Previous posts covering QNHS release for Q2 2014 provided analysis of
- Breakdown of population over 15 years of age by their principal economic status: employed, unemployed, in retirement, students, engaged at home, and 'others': http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/3182014-qnhs-by-principal-economic.html
- Unemployment and Participation Rates: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/3082014-both-unemployment-and.html
- Duration of Unemployment, including distribution by Age Cohorts: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/08/3082014-irish-unemployment-plight-of.html
In the present post, a quick summary of changes in overall dependency ratio. I define a ratio of those at work to total population. This is imprecise as we only have estimated population figures for the year, and year coverage is for 12 months through April each year. The data is directionally-indicative more than actual levels, so many caveats here. However it does show where this economy is heading in terms of how many people support via work the rest of the population.
Here are the trends, set against 5 year averages:
In H1 2014, the ratio of those at work to total population declined to 0.3997 from 0.4026 in H2 2013 and up on 0.3927 in H2 2013. This is less material than the fact that current average (from H1 2013 through H1 2014) is running at 0.3983 - the lowest for any 5 year period on record.
In simple terms, there are fewer people supporting through work larger number of those who do not work for any reason.
A cynical member of government seeing trends like that would think to himself or herself that they must promote emigration to get the figure under control.
Where previously dependecy ratios were high with a single working man supporting a wife working in the home and a family of five or six now the dependents would be unrelated to the person supporting them and I wouldn't fancy having to pay for rent allowance for people who choose to live in Dublin because that is where they come from when rental prices in Dublin are so high.
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