24/7/2013: Q2 2013 CDS report: spotlight on Irish CDS performance

CMA published Q2 2013 report on CDS markets. Here's the top 30 table of riskiest sovereigns (ranked by probability of default over 5 years):

Note Ireland's significant improvement from Q1 2013, moving from 20th most risky (5 year CPD of 15.7% and mid-point CDS  at 188.64) to 27th most risky (5 year CPD down to 14.0% and CDS at 165.22).

12/6/2013: Statement, Questions, Facts

Statement: "She pointed out that one in five of credit union loans was in arrears for more than nine weeks. This 20pc figure compares with 11pc of mortgage holders being in arrears for three months or more."

Source: http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/credit-unions-warned-many-loans-will-not-be-paid-back-29337885.html

Question 1: Given that both Credit Unions and banks are regulated from the same Central Bank, why are we using different time bases for comparatives on NPLs?

Fact: 11.9% is the actual percentage of mortgages in arrears (by account numbers) over 90 days, per latest official data available (Q4 2012), which rounds to 12% not 11%.
Fact: Including BTLs, 13.04% of all mortgages were 90 days and more in arrears (by accounts) and 18.2% by outstanding amounts.

Question 2: Given the above, why is the Registar of Credit Unions referencing 11%?

Fact: Balance of mortgages in arrears over 90 days in Q4 2012 was 15.8%.

Question 3: Should we reference balances for comparatives?

Fact: in Q4 2012 all mortgages in arrears (>30 days or over 4 weeks and given reporting and registration lags, closer to probably 6-7 weeks) amounted to 19.3% of all mortgages by account numbers and 24.9% of all mortgages by outstanding amounts. All of the sudden, that vast difference implied in the quote above is... err... rather much smaller.

Aside: why are we now ca 2 weeks behind the normal release schedule for mortgages arrears data?

21/12/2012: Slight upgrade for Ireland

Nice small present for the Day After (yep, that 'End of the World' thingy passed peacefully): Euromoney Credit Risk survey gave Ireland a small, but welcome upgrade:

Note that Ireland is just one of 3 countries receiving an upgrade.

Not a hugely significant development, but a nice step - 1 place up in the global rankings, now to 45th highest risk country (meaning there are 44 countries that rank less risky than Ireland). Do note, however, that our systemic risk scores in Structural Assessment has slipped, while Credit Ratings and Debt Indicators remained static.