12/12/19: Ireland's Jobs Creation Track Record: Raising Some Questions

Doing some research on the state of precariat in modern labor markets, I came across some interesting data from the 'poster country' of the post-GFC recovery: Ireland.

Ireland's economy and its recovery from the crisis are both characterised by the huge role played by the internationally-trading multinational corporations. In recent years, these companies have been gearing up for the upcoming OECD-led BEPS reforms (more on this coming up next month in my usual contribution to the Manning Financial publication, but you can read academic-level analysis o the BEPS here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3406260). The strategic shift this entails involves MNCs domiciling into Ireland intangible property and new business functions to create a larger 'footprint' in the economy. With this, employment in MNCs operations in Dublin and elsewhere boomed.

Why is this important? Because the main story of the Celtic Tiger revival has been about the aforementioned jobs creation and accompanying dramatic drop in official unemployment. Less covered in the media and politicians' statements, over the same period of time as 'jobs creation' was allegedly booming, Irish labour force participation remained well below pre-crisis levels (meaning there were more discouraged unemployed who stopped being counted as unemployed). Even less attention has been paid to the quality of jobs creation.

The above chart partially reflects the latter concern. It shows that full-time employment as a a share of total working age population has improved from the bottom of the series at the peak of the recession, but the rebound has been largely incomplete. Similarly (not shown in the chart) the percentage of those in part-time employment as a share of total number of those in employment has remained above pre-crisis levels. Over 1998 through the first half of 2008 (the pre-crisis period), that share averaged 17.5 percent. This rose to above 23 percent in the years of the crisis (2H 2008 - 2013). It remained at around 23 percent through 4Q 2016, and has declined to around 20.3-20.5 percent since then. This too signals that the quality of jobs being added even in the mature stage of the recovery is still lagging the quality of jobs in the pre-crisis period.

Now, imagine what these figures would have been were it not for the MNCs latest tax shenanigans...

20/2/19: Broader Measures of Irish Unemployment 4Q 2018

The latest Labour Force Survey for 4Q 2018 for Ireland, published by CSO, shows some decent employment increases over 2018, and a welcomed, but shallow, rise in the labour force participation rates. Alongside with a decrease (over FY 2018) in the headline unemployment rate, these are welcome changes, consistent with overall economic growth picture for the state.

One, much less-reported in the media, set of metrics for labour markets performance is the set of broader unemployment measures provided by the CSO. These are known as Potential Labour Supply stats (PLS1-PLS4). The measures also show improvements over 2018, just in line with overall employment growth. However, these measures clearly indicate that after 11 years running, the 2008-2014 crises remain still evident in the labour force statistics for Ireland.

Here is a chart of all four PLS measures, compared to their pre-2008 averages:

Note: Increase in PLS2-PLS4 series at 3Q 2017 is down to change in assessment methodology under the LFS replacing QNHS, with data pre-3Q 2017 adjusted to reflect that change by the CSO.

As a reminder, the above data series are defined as:

• PLS1 adds discouraged workers. These are individuals who are out of work but who have become disillusioned with job search. 
• PLS2 includes all individuals in Potential Additional Labour Force (PALF). The PALF is made up of two groups: persons seeking work but not immediately available and persons available to work but not seeking, of which discouraged workers make up the largest number. 
• PLS3 includes all those in the previous two categories (PLS1 and PLS2) along with persons outside the labour force but not in education or training. 
• PLS4 is the broadest measure of unemployment or potential labour supply and is calculated by adding part-time underemployed workers to PLS3. Part-time underemployed workers are individuals currently working part time who are willing and available to work additional hours. The broadest measure of unemployment (PLS4) stood at 13.7 per cent in 4Q 2016. At 4Q 2017 it was 18.7 per cent and by 4Q 2018 it was down to 17.5 per cent.

30/7/18: Broader Unemployment vs Official Unemployment: Ireland

In the first post (see above) looking at the broader measures of unemployment and dependency ratios, recall that CSO publishes several extended series for broader unemployment rates. 

The official unemployment rate at 1Q 2018 stood at 6.4 percent (well within the pre-crisis historical range of the average of 5.31 percent and the 99% confidence interval of (3.70%, 6.92%). In more simple terms, statistically, the current official unemployment rate is indistinguishable from the average rate prevailing in 1Q 1998 - 4Q 2007. Which is the good thing, implying that in official terms, Irelands economy has recovered from the crisis at last. In fact, the recovery in official terms has been attained in 4Q 2017.

However, the CSO also reports the PLS2 measure of broader unemployment. The Above analysis was based on reported PLS1 data, covering unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percentage of the labour force. Adding to the PLS1 those in potential additional labour force (basically able bodied adults who are neither employed nor unemployed, nor discouraged, and are not in studies or formal training), the CSO gets PLS2 measure of broader unemployment. In 1Q 208 this number read 10.2% of the Labour Force, plus Potential Additional Labour Force, which was statistically higher than the pre-Crisis average of 6.1% (falling into the 99% confidence interval range of (4.39%, 7.81%). In other words, the economy has not yet recovered from the Crisis based on PLS2 broader unemployment measure.

Extending PLS2 to cover all unemployed, plus those who want a job and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training, in 1Q 2018 the broader PLS3 unemployment measure stood at 14.2 percent, unchanged on 4Q 2017. As with PLS2, the 1Q 2018 reading for PLS3 falls well beyond the range of the pre-crisis historical average of 8.36% (with 99% confidence interval of (6.52%, 10.20%).

As noted above, by two broader unemployment measures: PS2 and PLS3, Irish economy has not recovered from the crisis, even if we take a relatively benign recovery measure of the economy reaching the pre-crisis 1Q 1998 - 4Q 2007 average rate of unemployment. 

Worse, taking 4 year moving average and a 4 year rolling standard deviation in PS3 rates, 1Q 2018 PLS3 rate of 14.2% is closer to the upper margin of the 99% confidence interval for 1Q 2018 based on prior 4 years of data (the CI is given by (9.81%, 15.63%) range). Which means that 1Q 2018 data shows no statistically significant break-out from the PLS3 broader unemployment dynamics of the past 4 years. The same holds for the 5 years MA and rolling STDEV. 

So while the official unemployment readings are showing a very robust recovery, broader measures of unemployment continue to trend in line with the economy still carrying the hefty legacy of the recent crises. 

24/11/15: Over-skilled & Under-Employed: Welcome to the Brave New World of Europe

Irish policymakers are keen telling us that jobs creation has been robust and of high quality in recent years. Which, thus, begs a question: why does OECD data show Ireland as having one of the most severe mismatches between workforce skills and employment?

Apparently, based on OECD data, Irish economy is not exactly offering jobs on par with our fabled skills. And, apparently, based on OECD data, our illustrious workforce holds a big untapped potential for productivity gains that are not being realised by the inflows of MNCs and FDI and domestic economy jobs creation to-date.

OECD doesn't quite offer an Ireland-specific explanation of this paradox, but it does offer an insight as to why the same phenomenon plagues virtually all of Europe:

Apparently, the quality of firms (or their systems for allocating Human Capital or both) in Europe is just not up to par. It turns out that the Irish disease of underemployment is a European disease.

This is especially tragic, given that we have a huge over-skilling present in the economy - in basic terms, our skills levels are too high for what our economy is capable of absorbing:

Few years ago, I quipped in my Sunday Times (now defunct) column that we are heading for Unemployed PhDs crisis. It looks like we have arrived.

So welcome to the Brave New World where years in education and training and years of on-the-job experience count for zilch when it comes to affording pensions, savings and investments.

5/8/15: Irish monthly Unemployment Rate remains stuck at 9.7%

CSO data on estimated unemployment (that used to be released with Live Register) shows estimated unemployment steady at 9.7% in July, for the third month in a row.

• Officially, there were 208,900 unemployed 15-74 year olds in Ireland in July 2015, up 300 on June 2015. 3mo average through July is at 208,833 against 3mo average through April 2015 at 211,833, an improvement of 3,000 on 3mo average basis. Compared to July 2011, there were 107,500 fewer officially unemployed in Ireland. Compared to July 2014, number of unemployed in Ireland fell 32,400.
• However, factoring in those participating in State-established Activation Programmes, number of unemployed in Ireland stood at 289,788 (estimated using lagged data for Activation Programmes participation) in July, down 77,658 on July 2011 and down 16,128 on July 2014.
• There were 37,600 younger unemployed in Ireland in July 2015 (15-24 year olds), up 700 on June 2015 and down 8,200 on July 2014. The number of younger unemployed declined 28,500 compared to July 2011. 3mo average number of younger unemployed through July 2015 was 37,233 against 40,300 average for the 3 months through April 2015. 

• Estimated unemployment rate for 15-74 year olds stood at 9.7% in July, unchanged on May and June, down on 9.8% in March and April. Unemployment rate is down 5 percentage points on July 2011 and 1.5 percentage points on July 2014. Last 4 months marked the slowest sequence of declines in unemployment rate since March 2014.
• Estimated unemployment rate for younger workers was 20.2% in July 2015 compared to 19.9% in June 2015. The unemployment rate declined 8.4 percentage points compared to July 2011 and was down 3.4 percentage points on July 2014.

The key point is the slowdown in the unemployment rate reductions. Over 2012, average monthly rate of reduction in unemployment was 0.083%,  this rose to 0.153% average over 2013 and 0.167% over 2014. So far, over 7 months of 2015 the average monthly rate of unemployment rate decline was 0.071%.

21/9/2014: Ireland's Performance: Some Gains, Some Pains

Last week I gave a quick interview to Swiss Dukascopy TV. The link is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9Qi9r-7PSE


Here are some of my notes for the programme.


Q: Ireland’s unemployment rate fell to five-year low of 11.5 per cent. Fitch restored its A grade to the Irish economy. Noonan believes the upgrade reflects significant progress made in repairing the economy. 

Ireland has shown some significant improvements in unemployment and jobs creation areas and the economy is now growing, at least in official accounts terms, in part driven by changes to GDP and GNP accounting standards. These are well-documented and there is little point of dwelling on the figures.

However, less noticed is the fact that the latest figures for jobs market and population trends remain worrying.

Unemployment, officially, eased to 11.5% as you mentioned. But broader unemployment remains stubbornly high at 21.6% if you include underemployed, discouraged workers and all others who want a job, but cannot find one. If you add to this figure net emigration of working age adults and those who are not counted as unemployed because they are engaged in State Training Programmes, underlying ‘jobless’ rate reaches even higher. Another problem is that the declines in broader measures of unemployment from the peak are running at just about 1/2 the rate of official unemployment rate declines.

People are still dropping out of the labour force. Official Participation rate fell from 60.5% in Q2 2013 to 60% in Q2 2014. This below historical average of 60.8%. The Dependency ratio rose, albeit marginally, in H1 2014 compared to H1 2013. Over the last 3 years of the recovery, dependency ratio remained unchanged at the levels well above historical averages, some 7% above the average currently.

The problem is that the economy is generating jobs, but these jobs are either lower quality - when they cover domestic sectors of the economy and especially agriculture, or high quality jobs in the internationally-trading sectors, where employment is generally being created for younger, international workers. As the result, long-term unemployment amongst older workers is stubbornly high.

So Irish economy is an economy of two halves: one half is the economy that is saddled with high debt burdens, slow growth and in some cases, continued contraction. Another half is the economy with more robust growth. The problem is much of the latter half is imaginary economy of Services MNCs shifting profits through Ireland with little impact on the ground. The first half - the suffering one - is the real economy.


Q: Ireland has lost nearly a quarter of a million young people in five years due to emigration. This is one reason why some are skeptical about the recovery as they believe that there are still not enough jobs. Do you think we have seen enough evidence, which shows significant improvement in the labour market?

Latest emigration figures are somewhat positive for Ireland. We have recorded a decline in net emigration in 12 months through April 2014. This fell from 33,100 in 2013 to 21,400 in 2014. Much of this is down to two factors: some jobs creation in the economy is helpful, but also due to immigration increase from the countries outside the EU. This is good news. Bad news is that this is the 5th year of continued net emigration from the country, matching previous record back in the late 1980s and 1990s. In numbers terms, things are worse than then. In 5 years of 1987-1991, 133,700 Irish residents left the country, net of those arriving. In the 5 years through 2014, the number is 143,800.

So the crisis is easing, but it still is a crisis. And increasingly, people who leave today are people with decent jobs, seeking better career and pay prospects abroad, fleeing high cost of living and taxes. This means we are losing higher quality human capital.


Q: What other positive improvements in the economy are you expecting to see and do you see any downside risks remaining?

On the positive side, we are seeing continued gains in activity in core sectors of the economy. Especially encouraging are the signs of ongoing revival in manufacturing. Services, when we strip out the superficial figures from the MNCs, such as Google, Facebook, Twitter etc, are still lagging, but I would expect this to pick up too. Investment is rising - not dramatically, but with some upward support forward. Much of this down to booming local property markets in Dublin. This is ok for now, as we have a massive lag in terms of supply of housing and even commercial real estate that built up over the years of the crisis. There is a risk of a new bubble emerging in the resale property markets, but this bubble is still only a risk.  Part of investment increase is also down to reclassification of R&D spending from being counted as a business expenditure prior to Q1 2014 to now counted as business investment. However, some indicators (PMIs and imports flows in capital goods and machinery categories) are pointing to a pick up in investment.

The downside risks are banks, retail interest rates cycle (potential for higher cost of servicing existent debt pile in the real economy - a risk that is still quite some time off), credit supply shortages (credit continues to decline in the economy and now we are seeing some downward pressures on deposits too). Beyond this, there is a risk of misallocated investment - investment flowing not to entrepreneurial activity, but to re-sale property markets - something that Ireland is always at a risk of.

I suspect that Irish economy will continue to grow at higher rates than the euro area for the next 12 months. But this growth will continue to come in at levels below where we need to be to actively deleverage our private sector and public sector debts.


Q: And what are the main trends we are witnessing in the Irish bond market right now? 

There is basically no longer any connection between economic fundamentals - as opposed to monetary policy expectations - and the sovereign debt markets in the euro area. Take Credit Default Swaps markets, for example: Irish CDS are at around 53-54 mark, implying cumulative 5 year probability of default of around 4.62%. That is for a country with debt/GDP ratio of over 120% and relative to the real economic real capacity measured by GNP at around 135%. Take a look at Italy, with moderately higher public debt levels and more benign private sector debts: Italy is running at a probability of default of 8.29%.

The markets expectation is for the ECB to deploy a traditional QE on a large scale through its Assets Purchasing Programme - currently being developed.

Problem is: eurozone (and Ireland with it) is suffering from a breakdown in lending mechanism, lack of transmission of low policy rates to retail rates and credit supply. This is not going to be repaired by a traditional QE. It is, therefore, crucial that the ECB deploys a functional ABS purchases programme and scales up its TLTROs and better targets them.

Irish bond yields were, for 10 year paper, down to around 1.8 percent in August from 2.23 percent in July. Yields declines are in line with the rest of the euro area and its ‘periphery’. Has there been any significantly positive news flow to sustain these valuations? Not really. We are in a de facto sovereign bond markets bubble. It can be sustained for some months ahead, but sooner or later, monetary tightening will begin, currency valuations will change, and with this, the tide will start going out. Who will be caught without their proverbial swimming trunks on, to use Warren Buffet's analogy? All economies with significant overhang of private debt - first, second, economies with significant government debt overhang. Now do the maths: Ireland is one of the more indebted economies in the world when it comes to private debt. And we have non-benign sovereign debt levels. We simply must stay the course of continued reforms in order to prepare for the potential crunch down the road.


Overall, Ireland is clearly starting to build up growth and employment momentum, even when we control for the accounting standards changes on GDP and GNP side. But risks still remain, of course. The next few months will be crucial in defining the pre-conditions for growth over 2015-2016. A steady push for more structural reforms, especially completing the unfinished work in protected domestic sectors and developing and deploying real, sustainable and long-term productivity enhancing changes in the public sector will be vital.

30/8/2014: Irish Unemployment: The Plight of Long-Term Unemployed Older Workers

Some blogposts based on the latest QNHS data for Q2 2014 are due next, so to start with:

Duration of Unemployment in Ireland:

Two tables below summarise y/y and current on Q1 2011 (tenure of the present Coalition Government) changes in unemployment by age groups and duration of unemployment.

Couple of things worth mentioning (keep in mind, analysis of other aspects of unemployment are to follow, so we are focusing here on duration of unemployment):

1. Overall unemployment declined. This is good news, albeit not very new nor very interesting.
2. Y/y there were more significant declines in long-term unemployment for all those in the labour force (year on year, down 16.3% for those unemployed 1 year and over as opposed to a decline of 15.4% for those in unemployment in general). 
3. There were comparable declines in unemployment compared to Q1 2011 for those in long-term unemployment (down 17.2%) as for all unemployed (down 17.3%).
4. Caveat to (2) and (3) above: while these are good numbers, longer term unemployment declines are more heavily influenced by drop outs from the workforce than other durations.
5. In year-on-year terms, 15-24 years old have performed significantly better than average in terms of declines in unemployment of any duration and somewhat better than average in terms of declines in long-term unemployment. This suggests that some component of the current younger long-term unemployed is still structural - and cannot be easily removed by switching them into either education, training or into new jobs. Younger long-term unemployed also performed better than average for their reference group in terms of current levels compared to Q1 2011. This suggests that there have been some successes in shifting younger people off unemployment and longer-term unemployment too. Which is good news.
6. In year-on-year terms, mid-age group of long-term unemployed outperformed the average in terms of declines in unemployment (-20.9% against -16.3% average). But overall declines in unemployment in this group are basically around average (-15.8% against -15.4% for the overall group). Things are better for this category of workers both in short and long-term unemployment when compared to Q1 2011. Again, this is good news.
7. Bad news are for the category of workers 45 years of age and over. Why? In year-on-year terms, their unemployment rates declined less than across all age categories (-11.8% for all 45+ years of age against -15.4% for all workers) and in comparison to Q1 2011, their unemployment levels are higher (+2.7% for all 45+ years of age against -17.3% for all workers). Even worse news are for the long-term unemployed workers of age 45 and over: their unemployment rates declined much less than across all age categories (-8.1% for all 45+ years of age against -16.3% for all workers) and in comparison to Q1 2011, their unemployment levels are significantly higher (+14.4% for all 45+ years of age against -17.2% for all workers). This is the bad news: older workers are becoming increasingly less and less employable and the jobs being created in the economy, as well as training and activation schemes made available by the state are not working for this group.

Thus, overall, share of longer-term unemployed is declining, but remains still very high, while share of the long-term unemployed in the older age cohort of workers is rising:

The problem of long-term unemployment is bad enough - unemployment of duration in excess of 6-12 months has very long-term effect on employability of the workers, their skills, their psychological well-being, but also permanent effect on their wages and the probability of future jobs losses spells, and so on. The problem of long-term older workers is worse. Workers left without the job for a year or so, whilst in their older age are facing much greater barrier to re-entry into the workforce and suffer much more significant losses to their pensions, health status and social standing than their younger counterparts. They are also much harder to re-train and up-skill, so activation programmes generally designed to deal with the acute unemployment crises are not suitable for their needs. 

Stay tuned for more analysis of QNHS figures.

21/7/2014: Why a Wave of Low-Pay Public Sector Jobs Applications?

Employment stats and claims have puzzled many in recent months. Government claimed variable numbers at different points in time, ranging between jobs created at 61,000 to 67,000 and so on. Much analysis has been provided of these claims and other numbers on this blog and many other, often divergent, often close-enough and so forth. All, however, points to the fact that jobs are being added in the economy and that at least some of the declines in unemployment rate are down to new positions being posted and filled.

Which raises a hugely surprising question: if private sectors jobs are being created, why is there such a huge surplus of unemployed applying for jobs in the private sector? Evidence of the latter is not systematic and not regular, but here is one snapshot: http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/28500-scramble-for-civil-service-jobs-at-11-an-hour-30444949.html

Note that the public sector jobs being rushed-at are not at the top or even the middle of pay & perks distribution. These are roughly EUR11/hour jobs, at the bottom of the career ladder and the recruits face the prospect of:

1. Higher taxes,
2. Lower non-wage benefits, 
3. Increased workloads (compared to the incumbents and past employees), and
4. Prospect of slower career progressions (early retirements took out a large share of senior employees and their positions are being filled internally, without any prospect of younger recruits qualifying for them).

One answer is that for all the changes in employment stats we had over the recent months, we still have huge levels of unemployment and underemployment as the legacy of the crisis. On underemployment side, take the percentages of workers in working less than full-time hours as a share of total employment pool. In Q1 2008, 7.5% of all workers in employment worked less than 20 hours/week, in Q1 2014 the percentage was 8.1%. Over the same period of time, % of workers working 20-29 hours per week rose from 10.9% to 12.8%, percentage working 30-34 hours per week rose from 4.3% to 4.5%. Percentage of workers working more than 35 hours per week dropped from 66.4% to 61.9%. Counting in those working less than full-time hours and those on variable hours, 38.1% of our employment pool are not in full-time employment against 33.6% back in Q1 2008. 

In Q1 2008, there were 113,600 individuals who considered themselves underemployed, in Q1 2014 the number was 258,100. And there are 46,500 more people who are working part-time and consider themselves underemployed today compared to Q3 2008 (earliest we have data for), while numbers of working-age adults not in the labour-force are still up 121,300 on Q1 2008.

And in the core age categories, applying for these jobs, the percentage of 15-24 year old unemployed relative to total population of that age group was 9.58% in Q1 2008. This stood at 25.31% in Q1 2014.

In other words, it is easy to forget that things are still very ugly when it comes to employment situation in Ireland.

2/7/2014: Live Register by Nationality: June 2014 and Q2 2014

In the previous two posts (linked here) I covered top level data on Live Register for June 2014, and the Government "Score Card' comparatives between Q2 2014 and Q1 2011 when the current Coalition came to power. This post covers some details relating to foreign nationals on Live Register.

As of June 2014, there were

• 398,813 people officially on the Live Register (in other words, excluding those who received Live Register supports but were enrolled into State Training Programmes). This marked a decline of 8.39% y/y
• Of the above, 331,463 were Irish Nationals, representing 83.1% of total Live Register counts. Year on year, June 2014 numbers of Irish Nationals on LR is down 8.12% which is less than overall decline in the LR. A year ago, Irish Nationals represented 82.9% of total LR counts. So proportionally, Irish Nationals are now slightly more prevalent on LR than a year ago.
• In June 2014, there were 67,350 non-Irish Nationals on the LR, representing 16.9% of the total LR counts. This represents a decline of 9.73% y/y. A year ago in June 2013, non-Irish Nationals represented 17.1% of the LR.
• 15,034 UK nationals were on LR in Ireland in June 2014, representing a y/y decline of 10.0%, the second sharpest drop of all nationalities groups.
• There were 3,751 EU15 (ex-Ireland & UK) nationals on the LR in June 2014, virtually unchanged (up on 3,750) on June 2013.
• There were 36,772 Accession States (EU-12) nationals on the LR in June, representing a decline of 9.5% y/y. In June 2014, nationals of the Accession States accounted for 9.2% of the total LR counts, down from 9.3% in June 2013. In other words, proportionally, the numbers of Accession States nationals on LR have dropped more significantly than the decline in LR itself. This category posted the third steepest decline in LR numbers.
• Non-EU nationals listed on LR amounted to 11,793 as of June 2014, a decline of 12.8% on June 2013. Proportionally, they accounted for just under 3% of the LR total counts in June 2014, down slightly on just over 3.1% in June 2013. This category posted the overall steepest rate of decline in LR numbers y/y.

Charts to illustrate:

A table below summarises changes in quarterly averages terms for Q2 2014:

This largely confirms the same observations made about June 2014 figures.

2/7/2014: Live Register: Changes on Q1 2011 & Government 'Score Card'

In the previous post I covered Live Register (top numbers) for June. Here, as promised, a sort of 'Score Card' for the Government tenure period - looking at the LR performance over the period from Q1 2011 through Q2 2014. This is summarised in the table below:

Note one simple exercise, taking the rate of improvement in figures over either 3 years and a quarter (entire tenure of the Government) or over the last 12 months (quarterly averages basis), we can look at the number of years we are still away from getting the LR and its underlying components to some sort of a 'norm' (selected as the average of 2007-2008 period). Two things are evident from this exercise:

1. The task ahead is still awfully large and in no case are we out of the storm until around 2019-2020; and
2. The task is being made easier in recent months as things have been improving more rapidly

This confirms my earlier analysis that the current crisis does not appear to be as easily solvable as the one of the 1980s (you can see some of this here).

It would not be fair to criticise this Government for the problem of unemployment. And it would be wrong not to recognise the fact that the numbers are improving and the rate of improvement has accelerated in the last 18 months. Still, noting the caveats to the improvements that I cited in the earlier post on this subject, and considering the effect of State Training Programmes on LR (the cornerstone of Government labour market policies endorsed fully by the Troika) there is more of this road yet to travel than what has been marked over the last 3 years.

2/7/2014: Live Register: June 2014

Live Register figures for June 2014 are out today, so here are some updates.

Seasonally un-adjusted LR stood at 398,813 in June 2014, which is down 8.39% y/y down 36,544. In May 2014 the LR was down 7.81% y/y so June marks an improvement in the rate of Live Register declines.

Factoring in participants in State Training Programmes, total number of individuals in receipt of Live Register supports in June 2014 was 473,700 which is 5.68% lower (28,521) than in June 2013. The rate of decline in total Live Register Recipients numbers moderated in June, since in May 2014 it fell 6.98% y/y.

Chart to illustrate:

June marked the slowest rate of LR declines (when factoring in State Training Programmes participants) since February 2014. However, since December 2013, the annual rates of decline in LR+STP numbers have run above 5%, every month, against average 2.57% declines in January-November 2013.

On the other hand, official LR declines hit record in June, dropping 8.39% y/y, the steepest rate of annual decline since the crisis began.

All of the above are positives, but subject to two caveats:

1. We do not know how much of the LR reduction is down to emigration
2. We do not know how much of it is down to exits from the labour force.

Data for labour force itself comes with a quarterly lag, so all we have to go by currently is Q1 2014 figure, when the labour force rose to 2,146,300 compared to 2,137,500 in Q1 2013 - an increase y/y of 8,800. Rising net labour force could have come from younger workers coming into the LF for the first time (some of them are not finding jobs, some are) and it can mean that older workers who exited the LF are coming back. We do not know net drivers for the 8,800 increase, so we cannot speculate as to what effect on LR this has had.

What we do, however, know (with 1 quarter lag, again) is that LR recipients as share of labour force is still trending above 2008-present average and although it is coming down, the proportion remains stuck above 20%. 

2008-present average for LR+STP as % of labour force is 21.1%, current June 2014 reading is at 22.1% (assuming labour force for Q1 2014), and March 2014 reading was 22.0% - very close to June (March figure is based on Q1 2014 data, so it is more likely to be correct). In June 2013 this proportion was 23.1% and in March 2013 it was 23.9%, which means we have some improvement. However, we are still far from 1998-2007 average of 9.5%.

So the good news is: LR is down. Better news is: much of the decrease is not due to State Training Programmes. Bad news: there is still a lot of road left to travel before we get anywhere near normal levels of LR and the progress is not rapid.

Government 2011-present scorecard on LR - in the next post.

5/3/2014: Broader Measures of Unemployment in Ireland: QNHS Q4 2013

Completing the coverage of Q4 2013 QNHS results for Ireland.

• First post covering detailed analysis of employment by sectors: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2722014-employment-by-sectors-qnhs-q4.html
• Second post covering employment across broader sectors and categories: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-new-employment-across-broader.html
• Third post covering Participation and Unemployment Rates: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-participation-and-unemployment.html
• Fourth post covering duration of unemployment by age group: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-duration-of-unemployment-qnhs.html

Now, let's take a look at broader measures of unemployment.

Methodology note: CSO reports the following measures of broader unemployment:

• PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers. This indicator is broadly comparable to the previously published S1 indicator. In the nutshell, PLS1 = unemployed persons plus discouraged workers.
• PLS2 = PLS1 + Potential Additional Labour Force
• PLS3 = PLS2 + others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in Education and training.
• PLS4 = PLS3 + plus underemployed

In addition, I use CSO data from Live Register and emigration to add two more metrics:

• PLS4+STP: PLS4 + State Training Programmes Participant
• PLS4+STPE: PLS4 + State Training Programmes Participants + Emigration

So let's take a look first at labour force. The data is not seasonally-adjusted.

In Q4 2013 there were 2,163,000 people in labour force in Ireland, an increase of 19,600 year on year (+0.9%). A small increase, but a welcome one, suggesting that emigration is not offsetting demographic inflows of workers into the labour force. However, the level of labour force is still below Q4 2011 and is down 137,000 on pre-crisis peak. On average over the entire 2013, levels of labour force were 110,600 behind the pre-crisis period average levels.

As chart above shows, the greater challenge for us is the flat-trending labour force over the period of 2011-2013.

Table and chart below summarise changes in the broader measures of unemployment:

The key takeaway from the above charts and the table is shallower declines in the broadest measures of unemployment officially reported (PLS2-PLS4) compared to PLS1 and the adverse impact of 'sticky' State Training Programmes on the measure. It appears that these programmes are not moving workers out of unemployment fast enough.

Keeping in mind that Emigration is imputed only through April 2013 (we do not have official data beyond that), the PLS4+STP+E measure likely underestimates overall changes in broad unemployment.

Just how bad things are on overall unemployment front? With caveats to data and estimation errors, the above shows that in Q4 2013, 31.7% of Irish potential (including emigrants and state training schemes participants) labour force was either unemployed, underemployed, discouraged from seeking employment, not seeking employment for some reason other than being in education, toiling for free at Job Bridge and other fine 'activation' programmes or 'partying' abroad. Happy times...

That number, incidentally, is down from 32.5% in Q4 2012, but is still above 30.9 in Q4 2011.

28/2/2014: Duration of Unemployment: QNHS Q4 2013

Continuing with the coverage of Q4 2013 QNHS results for Ireland:
- First post covering detailed analysis of employment by sectors: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2722014-employment-by-sectors-qnhs-q4.html
- Second post covering employment across broader sectors and categories: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-new-employment-across-broader.html
- Third post covering Participation and Unemployment Rates: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-participation-and-unemployment.html

In the current post let us consider changes in duration of unemployment.

The CSO reports two basic duration metrics:
- Less than 1 year,
- 1 year and over
And the data covers different age groups:
- All population 15 years and older
- Population 15-24 years of age,
- Population 25-44 years of age, and
- Population 45 years of age and older.

Here are the charts and quick commentary on these. The data is not seasonally-adjusted, so there is a lot of volatility and I am not going to do q/q analysis here.

For overall population 15 years of age and over:

• Q4 2013 total unemployment declined 14.05% (41,400 in level terms) compared to Q4 2012. In 2012, Q4 y/y decline was -6.1% (-19,300 in level terms). Thus, 2013 numbers are much better compered to 2012 numbers, as one should expect.
• Of these, unemployment numbers for duration less than 1 year have declined 18% (-20,900) in Q4 2013. Te good news - this reversed 2012 y/y rise of 2.0% (+2,300).
• Unemployment with duration over 1 year has fallen as well, in Q4 2013 this was down 11.8% (-20,900) compared to Q4 2012, which is a small gain on decline recorded in Q4 2012 (y/y -10% and -19,700).

So good news here is that numbers are declining for both long-term and short-term unemployed. However, while overall unemployment numbers have now fallen to the levels below those recorded in Q4 2009 (though ahead of those in Q4 2008), long-term unemployed numbers are down to the levels below those recorded in Q4 2010 and are way ahead of those in Q4 2009.

Since the current Government came to power (H1 2011), unemployed numbers for those over the age 15 are down 59,300, of which 36,050 declines came from the ranks of short-term unemployed and 22,050 declines came from the ranks of long-term unemployed.

Given the difficulty of reducing long-term unemployment compared to short-term unemployment, this is still a good record.

However, given that we do not know how many of long-term unemployed are gaining jobs vs how many are dropping out of the labour force (emigration or exits from workforce) we really have little to go in identifying how god the above aggregates really are.

Charts below plot unemployment by duration for different age groups.

Youth unemployment (15-24 years of age) is shrinking. Across total youth unemployment, in Q4 2013 numbers unemployed fell 17.3% y/y (down 10,200 in level terms), building on 12.9% (-8,700) decline in Q4 2012.

Compared to H1 2011, youth unemployment is down 19,950 (-29%) overall, with 11,000 of this decline coming from short-term unemployed figures and 8,450 from long-term unemployed ranks.

The problem with the above numbers is that we do not know the sources for these declines in youth unemployment. These, in addition to people gaining jobs, include demographic transition (entry of new young workers and exists of previously younger workers into the next category of 25-44 year olds), exits to and entries from education and training, including State Training programmes, emigration, including short-term migration on post-education visas and so on).

The weakest performance by age group is in the 45 and over category. Here, in Q4 2013 the numbers unemployed declined only 8.6% y/y (down 6,900 in level terms). The good news is that this reversed the rise in unemployment in this category recorded in 12 months through Q4 2012 (+3.0% and +2,300). Compared to H1 2011, numbers unemployed in this age group are still higher (+2.8% and +2,000). Numbers of long-term unemployed dipped in Q4 2013 only slightly (by 6.7% or -3,700) and compared to H1 2011 long-term unemployment in this age category is still up +11.4% or +5,250.

So overall, these are pretty solid numbers,with core reading showing that total number of unemployed for age 15 and over is currently at the lowest level for any Q4 period since (and including) Q4 2009.

Lastly, on severity of long-term unemployment, consider the chart plotting percentage of long-term unemployed in each age group total unemployment numbers:

This clearly shows that since around H2 2012, the positive trends in overall unemployment are broadly translating into symmetric reductions in unemployment for both short-term and long-term unemployed for all age groups. Again, this is a positive trend in the short run, as long-term unemployment is the hardest (or the stickiest) of all forms of unemployment and we can expect an upward trend in these charts. This was indeed the case in the period prior to H2 2012. Since then, however, we are seeing reductions in unemployment of relatively similar proportions for short-term and long-term unemployed.

28/2/2014: Participation and Unemployment Rates: QNHS Q4 2013

Having covered sectoral and broader aggregates QNHS results for employment levels (see post here for links: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-new-employment-across-broader.html), it is now time to take a look at participation rate and unemployment rate.

At the end of Q4 2013, seasonally-adjusted participation rate stood at 60.4%, up on 60.3% in Q3 2013 and 59.8% in Q4 2012. Compared to H1 2011 average (the period when the current Government came to power), the participation rate is up 0.3 percentage points.

Historical average for the seasonally-adjusted rate is 60.77% so we are just a whisker away from hitting this landmark. At the current rate of adjustment, we should be there around Q2-Q3 2014.

At the end of Q4 2013, official seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 12.1 from 12.7 in Q3 2013 (a very strong decline),  this marks the second sharpest correction downward in unemployment rate for the entire period of the crisis.

Over the year, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has fallen full 2.1 percentage points from 14.2 to 12.1, improving on 2.0 percentage points decline y/y in Q3 2013. Compared to H1 2011, unemployment rate is now down 2.5 percentage points.

Q4 2013 marks the fifth consecutive quarter of declines in unemployment rate (q/q terms) and current rate is at the levels comparable with Q2 2009. All of which is very good news, despite all the possible caveats to data arising from potential impact of emigration and state training programmes participation (I will be covering these figures in my analysis of broader measures of unemployment as usual, next).

28/2/2014: New Employment Across Broader Categories: QNHS Q4 2013

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2722014-employment-by-sectors-qnhs-q4.html), I covered detailed breakdowns in employment numbers changes across various sectors of the economy. Here, I will briefly identify sub-trends relating to aggregate data.

A caveat: per my discussion before, I will also report here numbers in employment ex-agriculture. In my view, it is questionable as to how agricultural employment is registered in the first place, since many/some of today's famers used to be construction sector employees or self-employed contractors. How many? We do not know. How many claimed unemployment in the past and now, having run-out of benefits, declared themselves to be farmers or farm employees for the purpose of optimising extraction of subsidies or supports? We do not know. Hence, I will omit farming employment from consideration in one sub-set of the aggregate figures (clearly labeled and identified below). This is done not because all of the employment in this sector is somehow 'bad' or 'unproductive' but because

1. we do not know how much of this employment is real and of what quality, and
2. employment in agriculture is different in nature (and in valued added) to employment in all other sectors of the economy (this is the reason why many other jurisdictions report non-farm employment numbers and/or private non-farm employment numbers).

Definitions for table and chart below:

• Non-agricultural Private Sectors include all sectors, with exception of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, and Public & State-controlled Sectors Employment (as defined below)
• Public & State-controlled Sectors Employment covers employment in Public admin & defence, social security (O), Education (P) and Human health & social work (Q). This grouping is not designed to measure public sector employment levels (I will blog on these later separately), but rather identify separately employment in the economy relating to sectors largely controlled by public sector and heavily influenced by state policies on employment and activity.
• High-value added activities employment covers the following sectors: Information and communication (J), Professional, scientific & technical activities (M), Education (P), Human health & social work (Q), Financial, insurance & real estate (K,L)

Table below summarises changes on H1 2011 average and Q4 2013:

The claim is that there were 60,900 jobs added (employment created) in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. Of these, slightly less than half were added in the private non-agricultural employment sectors (29,600), while Public & State-controlled Sectors employment grew by 4,500 and agricultural employment expanded by 26,800. The numbers are strong and positive.

High-value added sectors of employment showed weaker performance, adding only 12,100 new employees in 12 months through Q4 2013. This, of course, comes on foot of strong performance in 2012, as evidenced by the total number in sector employment rising by 23,600 between H1 2011 and Q4 2013.

Although it is unclear if they include any of the State Training Programmes participants (if they do, as we know they are excluded from unemployment counts), then the numbers are less impressive.

Dynamics across the categories are shown in the chart below:

Dynamics across all aggregates are positive, with exception of the Public & State-controlled Sectors where things are moving sideways. Not quite down significantly and not up. Pick up in non-agricultural private sector employment is weak and unconvincing for now, so it would be good to see steady gains over 2014 in this category.

One thing to keep in mind is that the claimed 61,000 new jobs created is a suspect claim for two reasons:

1) It is subject to modification on the basis of quality adjustments (in part, I will do this when I am reviewing full-time vs part-time employment figures; and in part due to agricultural employment issues highlighted above)

2) The impact of the State Training Programmes, which are for now unknown in terms of how they register in the above data

On the other hands, there have been new jobs added in both higher value-added sectors and in non-agricultural private sectors, as detailed above. This, undoubtedly is a good news.

Stay tuned for more analysis of QNHS data tomorrow.

27/2/2014: Employment by Sectors: QNHS Q4 2013

Quarterly National Household Survey is out for Q4 2013. Here is the first post looking at the sectoral jobs distribution and jobs 'creation' or rather employment additions.

The next post will cover aggregate employment levels data.

Key to tables below: red denotes reduced numbers in employment in specific sub-sector/sector, green denotes increases in employment. In the tables, I reference current level of employment on H1 2011 average - the period when the current Government came to power.

Table 1:

As the above shows, there was a massive recorded increase in numbers in employment in agriculture. These numbers are driven by the unknown factors, as they are impacted by revaluations applied by the CSO. CSO detail the issues involved with this data in their notes: http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2013/qnhs_q42013.pdf
so there is no need for me to go into deep explanations.

Outside Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, there were modest y/y gains in Construction sector, totalling just 400 jobs. For all the reported activity in the sector - with investors flocking to our shores and building industry posting alleged revivals, there is preciously little to show here in terms of jobs creation since the current Government came to power. Still, good news is that employment is up y/y. May this be a trend, rather than a blip. Construction sector employment has been trending at around Q4 2013 levels since Q1 2011, showing no serious uplifts.

In contrast, Wholesale & Retail Trade, etc sector saw massive drop off in employment, down 3,000 in a year through Q4 2013. The sector is now at the levels last seen in Q4 2004, and Q2 2013 was the second lowest quarterly reading over the current crisis period.

Transportation & Storage sector is basically showing the same signs as Construction sector, with a small rise in employment of just 600 jobs in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. The sector is still down on H1 2011. Q4 2013 marks the second lowest Q4 on record for the period of the crisis.

Accommodation & Food Services sector is gaining jobs at a nice pace. Employment is up 23,150 since H1 2011 and of this increase, 17,400 came in the twelve months through Q4 2013. This is an unambiguous positive, since the sector is now very close to regaining 2007 highs in employment.

Table 2:

As above shows, things are slipping somewhat in the Information & Communication sector, with employment gains since H1 2011 running at a a strong 7,250 on H1 2011, but employment levels down modest 700 jobs in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. Still, Q4 2012 was the absolute record level for employment in the sector, so some retrenchment, especially mild, is ok. The problem, of course, is that this sector is the focal point of all the talk about Irish economy becoming a haven for ICT services jobs. The technical and specialist jobs in this area go into this category, while business services jobs are absorbed into the next two categories.

The above explains why we are witnessing a significant rise in employment in Professional, Scientific & Technical activities sector, where employment rose 11,500 in Q4 2013 compared to H1 2011, and the rise was even sharper (by 13,000) in 12 months through Q4 2013. Very good signal, of course, is that employment in this sector of activities was on a strong rise now since Q4 2011 and we are now just 2,900 jobs shy of the all-time high posted in Q2 2008.

Things were, however, more mixed in Administrative & Support Services sector, where Q4 2013 employment recorded a decent rise of 1,300 jobs compared to Q4 2012, but still posted a loss of 2,600 jobs compared to H1 2011. We are currently running on flat trend from Q4 2009-Q1 2010 albeit with high volatility in the series.

Public Administration & Defence have been shrinking in employment levels, with employment decline of 1,000 in 12 months through Q4 2013. Over the period from H1 2011, employment in this sector is down 6,800, which sounds impressive, as long as we assume that there was no reclassification of employees from this category to other state-controlled or state-related areas, such as Health and Education, Transport etc. I will blog on public sector employment numbers separately, so stay tuned for more analysis.

Education has returned higher employment in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012 - a rise of 1,600, but the levels of employment remain lower (by a very small number of 250) compared to H1 2011. It would be interesting to know if the latest changes are driven by private employment, part-time employment or full-time public employment. Alas, we do not have that information.

Table 3

As with Education, Human Health & Social Work also posted an increase in employment over 12 months through Q4 2013, rising by a very significant 3,900. Despite all the 'cuts' talk, sector employment is now 10,400 ahead of where it was in H1 2011.

The chart below summarises the trends in Human Health & Social Work, Education and Public Administration & Defence:

Back to table 3 above:

Industry employment (excluding Construction) rose strongly, some 6,400 in 12 months through Q4 2013, and employment growth is more moderate, at +4,650 when compared against H1 2011 levels. This is good news and confirms my thesis that we are witnessing some (albeit still fragile) organic recovery in the sector.

Services sectors on the aggregate basis posted a rise of 29,300 jobs in 12 months though Q4 2013 and there was a very similar increase on H1 2011 figures.

However, there was strong contraction in employment in the Financial Services, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with employment down 5,300 on H1 2011 and 5,700 on Q4 2012.

In the next post, I will take a look at the Total Employment, Non-Agricultural Employment, Public Sector and State-Controlled Sectors Employment and other core aggregates.

9/1/2014: Live Register: December 2013

Live Register for December was published earlier this week. Let's take a look at the recent changes and trends.

Using seasonally-adjusted data:

• December 2013 LR stood at 402,800, lowest reading since May 2009 and down 6.7% y/y. October 2013 reading was down 6.2% on October 2012, so strong downward trend is clearly present.
• Good news is that in 2013 the LR declines came alongside increases in labour force participation. In Q3 2013, LR averaged 416,100, down 19,633 y/y, while labour force participation increased 16,300. We don't have data for labour force participation for Q4 2013 year, so that comparative will have to wait.
• Over Q4 2013, average Live Register numbers fell 2.39% on Q3 2013 average and was down 6.15% year on year. The latter marks acceleration in LR declines : in Q3 2013 LR average was down 4.51% y/y.
• Overall seasonally-adjusted LR declined 28,800 y/y in December and was down 3,300 m/m.

Under-25 years of age: 

• Number of LR recipients under 25 years of age stood at 62,400 in December 2013, down 11.6% y/y (-8,200) and down 900 on October 2013.
• Stripping out some volatility, Q4 2013 average was down 3.46% q/q and 11.1% y/y for those under 25 years of age.

Casual and Part-time Workers: 

• 81,382 casual and part-time workers were on the Live Register in December 2013, down 7.6% y/y
• On a quarterly averages basis, Q4 2013 figure was 4.2% lower than Q3 and 6.5% lower than Q4 2013.

Coupled with lower jobs creation for the younger workers and slower growth in part-time employment reported in Q3 2013 QNHS data, the above facts suggests that significant share of overall improvement in the Live Register can be down to exits from the LR that are neither registering as unemployed nor employed. This, of course, would mean they are either dropping off unemployment schemes due to expiration of benefits and/or emigrating. Alas, we have no real data on what happens to those who exit the LR schemes.

However, we do have data on State Training Programmes (STPs) participation - counting individuals who do receive LR financial supports, yet are not counted as being on LR. Do note, we also have a lag in reporting of these numbers with the latest data currently available for November 2013.

• In November 2013, 85,738 individuals were in STPs - up 2% (+1,677). M/m STPs participants rose 1,100, accounting for almost 1/3 of the 3,500 decline in overall live register in October-November 2013.
• Combining STP participants and official LR counts, total number of those on unemployment supports in December 2013 stood at 488,538 (using November LR figure) against November count of 491,838.

On average, in Q4 2013, 23% of Irish workforce was in receipt of unemployment assistance, up on 22.2% in Q3 2013 and down on 23.1% in Q2 2013. In Q4 2012 the same proportion was 24.1%.

The good news is that even accounting for those on STPs, Live Register total has fallen back in 2013. In Q4 2013 average total LR+STPs numbers were down ca 4.7% y/y (assuming there is no dramatic change in STPs numbers when these are reported for December).

Some trends next.

First overall LR and LR with training programmes included:

Both are off-peaks (good thing, assuming it is happening not by throwing people into poverty), but while Official Live Register is trending strongly down, once training programmes are included, the downward trend is shallower.

Live Register for under-25 year olds:

Again, good trend - downward and strong - stronger rate of recovery than in the early 1990s. Of course we also have more outflows due to emigration today than in the 1990s.

Overall, 25 year-olds as proportion of total Live Register today are at their historical low of 15.4%:

27/11/2013: Irish Employment by Sectors: Q3 2013

In the previous post I looked at the data from QNHS on broader measures of unemployment in the economy (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/26112013-broader-unemployment.html). This time, let's take a look at employment numbers across various sectors. The data below is not seasonally adjusted, so these are actual counts.

Starting from the top:

• Overall employment levels at the end of Q3 2013 stood at 1,899,300 which represents a rise of 3.15% y/y. Over the last 12 months, employment averaged 1,865,930 which is 1.54% ahead of employment levels 12 months average through Q3 2012.
• Relative to pre-crisis levels (average of 2008), employment is still down 10.76%, but compared to the crisis period trough we are up 4.07%.
• Current levels of employment are the highest since Q2 2010.
• Agricultural employment changes are well highlighted by the CSO and as such I will not interpret these here.
• Non-agricultural private sector employment is at 1,308,200 in Q3 2013, up 2.98% y/y. 12 months average level through Q3 2013 is at 1,278,950 up 0.99% on 12 months average through Q3 2012. Not exactly spectacular change, but still a welcome positive reading. Relative to pre-crisis 2008 average, non-agricultural private sector employment was 14.96% lower in Q3 2013.
• Public sector and state-controlled sectors (health and education) employment fell 0.99% y/y to 480,500. 12mo average through Q3 2013 was at 486,930 which is 0.16% down on previous 12mo average through Q3 2012. Not exactly a massive drop-off. However, compared to 2008 average, employment in this category is 1.2% higher in Q3 2013 - a poor omen for the claims of significant reductions in public and state-controlled employment. 

Chart to illustrate:

Welcoming changes in the higher value-added sectors of the economy:

• ICT sector employment stood at 82,000 in Q3 2013, up 4.86% y/y. 12mo average through Q3 2013 is at 80,750 and this is up 2.34% on 12mo average through Q3 2012. Levels of employment in the sector in Q3 2013 were 14.77% ahead of 2008 average.
• Professional, scientific and technical activities employment rose to 113,300 in Q3 2013 up 10.86% y/y and the 12mo average through Q3 2013 stood at 106,350 which is 7.1% higher than in 12 months through Q3 2012. Nonetheless, the sector employment levels in Q3 2013 were 2.22% below the 2008 average.
• Administrative and support services employment stood at 64,700 in Q3 2013, down 2.85% y/y and 12mo average through Q3 2013 was at 61,350 which is 4.66% below the average through Q3 2012. The sector employment is still well below 2008 levels - down 15.73%.
• Financial, insurance and real estate services employment fell 0.78% y/y to 101,500 in Q3 2013 and 12mo average through Q3 2013 was at 100,730 down 0.93% on 12mo average through Q3 2012. Compared to pre-crisis levels (2008 average) employment in this sector is down 5.10% in Q3 2013.

Education, Health and Public Administration all showed continued weaknesses:

• Public administration and defence, compulsory social security sector employment declined 3.61% y/y to 96,100, and 12 mo average through Q3 2013 stood at 95,600 or 4.66% lower than over 12 months through Q3 2102.Relative to 2008 average, employment in the sector is now down 8.63%.
• Education sector employment rose 0.14% y/y to 140,800. Sector employment averaged 145,980 in 12 months through Q3 2013 which is 1.02% ahead of 12 months average through Q3 2012. However, compared to 2008 average, Q3 2013 level was 3.13% lower.
• Human Health and Social Work sector employment was down 0.57% y/y in Q3 2013. 12mo average through Q3 2013 stood at 245,350 which is 0.99% higher than 12mo average through Q3 2012. Compared to 2008 average, Q3 2013 reading was 8.62% higher.

Employment in Industry is quietly running slightly up despite overall decline in goods exports values:

• Industry ex-Construction sector employment rose 4.72% y/y in Q3 2013 to 242,000 and was up in 12mo average terms by 1.3%. However, compared to pre-crisis average for 2008, Q3 2013 reading was still 15.98% lower.
• Industry including construction sector employment rose 4.58% y/y to 347,300. In 12mo through Q3 2013, employment in the sector was up 0.59% compared to 12 months average through Q3 2012. Relative to pre-crisis average for 2008, employment in sector stood massive 34.15% lower in Q3 2013.
• Meanwhile, services employment rose 1.30% y/y in Q3 2013 to1,439,200. In 12mo through Q3 2013 employment averaged 1,423,050 which is 0.7% higher than for the same period in 2012. Compared to 2008 average levels, Q3 2013 employment in Services stood at -2.64%.

So on the net - some good aggregate numbers. Rates of increases, especially averaging-out over 12 months (4 quarters) period are still not exactly spectacular, but we do have overall growth in employment and this growth is also present in the higher value-added sectors. 

Here is the summary of changes for the period since the current Government took office: