 6mo cumulated drop in may.
• Relative to peak, Dublin RPPI is now down 55.24% and relative to absolute low the index is up only 5.06%.
• 3mo MA at 59.43 in June 2013 is the best 3mo MA reading since January 2013.
• Against the peak, current reading brings us back to the levels last seen in December 2011-January 2012.

Chart to illustrate:

Top line conclusions:  Dublin RPPI is showing most significant and lasting gains of all sub-indices, backed also by medium-range volatility (STDEV for m/m changes is 1.38 for Dublin RPPI).

How significant was the skew in All Properties RPPI due to movements in Apartments? Very significant. 

• All RPPI was up 1.2% y/y in June 2013
• National Houses RPPI was up 0.9%
• National Apartments RPPI was up 5.3%
• Ex-Dublin, All RPPI was down -1.0%, Ex-Dublin Houses RPPI was down 0.9% (close to All RPPI ex-Dublin)
• Dublin All RPPI was up 4.2% with Dublin Houses RPPI up 3.6% and Dublin Apartments RPPI up 9.7%.

Hence, overall RPPI was strongly pushed up by Apartments and Apartments index was pushed up by Dublin Apartments.

23/7/2013: Ireland is not Greece... and never was...

Resting on one's laurels is a dodgy proposition. However, forgetting one's achievements is of an equally problematic virtue. To balance things up - a good reminder of Ireland's road travelled from the 1960s through 2008 and I have adjusted figures for Greece and Ireland for 2012 levels of GDP per capita based on IMF data.

Source: the original from World Bank, 2012.

Interesting bit - Ireland remains in the 'rich' club as a country that managed an elusive move from middle income economy in the 1960s to high income economy in 2000s and 2010s. Greece dropped out of the same group.

22/7/2013: That Growing Debt Pile...

In the week when Irish debt/GDP pushes above 125% that some of the luminary 'green jerseyists' said it will never do, let's say loudly to ourselves: "Ireland is not Greece..."

A gentle reminder to stay calm and not to worry, because, as we now know, debt does not matter at all... what matters is pants,.. bright pink pants...

Chart source: http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2013e1.pdf

22/7/2013: G20 Spells Out a Squeeze on Tax Arbitrage

Last week we saw the conclusion of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Moscow. The meeting covered, in part, financial regulation and international taxation issues, aimed at addressing, as the IMF put it, "international spillovers of national tax policies".

Here's what the basic set of the proposals discussed implies for Ireland - a country at the centre of these spillovers in the euro area and largest per-capita beneficiary of the international tax arbitrage after Luxembourg.

The OECD-prepared, G20 discussed 'Action Plan' on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) covers loads of technical ground. The main points of relevance to Ireland's real economy are:

1. Tax issues relating to the Digital Economy - including coverage of tax application to services, geographic distribution of tax revenues etc. In the nutshell, the G20 will aim to adapt international direct and indirect taxation rules to the digital economy, including attribution of profit 'together with the character and source of income'. In simple terms, aggressive tax base shifting from, say the UK-sold advertising revenues to, say Ireland-based pro forma sales centre. In other words, the rules will challenge the system on which much of the Ireland's comparative advantage in ICT and financial services currently rests. The threat is more genuine in my view in the case of ICT services than in the case of financial services.
2. Tighter controls over Controlled Foreign Company rules - a relatively minor issue from the point of view of Irish real economy, but having a potential to impose small adjustment on our official GDP.
3. Reduce artificial avoidance of tax application, presumably including by schemes such as Double Irish. This has potentially strong adverse impact on Irish economy.
4. Intangibles transfers within the company group are to be tightened, to reduce effectiveness of transfer pricing. Once again, this suggests pressures on IP tax arbitrage and licenses arbitrage - a core competitive point for Ireland.
5. The Plan also aims to (explicitly) develop rules to align profits with value creation. Bad news for major MNCs operations here.
6. Beefing up of data, tax and transfer pricing documentation, and reporting compliance in line with BEPS proposals - an additional significant cost for Irish companies and MNCs, although this is symmetric for all other jurisdictions, so not an issue from comparative advantage of Ireland point of view.

In effect, many proposals link directly into CCCTB structure (see my analysis of this in the G8 context here):

• Reporting on tax matters re-aligned to cover business activities and capital bases
• Focusing on documentation of the location where key business risks and business processes are located
• A country-specific breakdown of group profits and revenues
• Common anti-avoidance regime
• Services delivered on-line will migrate toward effective tax rates based on location of end-user of services
• As KPMG analysis statesd: "Change in effective rate of tax on group profits where change in transfer pricing basis for profit attribution alters the mix of profits attributable to group members". Or in other words: kiss goodbye the key pillar of tax arbitrage in Ireland via consolidation of the tax base.
• Tax base will migrate to the locations "of key functions and management and oversight of key risks"

So good luck eating that 'breakfast of champions' of the claims that the G20 proposals present no threat to Ireland's economic model. They might not spell a full-scale closure of the tax 'haven' we run, but they do present a significant costs and risks threat to our model, where it is reliant heavily on tax arbitrage. Not a catastrophe, but...

21/7/2013: WLASze Part 3: Weekend Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics

The third part of my regular WLASze: Weekly Links on Arts, Sciences and zero economics...
Parts one and two are available here and here. Enjoy!


On science, first.

The EU calls for a radical action to cut carbon emissions on Mars… well not quite, but sometime ago, they could have with some justification, some 3.6 billion years ago: here. Alas, the Martians were not to be blamed, it appears, for that environmental disaster, as much of the CO2 concentration on the Red Planet is due to rapid and massive thinning of the atmosphere, as new data from NASA's Curiosity rover shows: here.


And on arts - more specifically, architecture.

Here's an excellent retrospective of new architectural practices from around the world by the Wallpaper: http://www.wallpaper.com/directory/architects/2013

Numbers 13-16 are a delightfully whimsical translation of a barn-set modernism.
Brilliant treatment of stairs in number 29

A physical proof that modernising garden gnomes is not an improvement on the hideous original at numbers 36-38. A great attempt at doing the obvious: merging outdoors with indoors and opening up to light and view at 92-95 and 106-109… and so on… drive through this deck!

And Metropolis mag has another, much more pret-a-porter stairway treatment - http://www.metropolismag.com/July-August-2013/Ready-to-Build/


My most favourite museum in the world, NYC's MOMA is having two exhibitions not to miss: the first one is the Rain Room installation: http://www.moma.org/visit/calendar/exhibitions/1380

and Le Corbusier: An Atlas of Modern Landscapes retrospective http://www.moma.org/visit/calendar/exhibitions/1321. The clinical painting devoid of dynamism (Le Corbusier was a lousy painter, as most architects are) contrasted by surgical ability to restructure space (Le Corbusier was a brilliant architect, intuitive and bold at the same time, dynamic and imposing, a fine balancing act of mass and space).

Both exhibitions are, ultimately, about forced interactions between external and internal , both are basically about pushing nature into our domain (yes, in that - reversed - order).


Moscow Biennale is coming up in the second half of September:
http://www.theartnewspaper.ru/posts/104/
Official site here: http://5th.moscowbiennale.ru/ru/ or in English: http://5th.moscowbiennale.ru/en/
You can see previous Moscow Biennale site here: http://4th.moscowbiennale.ru/ru/
Special Projects section is of interest while the rest of the site is still being assembled: http://5th.moscowbiennale.ru/en/program/special_projects.html


An interesting article on the issue of whether dinosaurs were cold- or warm-blooded suggesting that the latest evidence points to the latter possibility: link here.


Dinosaurs might have been warm blooded, but our news flow this week, concerning Detroit, was very much cold-blooded, with Detroit being in the news - for the wrong reasons, but possible for the right outcome as I argued here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/07/1972013-detroit-officially-files-for.html. However, as they point out in Detroit's favourite graffiti message:

For all its multiple 'fails', there's always a reminder of the Detroit's good corners. DIA is one… a superb museum…
http://www.dia.org/object-info/1b623d3b-2a68-4c93-8fea-2073126e55e0.aspx?position=50
Kiki Smith, Lot's Wife, 1997
http://www.dia.org/object-info/df738a50-a117-494f-a6dd-3ceedfd6f442.aspx?position=55
Beverly Fishman, C.E.L. 1997 MediumCollage, resin, paint
http://www.dia.org/object-info/b421345c-1220-444c-827e-f5329e997fbd.aspx?position=91
Clyfford Still 1951. Oil on Canvas - my favourite of all DIA collection:

And, H/T to @FrankSunTimes we also have Detroit's music legacy: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-23377160. MrsG has encyclopedic knowledge of this stuff...


Last point on the arts via ArsTechnica:
http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/07/algorithmically-generated-artworks-comprise-average-of-faces-from-movies/#image-3

I am not sure this qualifies as art, since the whole project is a simplified form of averaging based on dimensional measurements. There is a very clear separation between a mechanical averaging exercise and a perceptive interpretation of the average by an artist or a human observer.

To see this, look no further than the most famous 'averaging' attempt by an artist (actually two artists together - Vitaly Komar and Alex Melamid) here: http://awp.diaart.org/km/painting.html. Artists' official webpage is here: http://www.komarandmelamid.org/. The duo brilliantly took their Most Wanted and Least Wanted paintings series to music: http://www.wired.com/listening_post/2008/04/a-scientific-at/


And for another dose of smiles, recall Mr Grigory Yakovlevich Perelman (You say who? I say Poincare) who in 2006 was confirmed by the Science journal to have proved the famous Poincare Conjecture that eluded mathematicians from 1904… Mr Perelman has a beautiful mind. And as such, he is rather eccentric, earning him number 1 spot in Top 10 Odd News Stories of 2011: http://www.upi.com/News_Photos/Features/Top-10-Odd-News-Stories-of-2011/5963/ (H/T to @greentak for spotting the list). One obviously wonders what his Mom response was when he came back home with the news: "Ma, I told em to shove their 1 million dollars where the sun doesn't shine, cause I can control the universe, ya know!" Needless to say, Mr Perelman has not been seen in the news ever since… Note, the Dude also declined Fields Medal (2006) which is the equivalent of the Nobel Prize in mathematics.

So little does Mr Perelman engage with the media or the public, that his life is already attracting that voyeuristic attention which can only be attracted by the unattainable (oh, human nature) - there's a German book on his life out last month:  http://www.welt.de/geschichte/article117427879/Die-wahnhafte-Welt-des-russischen-Rechen-Genies.html.

Here are some good academic links on Perelman's proof of Poincare Conjecture: http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tao/285g.1.08s/ You can feel your brain twist reading this and after about an hour, you too can get to the point of controlling the universe... just don't tell your Ma, please... And should you be at risk of gaining such powers, a non-technical discussion: http://theconversation.com/millennium-prize-the-poincar-conjecture-4245.

Image from the Clay Institute and a write up: http://www.claymath.org/millennium/Poincare_Conjecture/


The end of WLASze for this week…