2/3/15: Religious Restrictions and Hostilities: Russia 2008-2013

A very interesting data set from the PewResearch mapping "Restrictions and Hostilities in the Most Populous Countries" by year: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/02/26/restrictions-and-hostilities-in-the-most-populous-countries-2013/ based on the report on Religious Restrictions and Hostilities, published last month: http://www.pewforum.org/2015/02/26/religious-hostilities/

Two charts showing relative evolution of restrictions and hostilities in Russia between 2008 and 2013:

11/7/2013: Assessing 2 years of Irish economic performance since Q1 2011

Currently, the Dail is debating around the clock one of the most important pieces of legislation: The Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill 2013 (see my post on the core ethical issue involved in the actual vote here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/07/972013-voting-on-conscience-vs-voting.html). The Government is unhappy with the possibility that it might lose several very high profile TDs on the issue.

In the background, Irish economy is appearing to gather more and more supporters of the thesis that things are getting better under the stewardship of the Government. Are they? Let's take a look at the Q1 2013 data from the Quarterly National Accounts.

Quick guide: I take four metrics of economic health: GDP, GNP (which is GDP less net transfers of profits and earnings abroad), Final Demand (private and public investment and spending on goods and services) and Total Demand (Final Demand less changes in stocks of inventories). To be more precise: Final Demand = Personal Consumption of Goods and Services + Net Expenditure by Central & Local Government on Current Goods & Services + Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation).

Also, consider the above variables in terms of current prices (including inflation effects) and in constant prices (controlling for inflation), as well as seasonally-adjusted and not seasonally-adjusted.

Here are three summary tables. Red marks cases of decline (in percentage terms) in excess of 1%, Green marks cases of increase in excess of 1%.

Remember - these are 2 years cumulated changes.

First GDP and GNP not seasonally-adjusted:

Second GDP and GNP seasonally-adjusted:

 Last, Final and Total Demand:

In the first two tables, I also showed the changes in GNP that accrue to changes in MNCs decisions to either retain earnings or expatriate them (Factor Payments). Whenever GDP is down and GNP is up, this effect is solely due to decline in transfers by MNCs of profits abroad or higher returns from Irish investments abroad repatriated into Ireland or both.

Another quick explanation: I reference both Q1 2011 to Q1 2013 change, as the Government officially took over the economy at the end of Q1 2011. But since economic activity is 'sticky' (and does not immediately respond to changes in Government policies) and since any Government requires some transition to power, we can treat both Q1 and Q2 2011 as basically being determined by the previous Government. Hence I am also showing comparatives for Q1 2013 relative to Q1-Q2 2011 average.

Draw your own conclusions.

7/6/2013: Government 'scorecard' on unemployment: May 2013

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/06/762013-live-register-may-2013-headline.html) I looked at the very broad trends in the Live Register data for May 2013. This time, let's do something slightly cheeky. Recall that the Government is keen on referencing jobs creation and unemployment reduction numbers as the sign of the success of the state policies. Recall also, that I have previously showed, repeatedly, that at the very least when it comes to broader unemployment data, these claims might be a serious over-stretching of reality (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3052013-official-broader-unemployment.html and http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/05/3152013-part-time-v-full-time.html ).

Before we proceed, let us recognise the following facts and plausible conjectures:

1. Irish Government has inherited a massive task when it comes to dealing with unemployment and jobs creation on foot of the mistakes made by the previous Government and, more importantly, on foot of an unprecedented economic crisis we face;
2. Irish Government has very limited resources it can deploy to deal with unemployment crisis;
3. Irish Government has been making, in my opinion, honest efforts to attempt dealing with the crisis.

With the above points recognised, let's build a table measuring the current Government progress on jobs creation based on Live Register stats. With a dose of over-exaggeration (please, do not take this as a direct indictment of the Government efforts etc, just as a response to Government-own propensity to push out unemployment numbers as evidence of own success), here is 

Irish Government Performance Score Card

As marked by blue color, Official Live Register tends to confirm Government's claims: since taking the office, this coalition saw, to-date, a 3.8% reduction in the Official Live Register. However, the same period saw an increAse of 4.3% in casual and part-time workers who require some unemployment supports to sustain themselves and their families, as well as a massive 32% increase in state training programme participants. The latter is good, in so far as people are getting at least some training and apprenticeships access, but it is also bad news for the Government, as it means that in reality, actual numbers of those receiving Live Register unemployment assistance and supports rose 0.8% on Q1 2011, not fallen. Meanwhile, as we know, over Q1 2011-Q1 2013, official labour force numbers fell 0.55%.