17/4/2014: Savings and Income in Ireland: ILCU new survey data

New survey from the ILCU on income and savings conditions for Irish households shows:

• 1,696,000 people in Ireland have EUR100 or less left at the end of each month once the bills and taxes are paid, up 32,000 on December 2013 figure.
• Total population of Ireland aged 15 and older is estimated by the CSO to be 3,585,400, which means that a whooping 47% of people are living on incomes with basically zero risk cushion when it comes to covering normal expenses and with no means for securing retirement savings.
• 1,154,000 live on income that delivers only EUR50 or less at the end of the month for payments and consumption over and above the necessities and number that is up 56,000 on December 2013.
• On improvement side, 470,000 people are left with zero disposable income after paying their normal bills - a drop of 10,000 on December 2013 survey.
• Another improvement is that people are increasing their savings capacity: 44% of respondents in April 2014 survey said they were in the position to save, a rise on 39% in April 2013. The above suggests that precautionary savings might be picking up again.

Details here: http://www.creditunion.ie/communications/news/2014/title,8266,en.php

Here is a recent research note from ESRI on trends in Irish savings: http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/JACB201415/RN20140101.pdf

One trend is the disconnect between savings of 21-35 year olds (up and sustained above other demographic groups) and those over 35 years old (sustained gap to younger demographic group):

And here is intensity of propensity to save:

The above shows that propensity to save in first instance of surplus income (precautionary savings-consistent indicator) is stable for older demographic, up-trending for middle-aged demographic and rising for younger demographic.

12/6/2013: Statement, Questions, Facts

Statement: "She pointed out that one in five of credit union loans was in arrears for more than nine weeks. This 20pc figure compares with 11pc of mortgage holders being in arrears for three months or more."

Source: http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/credit-unions-warned-many-loans-will-not-be-paid-back-29337885.html

Question 1: Given that both Credit Unions and banks are regulated from the same Central Bank, why are we using different time bases for comparatives on NPLs?

Fact: 11.9% is the actual percentage of mortgages in arrears (by account numbers) over 90 days, per latest official data available (Q4 2012), which rounds to 12% not 11%.
Fact: Including BTLs, 13.04% of all mortgages were 90 days and more in arrears (by accounts) and 18.2% by outstanding amounts.

Question 2: Given the above, why is the Registar of Credit Unions referencing 11%?

Fact: Balance of mortgages in arrears over 90 days in Q4 2012 was 15.8%.

Question 3: Should we reference balances for comparatives?

Fact: in Q4 2012 all mortgages in arrears (>30 days or over 4 weeks and given reporting and registration lags, closer to probably 6-7 weeks) amounted to 19.3% of all mortgages by account numbers and 24.9% of all mortgages by outstanding amounts. All of the sudden, that vast difference implied in the quote above is... err... rather much smaller.

Aside: why are we now ca 2 weeks behind the normal release schedule for mortgages arrears data?