Saturday, August 23, 2014

23/8/2014: BlackRock Institute Survey: N. America & W. Europe, August 2014

BlackRock Investment Institute released the latest Economic Cycle Survey results for North America and Western Europe. Here are the main points (emphasis mine):

"This month’s North America and Western Europe Economic Cycle Survey presented a positive outlook on global growth, with a net of 59% of 74 economists expecting the world economy will get stronger over the next year, compared to net 81% figure in last month’s report."

Global outlook: "The consensus of economists project mid-cycle expansion over the next 6 months for the global economy. At the 12 month horizon, the positive theme continued with the consensus expecting all economies spanned by the survey to strengthen or stay the same."

Regional outlook for Euro area: "Eurozone is described to be in an expansionary phase of the cycle and expected to remain so over the next 2 quarters. Within the bloc, most respondents described Greece, Italy and France to be in a recessionary state, with the even split between contraction or recession for Portugal and Finland. Over the next 6 months, the consensus shifts toward expansion for Finland, France and Italy and an even split between contraction or recession for Greece and Portugal.

US and North America: "Over the Atlantic, the consensus view is firmly that North America as a whole is in mid-cycle expansion and is to remain so over the next 6 months."

Two charts to illustrate:

Note: Red dot denotes Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland.

Previous month results are here:

Note: these views reflect opinions of survey respondents, not that of the BlackRock Investment Institute. Also note: cover of countries is relatively uneven, with some countries being assessed by a relatively small number of experts.

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