20/2/19: Broader Measures of Irish Unemployment 4Q 2018

The latest Labour Force Survey for 4Q 2018 for Ireland, published by CSO, shows some decent employment increases over 2018, and a welcomed, but shallow, rise in the labour force participation rates. Alongside with a decrease (over FY 2018) in the headline unemployment rate, these are welcome changes, consistent with overall economic growth picture for the state.

One, much less-reported in the media, set of metrics for labour markets performance is the set of broader unemployment measures provided by the CSO. These are known as Potential Labour Supply stats (PLS1-PLS4). The measures also show improvements over 2018, just in line with overall employment growth. However, these measures clearly indicate that after 11 years running, the 2008-2014 crises remain still evident in the labour force statistics for Ireland.

Here is a chart of all four PLS measures, compared to their pre-2008 averages:

Note: Increase in PLS2-PLS4 series at 3Q 2017 is down to change in assessment methodology under the LFS replacing QNHS, with data pre-3Q 2017 adjusted to reflect that change by the CSO.

As a reminder, the above data series are defined as:

• PLS1 adds discouraged workers. These are individuals who are out of work but who have become disillusioned with job search. 
• PLS2 includes all individuals in Potential Additional Labour Force (PALF). The PALF is made up of two groups: persons seeking work but not immediately available and persons available to work but not seeking, of which discouraged workers make up the largest number. 
• PLS3 includes all those in the previous two categories (PLS1 and PLS2) along with persons outside the labour force but not in education or training. 
• PLS4 is the broadest measure of unemployment or potential labour supply and is calculated by adding part-time underemployed workers to PLS3. Part-time underemployed workers are individuals currently working part time who are willing and available to work additional hours. The broadest measure of unemployment (PLS4) stood at 13.7 per cent in 4Q 2016. At 4Q 2017 it was 18.7 per cent and by 4Q 2018 it was down to 17.5 per cent.

27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: State Training & Supports vs Jobs Creation

Key summary of the previous posts covering QNHS for Q3 2014 is provided at the bottoms of the post (they are now getting longer than the posts, so I should probably end this analysis).

For the last bit, lets take a look at the unemployed numbers inclusive of the State Training Schemes (JobBridge et al) and State-Supported Employment (Live Register payments).

Official unemployment figures stood at 294,800 in Q3 2014, down 9.76% y/y (a reduction of 31,900). Official unemployment was down 22.91% on crisis peak levels (-87,600) and it was down 19.39% (-70,900) on Q1 2011 levels.

Factoring in State Training and Supports Schemes Participants, number of unemployed and those reliant on state supports for their employment stood at 381,700 in Q3 2014, down 7.74% y/y (-32,040). Compared to peak levels, this measure was down 18.08% or 84,230 and compared to Q1 2011 it was down 14.67% or 65,640.

Interestingly, there have also been significant changes in terms of self-employed.

Numbers of self-employed with paid employees rose 4.72% y/y in Q3 2014 (+4,000), while their counts were down 3.59% (-3,300) compared to Q1 2011. Numbers of self-employed with no paid employees rose 1.64% y/y (+3,700) and was up 13.15% (+26,600) compared to Q1 2011.

Now, as to the Government's claims of massive jobs creation during the Government tenure, total unemployment (ex state training schemes and programmes) fell 65,640 in Q3 2014 since Q1 2011, but 23,300 of this fall was accounted for by higher numbers in self-employment absent employees. Over 3.5 years, Government stewardship of the economy was, therefore, associated with employment-linked unemployment reduction of roughly 12,100 per annum.

(Do note, that any claim that the Government 'creates' jobs is a bit dodgy, and even more dodgy would be a claim that Government 'creates' self-employment, as the current Government has clearly shown by the record of its own policies, e.g. massive tax hikes and failure to equivalise access to supports, that it has zero interest in supporting self-employed in their business endeavours).



Summary of previous posts:
1) Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older)
2) Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average.
3) Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013.
4) Total population over 15 years of age increased by 0.08% y/y and population at work was up 1.7% y/y (+31,000), marking a slowdown in the rate of growth from 2.17% y/y in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Since Q1 2011 some 58,500 more people are at work, although this reflects seasonal variations. Numbers of those retired from employment rose to 416,700 - up 2.76% (+11,200) y/y and up 68,400 or +19.64% since Q1 2011. Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons and remains higher than historical average.
5) Both full-time employment and total employment accelerated in Q3 2014 compared to Q4 2013-Q1 2014 dynamics, with most of the new jobs creation taking place in the category of full-time employment. This is good news. Numbers of underemployed individuals fell. Which is another good news. However, as the proportion of total employment, full-time employment remains at the low levels. 

2/7/2014: Live Register by Nationality: June 2014 and Q2 2014

In the previous two posts (linked here) I covered top level data on Live Register for June 2014, and the Government "Score Card' comparatives between Q2 2014 and Q1 2011 when the current Coalition came to power. This post covers some details relating to foreign nationals on Live Register.

As of June 2014, there were

• 398,813 people officially on the Live Register (in other words, excluding those who received Live Register supports but were enrolled into State Training Programmes). This marked a decline of 8.39% y/y
• Of the above, 331,463 were Irish Nationals, representing 83.1% of total Live Register counts. Year on year, June 2014 numbers of Irish Nationals on LR is down 8.12% which is less than overall decline in the LR. A year ago, Irish Nationals represented 82.9% of total LR counts. So proportionally, Irish Nationals are now slightly more prevalent on LR than a year ago.
• In June 2014, there were 67,350 non-Irish Nationals on the LR, representing 16.9% of the total LR counts. This represents a decline of 9.73% y/y. A year ago in June 2013, non-Irish Nationals represented 17.1% of the LR.
• 15,034 UK nationals were on LR in Ireland in June 2014, representing a y/y decline of 10.0%, the second sharpest drop of all nationalities groups.
• There were 3,751 EU15 (ex-Ireland & UK) nationals on the LR in June 2014, virtually unchanged (up on 3,750) on June 2013.
• There were 36,772 Accession States (EU-12) nationals on the LR in June, representing a decline of 9.5% y/y. In June 2014, nationals of the Accession States accounted for 9.2% of the total LR counts, down from 9.3% in June 2013. In other words, proportionally, the numbers of Accession States nationals on LR have dropped more significantly than the decline in LR itself. This category posted the third steepest decline in LR numbers.
• Non-EU nationals listed on LR amounted to 11,793 as of June 2014, a decline of 12.8% on June 2013. Proportionally, they accounted for just under 3% of the LR total counts in June 2014, down slightly on just over 3.1% in June 2013. This category posted the overall steepest rate of decline in LR numbers y/y.

Charts to illustrate:

A table below summarises changes in quarterly averages terms for Q2 2014:

This largely confirms the same observations made about June 2014 figures.

2/7/2014: Live Register: Changes on Q1 2011 & Government 'Score Card'

In the previous post I covered Live Register (top numbers) for June. Here, as promised, a sort of 'Score Card' for the Government tenure period - looking at the LR performance over the period from Q1 2011 through Q2 2014. This is summarised in the table below:

Note one simple exercise, taking the rate of improvement in figures over either 3 years and a quarter (entire tenure of the Government) or over the last 12 months (quarterly averages basis), we can look at the number of years we are still away from getting the LR and its underlying components to some sort of a 'norm' (selected as the average of 2007-2008 period). Two things are evident from this exercise:

1. The task ahead is still awfully large and in no case are we out of the storm until around 2019-2020; and
2. The task is being made easier in recent months as things have been improving more rapidly

This confirms my earlier analysis that the current crisis does not appear to be as easily solvable as the one of the 1980s (you can see some of this here).

It would not be fair to criticise this Government for the problem of unemployment. And it would be wrong not to recognise the fact that the numbers are improving and the rate of improvement has accelerated in the last 18 months. Still, noting the caveats to the improvements that I cited in the earlier post on this subject, and considering the effect of State Training Programmes on LR (the cornerstone of Government labour market policies endorsed fully by the Troika) there is more of this road yet to travel than what has been marked over the last 3 years.

2/7/2014: Live Register: June 2014

Live Register figures for June 2014 are out today, so here are some updates.

Seasonally un-adjusted LR stood at 398,813 in June 2014, which is down 8.39% y/y down 36,544. In May 2014 the LR was down 7.81% y/y so June marks an improvement in the rate of Live Register declines.

Factoring in participants in State Training Programmes, total number of individuals in receipt of Live Register supports in June 2014 was 473,700 which is 5.68% lower (28,521) than in June 2013. The rate of decline in total Live Register Recipients numbers moderated in June, since in May 2014 it fell 6.98% y/y.

Chart to illustrate:

June marked the slowest rate of LR declines (when factoring in State Training Programmes participants) since February 2014. However, since December 2013, the annual rates of decline in LR+STP numbers have run above 5%, every month, against average 2.57% declines in January-November 2013.

On the other hand, official LR declines hit record in June, dropping 8.39% y/y, the steepest rate of annual decline since the crisis began.

All of the above are positives, but subject to two caveats:

1. We do not know how much of the LR reduction is down to emigration
2. We do not know how much of it is down to exits from the labour force.

Data for labour force itself comes with a quarterly lag, so all we have to go by currently is Q1 2014 figure, when the labour force rose to 2,146,300 compared to 2,137,500 in Q1 2013 - an increase y/y of 8,800. Rising net labour force could have come from younger workers coming into the LF for the first time (some of them are not finding jobs, some are) and it can mean that older workers who exited the LF are coming back. We do not know net drivers for the 8,800 increase, so we cannot speculate as to what effect on LR this has had.

What we do, however, know (with 1 quarter lag, again) is that LR recipients as share of labour force is still trending above 2008-present average and although it is coming down, the proportion remains stuck above 20%. 

2008-present average for LR+STP as % of labour force is 21.1%, current June 2014 reading is at 22.1% (assuming labour force for Q1 2014), and March 2014 reading was 22.0% - very close to June (March figure is based on Q1 2014 data, so it is more likely to be correct). In June 2013 this proportion was 23.1% and in March 2013 it was 23.9%, which means we have some improvement. However, we are still far from 1998-2007 average of 9.5%.

So the good news is: LR is down. Better news is: much of the decrease is not due to State Training Programmes. Bad news: there is still a lot of road left to travel before we get anywhere near normal levels of LR and the progress is not rapid.

Government 2011-present scorecard on LR - in the next post.

9/1/2014: Live Register: December 2013

Live Register for December was published earlier this week. Let's take a look at the recent changes and trends.

Using seasonally-adjusted data:

• December 2013 LR stood at 402,800, lowest reading since May 2009 and down 6.7% y/y. October 2013 reading was down 6.2% on October 2012, so strong downward trend is clearly present.
• Good news is that in 2013 the LR declines came alongside increases in labour force participation. In Q3 2013, LR averaged 416,100, down 19,633 y/y, while labour force participation increased 16,300. We don't have data for labour force participation for Q4 2013 year, so that comparative will have to wait.
• Over Q4 2013, average Live Register numbers fell 2.39% on Q3 2013 average and was down 6.15% year on year. The latter marks acceleration in LR declines : in Q3 2013 LR average was down 4.51% y/y.
• Overall seasonally-adjusted LR declined 28,800 y/y in December and was down 3,300 m/m.

Under-25 years of age: 

• Number of LR recipients under 25 years of age stood at 62,400 in December 2013, down 11.6% y/y (-8,200) and down 900 on October 2013.
• Stripping out some volatility, Q4 2013 average was down 3.46% q/q and 11.1% y/y for those under 25 years of age.

Casual and Part-time Workers: 

• 81,382 casual and part-time workers were on the Live Register in December 2013, down 7.6% y/y
• On a quarterly averages basis, Q4 2013 figure was 4.2% lower than Q3 and 6.5% lower than Q4 2013.

Coupled with lower jobs creation for the younger workers and slower growth in part-time employment reported in Q3 2013 QNHS data, the above facts suggests that significant share of overall improvement in the Live Register can be down to exits from the LR that are neither registering as unemployed nor employed. This, of course, would mean they are either dropping off unemployment schemes due to expiration of benefits and/or emigrating. Alas, we have no real data on what happens to those who exit the LR schemes.

However, we do have data on State Training Programmes (STPs) participation - counting individuals who do receive LR financial supports, yet are not counted as being on LR. Do note, we also have a lag in reporting of these numbers with the latest data currently available for November 2013.

• In November 2013, 85,738 individuals were in STPs - up 2% (+1,677). M/m STPs participants rose 1,100, accounting for almost 1/3 of the 3,500 decline in overall live register in October-November 2013.
• Combining STP participants and official LR counts, total number of those on unemployment supports in December 2013 stood at 488,538 (using November LR figure) against November count of 491,838.

On average, in Q4 2013, 23% of Irish workforce was in receipt of unemployment assistance, up on 22.2% in Q3 2013 and down on 23.1% in Q2 2013. In Q4 2012 the same proportion was 24.1%.

The good news is that even accounting for those on STPs, Live Register total has fallen back in 2013. In Q4 2013 average total LR+STPs numbers were down ca 4.7% y/y (assuming there is no dramatic change in STPs numbers when these are reported for December).

Some trends next.

First overall LR and LR with training programmes included:

Both are off-peaks (good thing, assuming it is happening not by throwing people into poverty), but while Official Live Register is trending strongly down, once training programmes are included, the downward trend is shallower.

Live Register for under-25 year olds:

Again, good trend - downward and strong - stronger rate of recovery than in the early 1990s. Of course we also have more outflows due to emigration today than in the 1990s.

Overall, 25 year-olds as proportion of total Live Register today are at their historical low of 15.4%:

26/11/2013: Broader Unemployment & Underemployment in Ireland: Q3 2013

This is the first post on the QNHS results for Q3 2013, covering broader metrics of unemployment as reported by the CSO, plus the State Training Programmes (STP) participation.

Terminology first:

Per CSO data:

• PLS1 (unemployed persons plus discouraged workers) unemployment rate stood at 13.8% down from 14.8% in Q2 2013 and 16% in Q3 2012. Compared to peak, PLS1 is now 2.4 percentage points lower. Q3 2013 rate stands at the lowest since Q4 2009.
• PLS2 (PLS1 + Potential Additional Labour Force) rate declined from 16.2% in Q2 2013 to 15.2% in Q3 2013. The rate was 17.1 in Q3 2012. Current rate is the lowest since Q1 2010 and is down 2.1 percentage points on the peak.
• PLS3 (PLS2 + others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in E/T) rate fell to 17.5% in Q3 2013 from 18.2% in Q2 2013 and is now down 1.5 percentage points on Q3 2012. PLS3 is down 1.7 percentage points on peak and is the lowest reading since Q1 2010.
• PLS4 (PLS3 + underemployed) was at 23.5% in Q3 2013, down on 24.7% in Q2 2013 and on 25.5% in Q3 2012. Relative to peak the rate is down 2.3 percentage points and this marks the lowest reading since Q4 2010.
• Adding State Training Programmes participation data from the CSO Live Register reports, PLS4+STP measure is now at 27.0% down on 27.8% in Q2 2013 and 28.9% in Q3 2012. Compared to peak the measure is down 1.91 percentage points and the measure is at its lowest level since Q1 2011.
• Finally, adding estimated emigration rate, PLS4+STP rate rises to close to 28.0% in Q3 2013, down on 28.7% in Q2 2013. This is an estimate, so should be treated with caution.

Charts to illustrate and summarise:

While the above data is positive, it should be treated with some caution, as the turnaround in employment driving the above statistics is reflective of significant increases in part-time and self-employment figures. In addition, with just 4 quarters of downtrend in the series so far, the dynamics, while encouraging, are yet to be fully established.

Additional good news was provided by the Labour Force numbers:

• Labour Force numbers rose to 2,182,100 in Q3 2013 from 2,165,800 in Q3 2012, gaining 16,300 year on year.
• Labour force numbers were up 44,600 on crisis period trough in Q3 2013.
• Crisis trough to pre-crisis annual average stands at 136,400. Last 12 months average relative to pre-crisis average stands at -115,450, which means we are around 2.5-3 years out from closing the gap.

Stay tuned for more analysis tomorrow.

1/11/2013: Decent News on Live Register Front: October 2013

Live Register numbers for October released yesterday are pretty good, for a change. 

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall official Live Register counts declined to 409,900 from 413,600 in September. Seasonally-adjusted LR is now down 5.60% y/y - an improvement on decline of 4.9% recorded back in September.

3mo MA also is down 5.03% year on year, and 2.2% lower on 3mo through July 2013. 

So decent headline readings, consistent with continued trends working through LR overall:

1) Outflows due to new jobs creation

2) Outflows due to emigration and benefits expirations

Level changes: m/m down 3,700 and y/y down 24,300. 

Compared with Q1 2011 average - the last period prior to the current Government coming into office, Live Register is down 3.8% in the last 3 months through October 2013.

Two charts above also show Live Register with State Training Programmes participation added to it (LR+STPP). This broader measure of LR currently stands at 485,850 in October (I use September figure for STPPs as this is reported with one month lag). Assuming this holds, LR+STPP numbers are now 5.8% below where they were in October 2012 (note, September STPP figure more likely underestimates the October numbers, as there is very strong volatility and seasonal increases in September-November). 

This contrast with 3.7% decrease in LR+STPP recorded in September. Now, again - keep in mind that September numbers are the true comparative, as they are reflective of the recorded levels of STPPs. 

Back to october figures. The trend for LR+STPP is now to the downside when we strip out some of the monthly volatility. 3mo MA for LR+STPP currently runs at 1.35% lower than 3mo MA through July 2013 and is down 4.2% y/y. This confirms the decline of 2.4% recorded in LR+STPP y/y basis for the 3 months through July 2013.

Current 3mo MA is 4.7% below Q1 2011 reading for LR+STPP.

Broadly-speaking, the numbers are encouraging.

Another interesting trend in the LR participation by the under-25 years of age: this is down massive 10.4% y/y in October and was down 10.3% in September. On 3mo MA basis, the figures are down 10.4% y/y and are down 3.4% on previous 3mo MA through July 2013. I wonder how much of these declines is due to cuts to benefits and expirations of benefits and younger people removing themselves out of the labour force.

Finally, Casual and Part-time Workers on LR have fallen 5.1% y/y in October and were down 3.3% in September. On 3mo MA basis, the figures are down 5.7% on previous 3mo period through July, and are down 3.6% y/y.

Summary: overall we have encouraging changes in the LR. More analysis is needed to decompose these into jobs creation numbers as opposed to benefits expirations and emigration. More current data is needed on State Training Programmes participation (this will be available for October when November LR is released). A summary of changes is shown in the chart below:

Updated: Revealing some of the mysteries of 'improving' Live Register, here's an article from The Examiner: http://www.irishexaminer.com/budget/news/reality-behind-live-register-stats-246183.html

29/8/2013: Broader Unemployment & Underemployment in Ireland: Q2 2013

On foot of the latest data from the QNHS (broad trends analysis here), let's take a look at the broader measures of unemployment, as reported by the CSO (with the last measure: PLS4+STP being compiled by myself based on CSO data from the Live Register and QNHS).

Here are the core definitions, used:

And the numbers are:

• PLS1 - unemployed persons plus discouraged workers - rose from 14.6% in Q1 2013 to 14.8% in Q2 2013, but declined 1.3 percentage points on Q2 2012. Relative to peak (16.2% in Q3 2011), the indicator is now down 1.4 percentage points, which is a pretty poor performance, when you think of it: 1.4 ppt down in 7 quarters).
• PLS2 is at 16.2% in Q2 2013, up on 16% in Q4 2012 and Q1 2012. Year on year, indicator is down 1.0 percentage points and it is down 1.1 percentage points on peak attained in Q3 2011. Again, poor performance relative to peak.
• PLS3 is at 18.2%, up on 18.0% in Q1 2013 and down 0.7 ppt on Q2 2012. Relative to peak the indicator is down 1.0 percentage points with the peak at Q3 2011.
• PLS4 is at 24.7%, which is down on 24.9% in Q1 2013 and is also down 1.1 ppt y/y. Q2 2012 was the peak reading for indicator, so PLS4 is down now 1.1 ppt on peak too - decline delivered over 4 quarters.
• Finally, adding State Training Programmes participants to PLS4, we have PLS4+STP indicator at 27.8%, down on 28.9% in Q1 2013 and down only 0.5 ppt on Q2 2012. Indicator peak was attained in Q3 2012, so the indicator is now down 1.1 ppt on peak.

Summary of y/y and relative to peak changes recorded in Q2 2013 is here:

Lastly, gains in the labour force illustrated:

The above marks a nice increase in the labour force participation out to 2,170,700 in Q2 2013 from 2,137,500 in Q1 2013 and 2,159,100 in Q2 2012. The increase, however, comes off the low base to begin with and basically returns labour force numbers to the levels where they were back around Q3 2011.

Summary: Broader unemployment and underemployment metrics are improving y/y but not q/q. The broadest measure PLS4+STP down very marginally y/y by just 0.5 percentage points. This is hardly encouraging. On a positive side, all metrics are showing signs of stabilisation, albeit at very high levels of unemployment and underemployment. In most basic terms, with 27.8% of our broader potential workforce either unemployed, underemployed or in state training programmes, we have a real problem on our hands, still, and it is not getting better at any appreciable rate of improvement.

29/8/2013: Some positives v negatives from QNHS data: Q2 2013

Latest QNHS figures from Ireland are encouraging. Actually, given much of the tough news on the front of employment and jobs creation prior, these are heart warming. Here are the headlines:

Employment:

• "There was an annual increase in employment of 1.8% or 33,800 in the year to the second quarter of 2013, bringing total employment to 1,869,900. This compares with an annual increase in employment of 1.1% in the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.3% in the year to Q2 2012." This is good. Employment is up against adverse demographic effects, which is good, but it is also up due to superficial effects of reclassifications of some categories (see warning below).
• Even better news: "Full-time employment increased by 21,600 or 1.5% in the year to Q2 2013 while part-time employment increased by 12,100 or 2.8% over the year." So levels of increase in full-time employment are outstripping increases in part-time employment, implying that average jobs pool quality is not declining anymore.
• This marks third consecutive quarter of q/q increases in employment: "On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 9,600 (+0.5%) in the quarter." There was a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 9,000 (+0.5%) in Q1 2013 and 12,100 (+0.7%) in Q4 2012.
• Employment increases and decreases composition are not sending a good signal, with higher value-added sub-categories of employment up: "Employment fell in five of the fourteen economic sectors over the year... The greatest rates of decline were recorded in the Administration and support service activities(-7.9% or -5,000), Transportation and storage (-5.4% or -4,900) and Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (-4.5% or -4,500) sectors. The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+18.7% or 16,300) and the Accommodation and food service activities(+8.0% or 9,600) sectors. 
• Here is a warning shot on the above figures: "In the case of the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector it can be noted that estimates of employment in this sector have shown to be sensitive to sample changes over time." So, wait... +16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture etc are really old jobs reclassified... or at least a large share of these are... Oops.. Note that this exactly matches decrease in the 'Not in the labour force' category (-16,300 y/y) and this knocks out quite a bit of wind out of the 'jobs creation' figures sails...

Unemployment:

• "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 13.8% to 13.7% over the quarter while the number of persons unemployed fell marginally by 500 persons, again on a seasonally adjusted basis." This is news in so far it is 'official' QNHS reading, but we knew 13.7% figure back in May when we had the standardised rate of unemployment estimate from Live Register.
• "Unemployment decreased by 22,200 (-6.9%) in the year to Q2 2013 bringing the total number of persons unemployed to 300,700. This is the fourth quarter in succession where unemployment has declined on an annual basis." Which is good news, indeed, except, wait... what about the 16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing flagged above? Marginal decline of just 500 in terms of q/q seasonally-adjusted unemployment is a poor reading, to be honest. Better than an increase, but still, very weak. This weakness suggests that the bulk of 22,200 declines in unemployment rosters is due to exits and reclassifications of workers, not due to jobs creation.
• "The long-term unemployment rate decreased from 9.2% to 8.1% over the year to Q2 2013. Long-term unemployment accounted for 58.2% of total unemployment in Q2 2013 compared with 61.8% a year earlier and 56.1% in the second quarter of 2011." What we do not know here is whether this decrease was due to exits from benefits or entries into jobs or move to state-run training programmes. I will do analysis on these later, so stay tuned.

Labour force participation:

• Good news: "The total number of persons in the labour force in the second quarter of 2013 was 2,170,700, representing an increase of 11,500 (+0.5%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force decrease of 19,600 (-0.9%) in Q2 2012." 
• The above is a good bit of news and it is made even better when we consider that increases in labour force were driven by increased participation rather than by demographic effects. In Q2 2013 there was a negative demographic effect cutting -16,300 from the overall labour force. This was more than offset by "a positive participation effect of 27,800 on the size of the labour force over the year.
• There was "an increase in the overall participation rate from 60.1% to 60.5% over the year to Q2 2013." Which is excellent news.
• "The number of persons not in the labour force in Q2 2013 was 1,415,600, a decrease of 16,300 (-1.1%) over the year." This seems to be related to reclassifications into Agriculture, etc. sector.

To summarise:

We have some positive news above, but overall, numbers remain obscured by reclassifications, changes in composition and lack of clarity on flows in- and out- of unemployment. 

Analysis of broader measures of unemployment, more indicative of underlying quality and nature of changes in the aggregate figures, is to follow, so stay tuned.

7/6/2013: Government 'scorecard' on unemployment: May 2013

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/762013-live-register-may-2013-headline.html) I looked at the very broad trends in the Live Register data for May 2013. This time, let's do something slightly cheeky. Recall that the Government is keen on referencing jobs creation and unemployment reduction numbers as the sign of the success of the state policies. Recall also, that I have previously showed, repeatedly, that at the very least when it comes to broader unemployment data, these claims might be a serious over-stretching of reality (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3052013-official-broader-unemployment.html and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3152013-part-time-v-full-time.html ).

Before we proceed, let us recognise the following facts and plausible conjectures:

1. Irish Government has inherited a massive task when it comes to dealing with unemployment and jobs creation on foot of the mistakes made by the previous Government and, more importantly, on foot of an unprecedented economic crisis we face;
2. Irish Government has very limited resources it can deploy to deal with unemployment crisis;
3. Irish Government has been making, in my opinion, honest efforts to attempt dealing with the crisis.

With the above points recognised, let's build a table measuring the current Government progress on jobs creation based on Live Register stats. With a dose of over-exaggeration (please, do not take this as a direct indictment of the Government efforts etc, just as a response to Government-own propensity to push out unemployment numbers as evidence of own success), here is 

Irish Government Performance Score Card

As marked by blue color, Official Live Register tends to confirm Government's claims: since taking the office, this coalition saw, to-date, a 3.8% reduction in the Official Live Register. However, the same period saw an increAse of 4.3% in casual and part-time workers who require some unemployment supports to sustain themselves and their families, as well as a massive 32% increase in state training programme participants. The latter is good, in so far as people are getting at least some training and apprenticeships access, but it is also bad news for the Government, as it means that in reality, actual numbers of those receiving Live Register unemployment assistance and supports rose 0.8% on Q1 2011, not fallen. Meanwhile, as we know, over Q1 2011-Q1 2013, official labour force numbers fell 0.55%.

7/6/2013: Live Register May 2013: Headline Trends

Live Register numbers for May 2013 were out yesterday and I am only now getting to them (busy few days speaking and dealing with students etc), so here is the first of two posts on the subject. As usual, first up: headline numbers.

-- Total number of persons on Live Register in May stood at 426,100, which is 700 down on April 2013. Y/y LR is down 2.52% and this is an improvement on 2.29% decline recorded in April 2013. To-date Q2 2013 figures are down 0.53% on Q1 2013 and down 2.58% on Q2 2012. Again, as with monthly readings, this y/y decline in Q2 2013 to-date is deeper than the decline in Q1 2013 which posted -2.29%.
-- Total number of Live Register supports recipients to-date (official number, as distinct of the actual one - see data on state training participants below) is 266,607 ahead of pre-crisis 2000-2007 average.

In the charts above, I am referencing Live Register inclusive of the State Training Programmes participants. The reason for this separate data reporting is that while they continue to receive unemployment (Live Register) benefits, they are not included in the official Live Register counts. Please note: state training programmes participation is reported with 1 month lag compared to Live Register, so the latest number we have is for April 2013, which means that combined metric for May simply incorporates May 2013 data for Live Register, plus April 2013 data for State Training Programmes participation.

• In April 2013, there were 86,042 Live Register supports recipients who were officially engaged in State-run Training Programmes (STP). This was up 4.72% on April 2012.
• In April 2013, m/m change in Live Register was -200, while m/m change in STP was +673. In other words, in April, entire m/m 'decrease' in the official Live Register was 3 times smaller than an increase in STP.
• In April 2013, y/y change in official Live Register was -10,000, with 3,881 of these accounted for by increases in STP. 
• Put differently, in April 2013, m/m there was no decrease in unemployment benefits recipients' numbers at all, and in fact there was a m.m increase in these of some 473. Also in April 2013, y/y officially-reported massive decrease of 10,000 in official Live Register was really a smaller scale (albeit still welcome) decrease of 6,119.
• In May 2013, estimated Live Register + STP measure of unemployment benefits claimants stood at 512,142, which represents 23.96% of the labour force. Put differently, almost 1/4 of Ireland's labour force is currently in receipt of some form of unemployment assistance, which is well ahead of the official Live Register-implied estimated unemployment rate of 13.7% which would correspond to roughly 292,838 individuals.

• The numbers of those on the Live Register under the age of 25 was stuck in May at the same level of 68,900 as in March and April 2013. This represents a decline on 69,700 recorded in February and roughly corresponds to the levels last seen in December 2008-February 2009. However, it is most likely that these numbers are superficially depressed by the STP participation. Sadly, we do not have data on STPs reported regularly by the CSO to determine the exact extent of unemployment supports in the younger population.
• In May 2013, 16.17% of all Live Register supports recipients were under 25.
• Y/y, number of younger LR recipients was down 7.27% and so far in Q2 2013 the number is down on average 7.48% on Q2 2012.

Per CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in May 2013 was 191,997." Overall, the number of long term claimants increased by 3,268 (+1.7%) y/y, while the proportion of the short-term claimants dropped to 54.5% (229,740) from 56.4% (244,178). This suggests that, as would be normally expected, short-term unemployed are finding it easier to find jobs than their longer term counterparts, and that, potentially, this effect is being reinforced by accelerating exits of the long-term unemployed due to benefits expiration.

30/5/2013: Official Broader Unemployment in Ireland stands at 25%

The latest data for Q1 2013 from QNHS is out today with worrying sub-trends indicating that the labour markets are not showing any significant improvements in broader metrics of unemployment.

CSO defines 4 measures of broader unemployment:
PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.
PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force
PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
PLS4 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.

Since all exclude training, we can add those on State programmes into PLS4 to arrive at PLS4+STP - the broadest measure of unemployment.

Here is a chart:

Year on year through Q1 2013:

• Standard unemployment (PLS1) declined 1.4% from 16.0% in Q1 2012 to 14.6% in Q1 2013. This is good news, made even better by realising that Q1 2013 reading stood at the lowest level since Q1 2010 when it was 14.2%.
• Adding potential additional labour force to the PLS1 we have PLS2 measure, which in Q1 2013 was 16.0%, down 1% o n Q1 2012 and marking the lowest reading since Q1 2010 when it was registering 15.1%.
• PLS3 is the above unemployment plus others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training. This measure stood at 18.0 in Q1 2013, down on 18.8% in Q1 2012 (-0.8% y/y) and bang-on identical to the levels in Q1 2011.
• Last official measure reported by CSO, PLS4 combines PLS3 and those who are underemployed (in part-time employment, but are seeking full-time employment). PLS4 in Q1 2013 was 25.0% - identical to Q1 2012 and up on Q1 2011 when it stood at 23.7%. Thus, once underemployed are added into the equation, Irish unemployment stood still over the last 12 months. This is not great by any means.
• Finally, I compute PLS4+ State Training Programmes participants by combining QNHS data with Live Register. In Q1 2013, PLS4+STP measure stood at 29.0%, up 0.7% on Q1 2012 and marking the highest historical point for any quarter on the record (previous record was recoded at 28.991% in Q3 2012, which compares against Q1 2013 level of 28.994%).

Chart 2 shows Q1 2013 measures relative to their historical peaks.

Overall labour force participation rate fell again, this time -0.44% y/y and labour force is now down 162,600 on peak.

Notice: the above numbers do not account for emigration and the above unemployment numbers do not account for those who are of labour force participation age, but are not seeking employment and are no longer registering as being a part of labour force. If gross emigration in 2008-2012 stood around 300,000, and assuming that all of it related to families, taking average participation rate at current 59.5% and applying average size of household to the above emigration numbers implies ca 90,000 emigration for those who otherwise could have been in the labour force. With this number factored in the above numbers change as follows:

• PLS1 standard unemployment would rise from 312,075 to 401,325 or in percentage terms, from 14.6% to 18.0%
• PLS2 standard unemployment, plus potential additional labour force numbers would rise from 342,000 to 431,250 or in percentage terms, from 16% to 19.4%
• PLS3 = PLS2, plus others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training would rise from 384,750 to 474,000 or in percentage terms, from 18% to 21.3%
• PLS4 combines PLS3 and those who are underemployed (in part-time employment, but are seeking full-time employment) would rise from 534,375 (or 25.0%) to 623,625 (or 18.0%)
• PLS4 + STP would rise from 619,744 (or 29.0%) to 708,994 (or 31.8%)

With some serious caution we can say that approximately over 700,000 people in this country are now either unemployed, underemployed, on State Training Programmes or have been forced to emigrate by the realities of this crisis. We can also say, with much more clarity, that - per official figures - broad unemployment and underemployment in this country is running at its highest level ever, or 29%. recorded.

10/4/2013: Broader measures of unemployment in Ireland: 2012

Ireland's broader unemployment rates per CSO and adding State Training Programmes participants are as follows:

• PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers as of Q4 2012: 14.9%
• PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force as of Q4 2012: 16.1%
• PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as of Q4 2012: 18.2%
• PLS4 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as of Q4 2012: 24.6%
• PLS$ indicator including those on State Training Programmes as of Q4 2012: 28.4%

And three charts with dynamics:

Now, y/y changes in percentage points change:

• PLS1: -0.7 ppt
• PLS2: -0.6 ppt
• PLS3: -0.2 ppt
• PLS4: -0.2 ppt
• PLS4 and State Training Programmes participants: +0.98 ppt

So one thing is pretty clear: the broader the measure of unemployment we take, the lower is the rate of decline y/y and the smaller is the rate of decline relative to peak. 

6/4/2013: Part-time & Casual Employment Supports in Ireland

Let's do some more numbers crunching on Irish Live Register for Q1 2013.

In Q1 2012 official Live Register declined 9,902 on Q1 2012 (-2.26%) and down 14,936 on Q1 2011 (-3.37%). Sounds like some achievement. 

Alas, of the above numbers:

• Of the 9,902 decline on Q1 2012, the decline was just 7,154 when we take into the account state training programmes (-1.38%) and there was a rise of 1,181 (+1.34%) in the numbers who claim Live Register supports while being in casual and part-time employment (more on this below). Thus, the numbers of those fully dependent on Live Register have fallen only 8,335 (-1.94%) on Q1 2012.
• Of 14,936 decline on Q1 2011 (-3.37%), there was actually an increase in those claiming supports of 3,217 (+0.63%) when we take into the account state training programmes, and there was a rise of 4,352 (+5.13%) in the numbers who claim Live Register supports while being in casual and part-time employment (more on this below). Thus, the numbers of those fully dependent on Live Register have fallen only 1,135 (-0.27%) on Q1 2012.

Now, some would remark that it is better when people are part-time or casually employed, then when they are fully dependent on Live Register supports. I shall, of course, agree with such a statement. However, let's look at what has been happening with casual and part-time employment numbers over time.

• In 2002-2007 monthly volatility(measured by standard deviation) in the numbers on Live Register who were in casual and part-time employment stood at 1,031. This has risen to 3,979 for the period of 2010-present. In other words, overall casual and part-time employment might have declined significantly in terms of stability of income it offers and, thus reliance on Live Register. This can be due to different quality of skills and occupations for people singing onto Live Register with casual and part-time employment, or it might be due to changes in Live Register supports' eligibility, or both.
• Of all categories of Live Register signees, volatility of numbers on Live Register has risen only  for part-time and casual workers over 2010-present compared to 2002-2007.2
• For the Live Register inclusive of the state training programmes participants, volatility has actually fallen over the above periods, driven by declines in volatility for the numbers of signees who are fully reliant on Live Register supports.

To see the deterioration in the quality of casual and part-time employment linked to Live Register participation, consider the chart below:

The chart clearly shows dramatic increase in seasonality of the numbers of those on Live Register in casual and part-time employment for the end of Q2-beginning of Q3 periods since January 2010 as compared to previous years (2002-2007). You can see that the same effect does not appear in the numbers of signees fully dependent on Live Register supports:

6/4/2013: 80 years to deflate unemployment crisis in Ireland?

Continuing with the Live Register data theme: in the first post I covered broader long-term trends in the LR, with the second post looking at some sub-trends relating to nationality of Live Register signees. Here: a quick note on the size of the problem overall.

Total number of persons (officially) on the Live Register declined 2.07% y/y in March, following a steeper decline of 2.40% in February. Compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.65%.

Thus, March 2013 reading was 165.8% ahead of the 2004-2007 average, 36.1% ahead of 2008-2009 average and is 3.38% below 2010-present average. Taking Q1 2013 average, the Live Register (again, this is official count, excluding those on State training programmes) was up 1.76% on Q4 2012, down 2.26% on Q1 2012 and down 3.37% on Q1 2011.

For the adjusted Live Register (accounting for state training programmes participation), Q1 2013 q/q rate of increase in the Live Register was 1.53% and y/y rate of decrease was -1.38%.

Let me remind you the size of the problem overall:

At the above annual rates of decline (based on Q1 2013 data), it will take 

• 12.5 years from now to reach 2008-2009 average Live Register levels (which would be consistent with unemployment supports at the levels well above those observed in the 1980s and 1990s) and 
• 40.5 years to reach 2004-2007 average or 37 years to reach 2000-2007 average.

If you want a really scary number, using y/y change in Q1 2013 in Adjusted Live Register numbers, it will take us 81 years from today to reduce Adjusted Live Register counts to 2000-2007 average level. As a robustness check, the number will be 79 years were we to use Q4 2012 annual rate of decline.

Clearly, the 'turnaround' being signaled by the Live Register is simply not enough to deal with the current problem of unemployment and equally clearly, at current rates of economic 'growth' we either need to raise the speed of economic activity expansion by a factor of 10 or carry out some drastic measures on reforming our unemployment supports in order to see significant reductions in Live Register any time soon.

6/4/2013: Irish Live Register by Nationality: Some Trends

Yesterday, I blogged about Live Register data on overall levels of unemployment supports in Ireland. Today - few charts summing up Live Register trends by nationality.

Total number of persons (officially) on the Live Register declined 2.07% y/y in March, following a steeper decline of 2.40% in February. Compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.65%.

Meanwhile, the number of Irish Nationals on Live Register fell 1.89% y/y in March, following a decline of 2.39% in February. Current reading stands 3.68% below March 2011 and is down 10.68% on the crisis-period peak. Q1 2013 posted an increase of 1.43% on Q4 2012 and is down 2.21% on Q1 2012 and down 3.45% on Q1 2011.

The number of Non-Irish Nationals on Live Register declined at stronger 2.86% y/y in March than for Irish Nationals. larger decline of 2.45% was recorded for Non-Nationals in February 2013 as well. However, compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.50% against the comparable period decline of 3.68% for the nationals. Q1 2013 reading for non-Nationals was 3.31% ahead of Q4 2012 - a sharper increase than for Nationals. Q1 2013 reading was down 2.50% for non-Nationals compared to Q1 2012, which represents a sharper decline than for Nationals. Compared to Q1 2011, however, Q1 2013 reading is down 3.03% for non-Nationals against 3.45% for Nationals.

In relative terms, Irish Nationals accounted for 82.16% of the Live Register in March 2013 against 82.01% in march 2012, while for non-Nationals the same ratios were 17.84% in Q1 2013 against 17.99% in Q1 2012. Chart below illustrates:

With small scale changes, there is no to-date reversal in the flat trend in relative shares of two groups in total Live Register numbers that was established around mid-2009 and that corresponds to higher share of Live Register captured by non-Nationals and lower share captured by Nationals. You can clearly see the overall flat trend.

In dynamic terms, chart below illustrates time trends in Live Register presence of three core groups: EU15 (ex-Ireland), EU12 (Accession States) and non-EU migrants.

Share of the EU15 (ex-Ireland) migrants of the total Live Register count fell to 4.8% in March 2013 from 4.87% in March 2012. Over the same time, share of EU12 (Accession States) migrants rose from 9.91% to 9.94%, while share of non-EU migrants declined from 3.21% to 3.10%.

Again, quite interesting dynamics in the above chart. For EU12 Accession States, strong seasonality (and these are already seasonally adjusted stats) shows rises and falls in temporary employment in agriculture and retail sectors, but overall trend since mid-2010 is flat. In contrast, EU15 ex-Ireland trend is that of a decline in Live Register presence. Live Register numbers for non-EU nationals is basically flat since late 2007 and shows no elevation due to crisis. In other words, EU12 nationals number on the Live Register were a strongest driver of Live Register participation increases amongst non-nationals during the crisis and now are changing roughly in line with Live Register changes overall. EU15 ex-Ireland numbers have declined relative to overall Live Register, and non-EU nationals numbers have fallen over the period 2006-2008 and then remained steady in line with overall Live Register trend.

5/4/2013: Live Register March 2013

In light of the recent statement by the IMF about Ireland's broader measure of unemployment, let's ask two other simple questions:

1. How many people in Ireland receive unemployment supports? 
2. What percentage of the workforce in Ireland receives unemployment supports?

Answer in two charts based on latest CSO data:

Q1:

A1: In March 2013, there were 425,088 individuals on Live Register and in February 2013 (the latest for which this data is available) 83,421 individuals engaged in state-sponsored training programmes that receive Live Register supports, but are not counted officially as being on Live Register. Thus total number of those in receipt of unemployment supports in Ireland is 508,509 individuals.

This means that while Live Register official numbers have declined 2.065% y/y in March, total number of Live Register supports recipients has declined only 1.355% on March 2012.

To be exactly precise on this, take February 2013 figures alone: in February 2013, total number of those in receipt of Live Register supports was 512,297 which was a decrease in y/y terms of 1.45%, against the official Live Register decrease reported of 2.40%.


Q2:

A2: Using Q4 2012 data for labour force participation (reported via QNHS with a lag compared to Live Register), 27.29% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance in March 2013. 

Again, the data is reported with different lags, so for exact comparative we have to go to December 2012 when 24.23% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance.

Oh, as a bonus, here's a historical chart showing Live Register supports numbers for Ireland since 1967: