2/7/2014: Live Register by Nationality: June 2014 and Q2 2014

In the previous two posts (linked here) I covered top level data on Live Register for June 2014, and the Government "Score Card' comparatives between Q2 2014 and Q1 2011 when the current Coalition came to power. This post covers some details relating to foreign nationals on Live Register.

As of June 2014, there were

• 398,813 people officially on the Live Register (in other words, excluding those who received Live Register supports but were enrolled into State Training Programmes). This marked a decline of 8.39% y/y
• Of the above, 331,463 were Irish Nationals, representing 83.1% of total Live Register counts. Year on year, June 2014 numbers of Irish Nationals on LR is down 8.12% which is less than overall decline in the LR. A year ago, Irish Nationals represented 82.9% of total LR counts. So proportionally, Irish Nationals are now slightly more prevalent on LR than a year ago.
• In June 2014, there were 67,350 non-Irish Nationals on the LR, representing 16.9% of the total LR counts. This represents a decline of 9.73% y/y. A year ago in June 2013, non-Irish Nationals represented 17.1% of the LR.
• 15,034 UK nationals were on LR in Ireland in June 2014, representing a y/y decline of 10.0%, the second sharpest drop of all nationalities groups.
• There were 3,751 EU15 (ex-Ireland & UK) nationals on the LR in June 2014, virtually unchanged (up on 3,750) on June 2013.
• There were 36,772 Accession States (EU-12) nationals on the LR in June, representing a decline of 9.5% y/y. In June 2014, nationals of the Accession States accounted for 9.2% of the total LR counts, down from 9.3% in June 2013. In other words, proportionally, the numbers of Accession States nationals on LR have dropped more significantly than the decline in LR itself. This category posted the third steepest decline in LR numbers.
• Non-EU nationals listed on LR amounted to 11,793 as of June 2014, a decline of 12.8% on June 2013. Proportionally, they accounted for just under 3% of the LR total counts in June 2014, down slightly on just over 3.1% in June 2013. This category posted the overall steepest rate of decline in LR numbers y/y.

Charts to illustrate:

A table below summarises changes in quarterly averages terms for Q2 2014:

This largely confirms the same observations made about June 2014 figures.

5/9/2013: OECD Migration report 2013: Ireland's blues

Last week, OECD published its International Migration Outlook 2013. I wrote about this in the box-out section of my Sunday Times column which is available here in an unedited version: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/09/592013-sunday-times-september-1.html

Couple of charts to illustrate the actual findings from the OECD:

These show pretty severe adverse impact of immigration on Irish exchequer finances, driven primarily by (in descending order of importance):

1. The extent of the current crisis
2. The impact of immigration flows composition on transmitting the shocks of unemployment to exchequer balance sheet (exceptionally rapid replacement of previously jobs-linked immigration inflows prior to 2004 with post-2004 opportunistic immigration from the EU Accession states, primarily going to short-term jobs in construction and domestic services sectors)
3. The impact of the Government policies since 2000-2001 that raised significantly spending on social welfare

The problem, of course, is that the latest Government policies, acting to limit access to Irish labour market for non-EU nationals continues to reinforce the second point above. We are increasingly trading on the assumption that Accession states' nationals regardless of their skills can act as a substitute for highly skilled and perfectly selected into jobs candidates from the rest of the world. Not exactly a smart policy, folks…

In 2006 I wrote about this effect on selection bias in Irish immigration policies post-2004 for the Romanian Journal of European Studies: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1100952 Seems like my warnings came to the front in the OECD data.