Monday, December 12, 2011

12/12/2011: QNHS Q3 2011

Headline unemployment number out of QNHS for Q3 2011 is at 14.4% up on 14.2% in Q2. This is bad, but not as bad as two other core labour market performance parameters.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Irish employment fell by 20,500 (-1.1%) in Q3 2011. This follows on from a seasonally adjusted fall in employment of 4,100 (-0.2%) in Q2 2011 - an acceleration of 5-fold!

Unemployment increased by 15,700 (+5.3%) in the year to Q3 2011 and the total number of persons unemployed now stands at 314,700.

Meanwhile, the long-term unemployment rate increased from 6.5% to 8.4% over the year to Q3 2011. Long-term unemployment accounted for 56.3% of total unemployment in Q3 2011 compared with 47.0% a year earlier and 25.5% in the third quarter of 2009.

The total number of persons in the labour force in the third quarter of 2011 was 2,120,300, representing a decrease of 30,200 (-1.4%) over the year. This compares with a labour force decrease of 51,800 (-2.4%) in the year to Q3 2010.

Charts to illustrate the above:

Adding to this emigration, the above chart paints the picture of mass-exodus from the labour force, most likely due to twin effects: layoffs and tax increases.

Now, updating figures for public v private sector employment:

 CSO provides more accurate, by their own admission, figures for public sector employment in the Table A3 of the QNHS release. Here is the summary, excluding temporary Census 2011 staff:

  • Civil service employment in Q3 2011 stood at 39,900, up on Q1 2011 39,500 reading and unchanged on Q3 2010. In Q3 2008 the same number stood at 43,000 so net reductions on pre-crisis level are 3,100 or 7.2%.
  • Total public sector excluding Semi-State bodies stood at 339,900 in Q3 2011, down 8,400 on Q3 2010 and 5.6% lower than in Q3 2008.
  • Total public sector employment including Semi-State bodies is now at 392,900, down from 399,000 in Q1 2011 and down 8,200 on Q3 2010. Compared to Q3 2008, public sector total employment is down 24,000 or 5.8%.
  • Total private sector employment is at 1,123,600, down from 1,147,800 (-2.1%) year on year and down 194,800 on pre-crisis levels or -14.8%.
So to summarize - public sector employment is down 5.8% relative to pre-crisis levels, while private sector employment is down 14.8%.

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