25/2/15: QNHS Q4 2014: Employment Growth by Sectors & Activity

In the first two posts covering the QNHS results for Q4 2014, I discussed

• Labour Force Participation Rate (poor news showing decline in the already historically low participation) and Unemployment Rate (goods news with unemployment - absent seasonal adjustment falling to 9.9% and the rate of decline in unemployment on quarterly basis accelerating): http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-labour-force.html
• The size of labour force (which is worrying and static at and around crisis trough) and broader measures of unemployment (at high enough levels to arrant concern, but declining rapidly, although inclusive of the state training programmes participants and emigration figures the declines are shallower than across the officially reported numbers), here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-broader-measures-of.html

Now, let's take a look at employment.

Total employment across all sectors stood at 1,938,900 in Q4 2014, up 1.52% y/y - a rate of increase that is slightly faster than 1.45% rise y/y recorded in Q3 2014. In level terms, employment rose 29,100 in 12 months through the end of 2014. Taking annual average, employment over 2014 rose 1.74% compared to 2013 average level of employment.

Despite this, Q2 2014 employment was still down 2.88% on crisis period peak employment although it is 6.24% above the crisis period trough. Relative to 2008 average, current employment levels are down 8.9%.

In simple term, to sum this result up, things are improving, but they are far from normal or where they should be.

Stripping out agriculture and public sector, private sector non-agricultural employment stood at 1,335,400 in Q4 2014, up 2.6% y/y, beating 1.32% rise in the same over 12 months through Q3 2014. In level terms, employment in non-agricultural private sectors rose 33,900, beating the headline total employment figures - a major good news.

Nonetheless, compared to 2008 average, private sector non-agricultural employment remains down 13.19%, while public sector (including sectors dominated by public employment) employment is up 4.8%.

As chart above shows, total employment is doing well, rising to the levels that are above the pre-crisis average and close to the difference between Q3 and Q4 2009. However, private non-agricultural employment is lagging, current at the levels well below pre-crisis average and between Q4 2009 - Q1 2010 levels.

Public and state-controlled sectors employment rose to 487,600 in Q4 2014, up 1.24% y/y (slower growth than in Q3 2014 when it expanded by 2.33% y/y), adding 6,100 jobs. Full year 2014 average employment levels here are 1.13% higher than full 2013 average. Q4 reading marks the highest level of non-private non-agricultural employment for the entire crisis period and is 4.8% above the 2008 average.

Meanwhile, agricultural employment shrunk 9.33% y/y in Q4 2014, having posted a decline of 0.81% y/y in Q3 2014. Loss of employment in the sector in 12 months through the end of Q4 2014 was 10,900, which was most likely partially responsible for gains of 13,100 in construction jobs. Still, over 12 months of 2014, agricultural employment levels were averaging 2.08% above the same for 2013.

Chart above shows basically flat employment in the state and state-controlled sectors, which, when contrasted with official public sector employment figures suggests shift of some public sector jobs from state to private contracting.

High value-added sectors also added jobs in Q4 2014, with 14,000 new jobs additions y/y a rate of employment growth of 2.03% y/y, virtually identical to 2.02% growth recorded in Q3 2014. As with state-controlled sectors employment, employment in high value-added sectors posted peak reading in Q4 2014 for the entire crisis period and stood 6.56% above 2008 average.

Table below provides summary of changes in employment across all sectors reported:

To summarise, we have healthy employment growth of 29,100 over 12 months of 2014 and the rate of growth has accelerated between Q3 and Q4. However, some sectors did post declines y/y in Q4 2014 and some posted weak performance to the upside. Good news is: private non-agricultural employment is rising faster than total employment and the rate of employment growth here accelerated in Q4 2014. High value-added sectors employment is also rising, at a rate faster than the overall employment is increasing.

25/2/15: QNHS Q4 2014: Broader Measures of Irish Unemployment

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-labour-force.html) I covered the QNHS results for Q4 2014 from the point of Labour Force Participation Rate (poor news showing decline in the already historically low participation) and Unemployment Rate (goods news with unemployment - absent seasonal adjustment falling to 9.9% and the rate of decline in unemployment on quarterly basis accelerating).

Here, let's consider actual size of the labour force and the broader measures of unemployment, including numbers on state training programmes (e.g. JobBridge) and factoring in estimates of inward and outward migration.

Few definitions are provided in the note below the post, so feel free to consult these.

Now, onto numbers.

Total size of Irish labour force at Q4 2014 stood at 2,152,500 down from 2,172,400 in Q3 2014 and down 10,600 on Q4 2013. This is not good. Compared to peak, current Labour Force is down 147,600 and compared to crisis period trough it is up 15,000. Over the last 12 months, irish labour force average levels were down 117,100 on pre-crisis average. All indicators point to a decline in labour force, consistent with the weak labour force participation rate reported in the previous post. All of this suggests that some share of improvements in unemployment performance is down to people dropping out of the labour force rather than the unemployed finding jobs.

As chart above highlights, remarkably, there has been basically no change in labour force numbers from H2 2010 through Q4 2014, something that is not consistent with our natural demographics, but is consistent with the story of outward emigration and dropping-out from the labour force by working age adults.

Now onto more pleasant news. All broader measures of unemployment have registered declines in Q4 2014 both y/y and q/q:

PLS1 indicator - basically a measure of unemployment fell 2.0 percentage points y/y in Q4 2014 to 10.5%, marking an acceleration in the rate of decline from 1.9% drop in Q3 2014.

PLS3 indicator, capturing those employed, unemployed, discouraged, plus all those not seeking a job for reasons other than being in Education & Training - has fallen from 15.1% in Q3 2014 to 13.3% - a drop of 2.7 percentage points y/y accelerated from 2.4 percentage points decline back in Q3 2014.

PLS4 - the broadest officially reported measure of unemployment that includes PLS3, and also underemployed - has fallen to 18.5 in Q4 2014, marking the first reading below 20% since Q1 2009. The measure is down 3.8 percentage points y/y and this marks a major acceleration in decline compared to 2.9 percentage points drop in Q3 2014.

Adding State Training Programmes participants to PLS$ to produce PLS4+STP puts the broader unemployment measure to 22.34%. This is the lowest reading since Q4 2009 and also marks acceleration in decline exactly matching that for PLS4.

Accounting (and this is rough estimation, so be warned) for net outward emigration, however, PLS4+STP measure of broad unemployment rises to 29.8% in Q4 2014. This marks a decline of 2.8 percentage points y/y and acceleration of decline from 2.0 percentage points drop in Q3 2014. However, the rates of decline in both Q3 and Q4 were shallower than for other measures, save PLS 1.

To summarise, labour force levels are worrying and static at and around crisis trough. Broader measures of unemployment show significant improvements, but the levels of unemployment, especially adjusted for state training programmes and potential adverse effects of net emigration are still high and more worrying than the headline unemployment measures suggest. While we do not know exactly, indications are - the data is consistent with at least some declines in unemployment officially recorded by the CSO coming not from jobs gains, but from emigration, state training programmes and exits from the labour force.

For example, compered to H1 2011, there were 23,373 more individuals that were participating in state training programmes who are not counted as unemployed. Furthermore, estimated net 94,800 individuals of working are have left Ireland between end of Q1 2011 through end of Q1 2014. They too are no longer counted in the labour force or in employment/unemployment statistics.


Note:

• PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.
• PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force
• PLS3 indicator is PLS2 plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
• PLS4 indicator is PLS3 plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
• PLS4+STP is the indicator combining PLS4 above and State Training Programmes Participants but excluding those of working age who emigrated (net of those who immigrated). 
• PLS4+STP+migration numbers reported below are reflective of PLS4+STP measure and add estimates of net emigration from Ireland based on latest available data extrapolated linearly over the year from May 2014 and adjusted for working age and labour force participation rate in the economy.

25/2/15: QNHS Q4 2014: Labour Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate

Some good news today from the QNHS report for Q4 2014 covering labour market conditions in the Irish economy. I will be detailing these throughout the day today, so stay tuned for more posts.

To start with, consider the labour force participation and unemployment rates - two key aggregate metrics for labour markets.

In Q4 2014, Labour Force Participation Rate in Ireland stood at 59.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from 60.1% in Q4 2013. By definition: The labour force participation rate is computed as an expression of the number of persons in the labour force as a percentage of the working age population. The labour force is the sum of the number of persons employed and of persons unemployed, but it excludes people in education and training, unless training is directly associated with employment. Currently, Labour Force Participation Rate is 125 basis points below the Q1 2000- Q4 2007 average of 61.23% and full 490 bps below the historical maximum. Which is not good news.

On seasonally-adjusted basis, Labour Force Participation Rate fell 0.1 percentage point quarter on quarter in Q4 2014 to 59.9%, matching the previous lowest point over the last 8 consecutive quarters.

Meanwhile, the official Unemployment Rate fell to 9.9 percent, the first sub-10 percent reading in 24 quarters. Which is great news. Year on year, unemployment rate is down from 11.7% in Q4 2013. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate, however, remained above 10 percent marker at 10.4%, but is down from 11.1% in Q3 2014.

In terms of unemployment rate, quarterly rate of decline registered in Q4 2014 stood at 0.7 percentage points, which is the strongest performance for any quarter since Q3 2013 when it posted a decline of 0.8 percentage points. Year on year decline in unemployment rate was 1.8 percentage points, slightly better than 1.7 percentage points decline in Q3 2014, but lower than 2.1 percentage points drop in Q2 2014.

All in, the news are good on unemployment statistics front, but poor on labour force participation side.

More analysis to follow.

27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: State Training & Supports vs Jobs Creation

Key summary of the previous posts covering QNHS for Q3 2014 is provided at the bottoms of the post (they are now getting longer than the posts, so I should probably end this analysis).

For the last bit, lets take a look at the unemployed numbers inclusive of the State Training Schemes (JobBridge et al) and State-Supported Employment (Live Register payments).

Official unemployment figures stood at 294,800 in Q3 2014, down 9.76% y/y (a reduction of 31,900). Official unemployment was down 22.91% on crisis peak levels (-87,600) and it was down 19.39% (-70,900) on Q1 2011 levels.

Factoring in State Training and Supports Schemes Participants, number of unemployed and those reliant on state supports for their employment stood at 381,700 in Q3 2014, down 7.74% y/y (-32,040). Compared to peak levels, this measure was down 18.08% or 84,230 and compared to Q1 2011 it was down 14.67% or 65,640.

Interestingly, there have also been significant changes in terms of self-employed.

Numbers of self-employed with paid employees rose 4.72% y/y in Q3 2014 (+4,000), while their counts were down 3.59% (-3,300) compared to Q1 2011. Numbers of self-employed with no paid employees rose 1.64% y/y (+3,700) and was up 13.15% (+26,600) compared to Q1 2011.

Now, as to the Government's claims of massive jobs creation during the Government tenure, total unemployment (ex state training schemes and programmes) fell 65,640 in Q3 2014 since Q1 2011, but 23,300 of this fall was accounted for by higher numbers in self-employment absent employees. Over 3.5 years, Government stewardship of the economy was, therefore, associated with employment-linked unemployment reduction of roughly 12,100 per annum.

(Do note, that any claim that the Government 'creates' jobs is a bit dodgy, and even more dodgy would be a claim that Government 'creates' self-employment, as the current Government has clearly shown by the record of its own policies, e.g. massive tax hikes and failure to equivalise access to supports, that it has zero interest in supporting self-employed in their business endeavours).



Summary of previous posts:
1) Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older)
2) Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average.
3) Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013.
4) Total population over 15 years of age increased by 0.08% y/y and population at work was up 1.7% y/y (+31,000), marking a slowdown in the rate of growth from 2.17% y/y in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Since Q1 2011 some 58,500 more people are at work, although this reflects seasonal variations. Numbers of those retired from employment rose to 416,700 - up 2.76% (+11,200) y/y and up 68,400 or +19.64% since Q1 2011. Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons and remains higher than historical average.
5) Both full-time employment and total employment accelerated in Q3 2014 compared to Q4 2013-Q1 2014 dynamics, with most of the new jobs creation taking place in the category of full-time employment. This is good news. Numbers of underemployed individuals fell. Which is another good news. However, as the proportion of total employment, full-time employment remains at the low levels. 

27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Full-, Part-Time and Underemployed

Key summary of the previous posts covering QNHS for Q3 2014 is provided at the bottoms of the post.

In this post, lets take a look at labour force breakdown by employment status.

For all persons aged 15 and older, 1,860,000 were classified as at work in Q3 2014, up 1.7% (+31,000) on Q3 2013 and up 3.25% (+58,500 on Q1 2011).

Of the above, 1,453,000 were in full-time employment, which represents an increase of 2.07% y/y (+26,100) and an increase of 5.2% (+70,000) on Q1 2011.

Part-time employment numbers rose to 387,000 or +0.6% y/y (+2,300) and their numbers were up 1.58% (+6,000) compared to Q1 2011. Of these, numbers of those claiming not to be underemployed rose 6.25% y/y (+16,100) and were up 3.36% (+8,900) on Q1 2011. In employment but underemployed numbers were down significantly in Q3 2014, falling 10.84% y/y (-13,700) and by 2.42% (-2,800) on Q1 2011.

As the result of the above changes, full-time employment as the share of total employment rose to 78.1% in Q3 2014 compared to 77.9% in Q3 2013. This is still well below the historical average of 83%.

Key conclusions: Both full-time employment and total employment accelerated in Q3 2014 compared to Q4 2013-Q1 2014 dynamics, with most of the new jobs creation taking place in the category of full-time employment. Numbers of underemployed individuals fell. Which is very good news. However, as the proportion of total employment, full-time employment remains at the low levels.



Summary of previous posts:

1. Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), 
2. Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average. 
3. Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013. 
4. Total population over 15 years of age increased by 0.08% y/y and population at work was up 1.7% y/y (+31,000), marking a slowdown in the rate of growth from 2.17% y/y in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Numbers of those retired from employment rose to 416,700 - up 2.76% (+11,200) y/y and up 68,400 or +19.64% since Q1 2011. Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons and remains higher than historical average. 

27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Employed, Unemployed & Retired

Key summary of the previous posts is:

1. Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), and
2. Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average. 
3. Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013. 

In this post, lets take a look at the QNHS breakdown by principal status.

Total population over 15 years of age stood at 3,595,600 in Q3 2014, which marks an increase of 0.08% y/y - a significant drop from 0.21% rise in Q2 2014. Compared to Q1 2014, total population over 15 years of age is down 0.1% (-3,500). In level terms, total population of age over 15 has increased 2,800 in Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013 while in Q2 2014 y/y increase was 7,600.

Population at work stood at 1,859,500, close to Q4 2009 levels of 1,859,200 and up 1.7% y/y (+31,000). However, this marks a slowdown in the rate of growth in numbers at work from 2.17% y/y growth in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Since Q1 2011 some 58,500 more people are at work, although this reflects seasonal variations.

Unemployed numbers fell to 294,800 in Q3 2014, down 9.76% y/y which is a faster rate of decline than in Q2 2014 when numbers unemployed declined 9.67%. In level terms, the rate of decline y/y in Q2 and Q3 2014 remained identical at 31,900.

Student numbers rose 0.5% to 401,000 in Q3 2014 compared to the same period of 2013. This compares to a 0.89% decline y/y in Q2 2014. Currently, number of students is running at 0.5% below Q1 2011 levels.

Numbers engaged on home duties dropped to 470,300 - a decline of 1.63% y/y in Q3 2014, having previously dropped 1.77% in Q2 2014. Overall, there has been a dramatic drop in numbers of those engaged on home duties compared to Q1 2011 - down 11.3% or 59,900.

Numbers of those retired from employment rose once again to 416,700 in Q3 2014 - a rate of y/y increase of 2.76% (+11,200) y/y. This marks acceleration in the y/y increases compared to Q2 2014 when numbers retired grew at an annual rate of 1.61%. Since Q1 2011, numbers retired are up dramatically - rising by 68,400 or +19.64%.

Overall, numbers of unemployed, retired and other (including in state training programmes) stood at 864,800 in Q3 2014 - a decline of 2.58% y/y, but down only 100 (-0.01%) on Q1 2011.


As the result of the above changes, Ireland's dependency ratio improved slightly in Q3 2014, as shown in the chart below:

Overall, Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons. This represents a slight improvement on H1 2014 ratio of 39.97 : 60.03. Nonetheless, dependency ratio remains higher than historical average of 42.58:57.42.

26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Participation and Unemployment Rates

Key summary of the two previous posts is:

1. Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), and
2. Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average. 

Now, lets take a look at the Labour Force Participation Rate. CSO defines this as "The labour force participation rate is computed as an expression of the number of persons in the labour force as a percentage of the working age population. The labour force is the sum of the number of persons employed and of persons unemployed."

In other words, any serious improvement in employment conditions should have one of the two effects:
1) Unemployed moving into employment have zero effect on participation; and
2) New jobs added for new workers (including those previously in unemployment who have left labour force or have moved into training and are now gaining jobs or re-entering workforce) should increase participation.

What do we have in Q3 2014? Judging by the above stats on total employment and unemployment numbers, we should see an improvement in participation rates.

Based on CSO data, Q3 2014 participation rate stood at 60.4, down 0.3 points on Q3 2013. This marks an improvement on 0.5 points drop recorded in Q2 2013. Meanwhile, Unemployment rate dropped to 11.3% in Q3 2014 - a decline of 1.7 points on Q3 2013. The rate of unemployment decline slowed down in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014 when the rate dropped 2.1 points.

The above suggests that a significant share of the changes in unemployment is not related to jobs creation (something I will cover in a separate post).

For quarterly changes, consider seasonally-adjusted data. Seasonally-adjusted participation rate stood at 60.0 in Q3 2014, up marginally from 59.9 in Q2 2014 and marginally below 60.1 in Q1 2014. The historical average for the series is 60.7, which means we are still well below the average participation rate. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate posted 0.4 points drop to 11.1% in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014. Q2 2014 quarterly decline was 0.5 points, which suggests a slowdown in the rate of unemployment improvements in Q3 2014.

Rate of changes unemployment are shown in the chart below.

The key conclusion from the above data is that Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013.

26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Employment by Broader Sectors

In the previous post I covered the issue of unemployment duration and distribution of long-term unemployment by age cohorts (see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ru/2014/11/26112014-qnhs-q3-2014-long-term.html).


So now, lets take a look at the sectoral distribution of jobs in the economy.

Across all economic sectors, employment numbers rose in Q3 2014 to 1,926,900 - a rise of 1.45% y/y (+27,600) which represents a slowdown in the rate of growth compared to Q2 2014 when employment expanded by 1.7%.

On a 4 quarters average, current employment levels are at 1,906,630 and this is 2.18% ahead of the 4 quarters average for the period through Q3 2013.

All good. Catch is: we are still only at slightly above Q4 2009 levels in terms of overall employment and are down 3.48% on the highest level recorded during the current crisis period. Overall levels of employment are still 9.47% below the 2008 average levels.

As I noted in previous post, there are good reasons to look at the non-agricultural private sector employment as core indicator for economic activity. Here, Q3 2014 level of employment is at 1,325,500 which is 1.32% (or 17,300) ahead of Q3 2013. The rate of employment growth in Q3 was also slower than in Q2 (1.68% y/y). Q4 2013-Q3 2014 average is at 1,302,900 which is 1.87% ahead of Q4 2012-Q3 2013 average.

Our jobs markets performance was fairly positive compared to 2010-present average as shown in the chart below, but much of this positive performance disappears once we take out public sector and agricultural jobs from the equation.

So in the nutshell, Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs.

Agricultural employment grew by 6.19% y/y in Q2 2014 and it shrunk by 0.81% (-900) in Q3 2014. Nonetheless, 4 quarters average currently stands at 111,700 which well ahead of the 4 quarters average through Q3 2013 which stood at 100,050.

Public and State-controlled sectors employment (basically state services, health and education) stood at 491,700 in Q3 2014, representing a rise of 2.33% y/y. In Q2 2014 sector employment rose 0.8% y/y. This is one of the few sectors (and the only one of the key three super-sectors identified here) that posted accelerated growth in employment in Q3 compared to Q2. Average for the four quarters through Q3 2014 stands at 492,030 which is 1.05% higher than the average for the four quarters through Q3 2013.

Let's take a different look at the numbers. Non-agricultural private sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average. All employment was 9.47% lower and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, public and state-controlled sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average.

Table below summarises changes for broader set of sectors.

26/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Long-Term Unemployment

As usual with QNHS release, I will be covering a number of various angles relating to the latest unemployment data in a number of posts.

Let's start with duration of unemployment.

Overall, some good news. Official unemployment numbers fell 13.2% y/y in Q3 2014 (a decline of 37,400) for all duration categories. However, the rate of decline has moderated in Q3 compared to Q2. In Q2 2014 y/y drop in unemployment was 15.4% (down 46,200), which means that Q3 unemployment decline was 19% lower than the same y/y decline in Q2.

Across all demographic groups, unemployment with duration of less than 1 year dropped 9.9% y/y in Q3 2014 (a decline of 11,300). Again, this is good news. And again the good news are slightly moderated by the fact that the rate of decline has slowed down in Q3 compared to Q2 when unemployment of duration less than 1 year declined by 14.9% (down 18,200).

Long-term unemployment (1 year and longer) across all demographic groups was down 15.7% in Q3 2014 (down 25,900). This is excellent news in general as long-term unemployment is the hardest to shift. However, the rate of decline in long-term unemployment was also slower in Q3 2014 than in Q2 2014. Another good news is that the decline in long term unemployment was concentrated in the middle-age cohorts of 25-44 year olds where long term unemployment dropped by 17.7% y/y in Q3 2014 (down 15,800).

Key relative stat here is the relative share of long-term unemployed in total pool of the unemployed. This is illustrated in the chart below:

The chart shows several interesting trends:

• Overall share of long term unemployed amongst all unemployed has been trending down since the crisis period peak reached in Q1 2012 (63.5%) and currently it stands at 58.0%. The trend, however, is rather shallow;
• The shallow nature of the trend in long term unemployment as a share of total unemployment is driven by one group: those aged 25-44.
• Contrasting this, there has been a roughly volatile and sharply declining trend in long-term unemployed share of total unemployment for those aged 15-24 years of age. Much of this decline is, however, driven by the changing nature of our unemployment benefits system, emigration and state training programmes, rather than jobs creation.
• A worrying trend is for the demographic of 45 years of age and older. Here, there is an effectively flat trend in the share of long-term unemployed relative to total number of unemployed. Q3 2014 is showing a decline in this share to 69.1%, but that is bang on comparable to Q1 2014 share and is almost identical to 69.3 share in Q3 2013.

The last bit is worth highlighting a little more. As chart below shows, we are still on a rising trend in terms of the 45 year olds and older cohorts as proportion of all unemployed by duration:

In other words, we are facing a big problem in dealing with older unemployed and especially with older long-term unemployed.

Two tables below summarise the main results for changes in y/y terms and compared to Q1 2011.

30/8/2014: Irish Unemployment: The Plight of Long-Term Unemployed Older Workers

Some blogposts based on the latest QNHS data for Q2 2014 are due next, so to start with:

Duration of Unemployment in Ireland:

Two tables below summarise y/y and current on Q1 2011 (tenure of the present Coalition Government) changes in unemployment by age groups and duration of unemployment.

Couple of things worth mentioning (keep in mind, analysis of other aspects of unemployment are to follow, so we are focusing here on duration of unemployment):

1. Overall unemployment declined. This is good news, albeit not very new nor very interesting.
2. Y/y there were more significant declines in long-term unemployment for all those in the labour force (year on year, down 16.3% for those unemployed 1 year and over as opposed to a decline of 15.4% for those in unemployment in general). 
3. There were comparable declines in unemployment compared to Q1 2011 for those in long-term unemployment (down 17.2%) as for all unemployed (down 17.3%).
4. Caveat to (2) and (3) above: while these are good numbers, longer term unemployment declines are more heavily influenced by drop outs from the workforce than other durations.
5. In year-on-year terms, 15-24 years old have performed significantly better than average in terms of declines in unemployment of any duration and somewhat better than average in terms of declines in long-term unemployment. This suggests that some component of the current younger long-term unemployed is still structural - and cannot be easily removed by switching them into either education, training or into new jobs. Younger long-term unemployed also performed better than average for their reference group in terms of current levels compared to Q1 2011. This suggests that there have been some successes in shifting younger people off unemployment and longer-term unemployment too. Which is good news.
6. In year-on-year terms, mid-age group of long-term unemployed outperformed the average in terms of declines in unemployment (-20.9% against -16.3% average). But overall declines in unemployment in this group are basically around average (-15.8% against -15.4% for the overall group). Things are better for this category of workers both in short and long-term unemployment when compared to Q1 2011. Again, this is good news.
7. Bad news are for the category of workers 45 years of age and over. Why? In year-on-year terms, their unemployment rates declined less than across all age categories (-11.8% for all 45+ years of age against -15.4% for all workers) and in comparison to Q1 2011, their unemployment levels are higher (+2.7% for all 45+ years of age against -17.3% for all workers). Even worse news are for the long-term unemployed workers of age 45 and over: their unemployment rates declined much less than across all age categories (-8.1% for all 45+ years of age against -16.3% for all workers) and in comparison to Q1 2011, their unemployment levels are significantly higher (+14.4% for all 45+ years of age against -17.2% for all workers). This is the bad news: older workers are becoming increasingly less and less employable and the jobs being created in the economy, as well as training and activation schemes made available by the state are not working for this group.

Thus, overall, share of longer-term unemployed is declining, but remains still very high, while share of the long-term unemployed in the older age cohort of workers is rising:

The problem of long-term unemployment is bad enough - unemployment of duration in excess of 6-12 months has very long-term effect on employability of the workers, their skills, their psychological well-being, but also permanent effect on their wages and the probability of future jobs losses spells, and so on. The problem of long-term older workers is worse. Workers left without the job for a year or so, whilst in their older age are facing much greater barrier to re-entry into the workforce and suffer much more significant losses to their pensions, health status and social standing than their younger counterparts. They are also much harder to re-train and up-skill, so activation programmes generally designed to deal with the acute unemployment crises are not suitable for their needs. 

Stay tuned for more analysis of QNHS figures.

5/3/2014: Broader Measures of Unemployment in Ireland: QNHS Q4 2013

Completing the coverage of Q4 2013 QNHS results for Ireland.

• First post covering detailed analysis of employment by sectors: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2722014-employment-by-sectors-qnhs-q4.html
• Second post covering employment across broader sectors and categories: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-new-employment-across-broader.html
• Third post covering Participation and Unemployment Rates: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-participation-and-unemployment.html
• Fourth post covering duration of unemployment by age group: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-duration-of-unemployment-qnhs.html

Now, let's take a look at broader measures of unemployment.

Methodology note: CSO reports the following measures of broader unemployment:

• PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers. This indicator is broadly comparable to the previously published S1 indicator. In the nutshell, PLS1 = unemployed persons plus discouraged workers.
• PLS2 = PLS1 + Potential Additional Labour Force
• PLS3 = PLS2 + others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in Education and training.
• PLS4 = PLS3 + plus underemployed

In addition, I use CSO data from Live Register and emigration to add two more metrics:

• PLS4+STP: PLS4 + State Training Programmes Participant
• PLS4+STPE: PLS4 + State Training Programmes Participants + Emigration

So let's take a look first at labour force. The data is not seasonally-adjusted.

In Q4 2013 there were 2,163,000 people in labour force in Ireland, an increase of 19,600 year on year (+0.9%). A small increase, but a welcome one, suggesting that emigration is not offsetting demographic inflows of workers into the labour force. However, the level of labour force is still below Q4 2011 and is down 137,000 on pre-crisis peak. On average over the entire 2013, levels of labour force were 110,600 behind the pre-crisis period average levels.

As chart above shows, the greater challenge for us is the flat-trending labour force over the period of 2011-2013.

Table and chart below summarise changes in the broader measures of unemployment:

The key takeaway from the above charts and the table is shallower declines in the broadest measures of unemployment officially reported (PLS2-PLS4) compared to PLS1 and the adverse impact of 'sticky' State Training Programmes on the measure. It appears that these programmes are not moving workers out of unemployment fast enough.

Keeping in mind that Emigration is imputed only through April 2013 (we do not have official data beyond that), the PLS4+STP+E measure likely underestimates overall changes in broad unemployment.

Just how bad things are on overall unemployment front? With caveats to data and estimation errors, the above shows that in Q4 2013, 31.7% of Irish potential (including emigrants and state training schemes participants) labour force was either unemployed, underemployed, discouraged from seeking employment, not seeking employment for some reason other than being in education, toiling for free at Job Bridge and other fine 'activation' programmes or 'partying' abroad. Happy times...

That number, incidentally, is down from 32.5% in Q4 2012, but is still above 30.9 in Q4 2011.

28/2/2014: Duration of Unemployment: QNHS Q4 2013

Continuing with the coverage of Q4 2013 QNHS results for Ireland:
- First post covering detailed analysis of employment by sectors: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2722014-employment-by-sectors-qnhs-q4.html
- Second post covering employment across broader sectors and categories: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-new-employment-across-broader.html
- Third post covering Participation and Unemployment Rates: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-participation-and-unemployment.html

In the current post let us consider changes in duration of unemployment.

The CSO reports two basic duration metrics:
- Less than 1 year,
- 1 year and over
And the data covers different age groups:
- All population 15 years and older
- Population 15-24 years of age,
- Population 25-44 years of age, and
- Population 45 years of age and older.

Here are the charts and quick commentary on these. The data is not seasonally-adjusted, so there is a lot of volatility and I am not going to do q/q analysis here.

For overall population 15 years of age and over:

• Q4 2013 total unemployment declined 14.05% (41,400 in level terms) compared to Q4 2012. In 2012, Q4 y/y decline was -6.1% (-19,300 in level terms). Thus, 2013 numbers are much better compered to 2012 numbers, as one should expect.
• Of these, unemployment numbers for duration less than 1 year have declined 18% (-20,900) in Q4 2013. Te good news - this reversed 2012 y/y rise of 2.0% (+2,300).
• Unemployment with duration over 1 year has fallen as well, in Q4 2013 this was down 11.8% (-20,900) compared to Q4 2012, which is a small gain on decline recorded in Q4 2012 (y/y -10% and -19,700).

So good news here is that numbers are declining for both long-term and short-term unemployed. However, while overall unemployment numbers have now fallen to the levels below those recorded in Q4 2009 (though ahead of those in Q4 2008), long-term unemployed numbers are down to the levels below those recorded in Q4 2010 and are way ahead of those in Q4 2009.

Since the current Government came to power (H1 2011), unemployed numbers for those over the age 15 are down 59,300, of which 36,050 declines came from the ranks of short-term unemployed and 22,050 declines came from the ranks of long-term unemployed.

Given the difficulty of reducing long-term unemployment compared to short-term unemployment, this is still a good record.

However, given that we do not know how many of long-term unemployed are gaining jobs vs how many are dropping out of the labour force (emigration or exits from workforce) we really have little to go in identifying how god the above aggregates really are.

Charts below plot unemployment by duration for different age groups.

Youth unemployment (15-24 years of age) is shrinking. Across total youth unemployment, in Q4 2013 numbers unemployed fell 17.3% y/y (down 10,200 in level terms), building on 12.9% (-8,700) decline in Q4 2012.

Compared to H1 2011, youth unemployment is down 19,950 (-29%) overall, with 11,000 of this decline coming from short-term unemployed figures and 8,450 from long-term unemployed ranks.

The problem with the above numbers is that we do not know the sources for these declines in youth unemployment. These, in addition to people gaining jobs, include demographic transition (entry of new young workers and exists of previously younger workers into the next category of 25-44 year olds), exits to and entries from education and training, including State Training programmes, emigration, including short-term migration on post-education visas and so on).

The weakest performance by age group is in the 45 and over category. Here, in Q4 2013 the numbers unemployed declined only 8.6% y/y (down 6,900 in level terms). The good news is that this reversed the rise in unemployment in this category recorded in 12 months through Q4 2012 (+3.0% and +2,300). Compared to H1 2011, numbers unemployed in this age group are still higher (+2.8% and +2,000). Numbers of long-term unemployed dipped in Q4 2013 only slightly (by 6.7% or -3,700) and compared to H1 2011 long-term unemployment in this age category is still up +11.4% or +5,250.

So overall, these are pretty solid numbers,with core reading showing that total number of unemployed for age 15 and over is currently at the lowest level for any Q4 period since (and including) Q4 2009.

Lastly, on severity of long-term unemployment, consider the chart plotting percentage of long-term unemployed in each age group total unemployment numbers:

This clearly shows that since around H2 2012, the positive trends in overall unemployment are broadly translating into symmetric reductions in unemployment for both short-term and long-term unemployed for all age groups. Again, this is a positive trend in the short run, as long-term unemployment is the hardest (or the stickiest) of all forms of unemployment and we can expect an upward trend in these charts. This was indeed the case in the period prior to H2 2012. Since then, however, we are seeing reductions in unemployment of relatively similar proportions for short-term and long-term unemployed.

28/2/2014: Participation and Unemployment Rates: QNHS Q4 2013

Having covered sectoral and broader aggregates QNHS results for employment levels (see post here for links: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2822014-new-employment-across-broader.html), it is now time to take a look at participation rate and unemployment rate.

At the end of Q4 2013, seasonally-adjusted participation rate stood at 60.4%, up on 60.3% in Q3 2013 and 59.8% in Q4 2012. Compared to H1 2011 average (the period when the current Government came to power), the participation rate is up 0.3 percentage points.

Historical average for the seasonally-adjusted rate is 60.77% so we are just a whisker away from hitting this landmark. At the current rate of adjustment, we should be there around Q2-Q3 2014.

At the end of Q4 2013, official seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 12.1 from 12.7 in Q3 2013 (a very strong decline),  this marks the second sharpest correction downward in unemployment rate for the entire period of the crisis.

Over the year, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has fallen full 2.1 percentage points from 14.2 to 12.1, improving on 2.0 percentage points decline y/y in Q3 2013. Compared to H1 2011, unemployment rate is now down 2.5 percentage points.

Q4 2013 marks the fifth consecutive quarter of declines in unemployment rate (q/q terms) and current rate is at the levels comparable with Q2 2009. All of which is very good news, despite all the possible caveats to data arising from potential impact of emigration and state training programmes participation (I will be covering these figures in my analysis of broader measures of unemployment as usual, next).

28/2/2014: New Employment Across Broader Categories: QNHS Q4 2013

In the previous post (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2014/02/2722014-employment-by-sectors-qnhs-q4.html), I covered detailed breakdowns in employment numbers changes across various sectors of the economy. Here, I will briefly identify sub-trends relating to aggregate data.

A caveat: per my discussion before, I will also report here numbers in employment ex-agriculture. In my view, it is questionable as to how agricultural employment is registered in the first place, since many/some of today's famers used to be construction sector employees or self-employed contractors. How many? We do not know. How many claimed unemployment in the past and now, having run-out of benefits, declared themselves to be farmers or farm employees for the purpose of optimising extraction of subsidies or supports? We do not know. Hence, I will omit farming employment from consideration in one sub-set of the aggregate figures (clearly labeled and identified below). This is done not because all of the employment in this sector is somehow 'bad' or 'unproductive' but because

1. we do not know how much of this employment is real and of what quality, and
2. employment in agriculture is different in nature (and in valued added) to employment in all other sectors of the economy (this is the reason why many other jurisdictions report non-farm employment numbers and/or private non-farm employment numbers).

Definitions for table and chart below:

• Non-agricultural Private Sectors include all sectors, with exception of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, and Public & State-controlled Sectors Employment (as defined below)
• Public & State-controlled Sectors Employment covers employment in Public admin & defence, social security (O), Education (P) and Human health & social work (Q). This grouping is not designed to measure public sector employment levels (I will blog on these later separately), but rather identify separately employment in the economy relating to sectors largely controlled by public sector and heavily influenced by state policies on employment and activity.
• High-value added activities employment covers the following sectors: Information and communication (J), Professional, scientific & technical activities (M), Education (P), Human health & social work (Q), Financial, insurance & real estate (K,L)

Table below summarises changes on H1 2011 average and Q4 2013:

The claim is that there were 60,900 jobs added (employment created) in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. Of these, slightly less than half were added in the private non-agricultural employment sectors (29,600), while Public & State-controlled Sectors employment grew by 4,500 and agricultural employment expanded by 26,800. The numbers are strong and positive.

High-value added sectors of employment showed weaker performance, adding only 12,100 new employees in 12 months through Q4 2013. This, of course, comes on foot of strong performance in 2012, as evidenced by the total number in sector employment rising by 23,600 between H1 2011 and Q4 2013.

Although it is unclear if they include any of the State Training Programmes participants (if they do, as we know they are excluded from unemployment counts), then the numbers are less impressive.

Dynamics across the categories are shown in the chart below:

Dynamics across all aggregates are positive, with exception of the Public & State-controlled Sectors where things are moving sideways. Not quite down significantly and not up. Pick up in non-agricultural private sector employment is weak and unconvincing for now, so it would be good to see steady gains over 2014 in this category.

One thing to keep in mind is that the claimed 61,000 new jobs created is a suspect claim for two reasons:

1) It is subject to modification on the basis of quality adjustments (in part, I will do this when I am reviewing full-time vs part-time employment figures; and in part due to agricultural employment issues highlighted above)

2) The impact of the State Training Programmes, which are for now unknown in terms of how they register in the above data

On the other hands, there have been new jobs added in both higher value-added sectors and in non-agricultural private sectors, as detailed above. This, undoubtedly is a good news.

Stay tuned for more analysis of QNHS data tomorrow.

27/2/2014: Employment by Sectors: QNHS Q4 2013

Quarterly National Household Survey is out for Q4 2013. Here is the first post looking at the sectoral jobs distribution and jobs 'creation' or rather employment additions.

The next post will cover aggregate employment levels data.

Key to tables below: red denotes reduced numbers in employment in specific sub-sector/sector, green denotes increases in employment. In the tables, I reference current level of employment on H1 2011 average - the period when the current Government came to power.

Table 1:

As the above shows, there was a massive recorded increase in numbers in employment in agriculture. These numbers are driven by the unknown factors, as they are impacted by revaluations applied by the CSO. CSO detail the issues involved with this data in their notes: http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2013/qnhs_q42013.pdf
so there is no need for me to go into deep explanations.

Outside Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, there were modest y/y gains in Construction sector, totalling just 400 jobs. For all the reported activity in the sector - with investors flocking to our shores and building industry posting alleged revivals, there is preciously little to show here in terms of jobs creation since the current Government came to power. Still, good news is that employment is up y/y. May this be a trend, rather than a blip. Construction sector employment has been trending at around Q4 2013 levels since Q1 2011, showing no serious uplifts.

In contrast, Wholesale & Retail Trade, etc sector saw massive drop off in employment, down 3,000 in a year through Q4 2013. The sector is now at the levels last seen in Q4 2004, and Q2 2013 was the second lowest quarterly reading over the current crisis period.

Transportation & Storage sector is basically showing the same signs as Construction sector, with a small rise in employment of just 600 jobs in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. The sector is still down on H1 2011. Q4 2013 marks the second lowest Q4 on record for the period of the crisis.

Accommodation & Food Services sector is gaining jobs at a nice pace. Employment is up 23,150 since H1 2011 and of this increase, 17,400 came in the twelve months through Q4 2013. This is an unambiguous positive, since the sector is now very close to regaining 2007 highs in employment.

Table 2:

As above shows, things are slipping somewhat in the Information & Communication sector, with employment gains since H1 2011 running at a a strong 7,250 on H1 2011, but employment levels down modest 700 jobs in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012. Still, Q4 2012 was the absolute record level for employment in the sector, so some retrenchment, especially mild, is ok. The problem, of course, is that this sector is the focal point of all the talk about Irish economy becoming a haven for ICT services jobs. The technical and specialist jobs in this area go into this category, while business services jobs are absorbed into the next two categories.

The above explains why we are witnessing a significant rise in employment in Professional, Scientific & Technical activities sector, where employment rose 11,500 in Q4 2013 compared to H1 2011, and the rise was even sharper (by 13,000) in 12 months through Q4 2013. Very good signal, of course, is that employment in this sector of activities was on a strong rise now since Q4 2011 and we are now just 2,900 jobs shy of the all-time high posted in Q2 2008.

Things were, however, more mixed in Administrative & Support Services sector, where Q4 2013 employment recorded a decent rise of 1,300 jobs compared to Q4 2012, but still posted a loss of 2,600 jobs compared to H1 2011. We are currently running on flat trend from Q4 2009-Q1 2010 albeit with high volatility in the series.

Public Administration & Defence have been shrinking in employment levels, with employment decline of 1,000 in 12 months through Q4 2013. Over the period from H1 2011, employment in this sector is down 6,800, which sounds impressive, as long as we assume that there was no reclassification of employees from this category to other state-controlled or state-related areas, such as Health and Education, Transport etc. I will blog on public sector employment numbers separately, so stay tuned for more analysis.

Education has returned higher employment in Q4 2013 compared to Q4 2012 - a rise of 1,600, but the levels of employment remain lower (by a very small number of 250) compared to H1 2011. It would be interesting to know if the latest changes are driven by private employment, part-time employment or full-time public employment. Alas, we do not have that information.

Table 3

As with Education, Human Health & Social Work also posted an increase in employment over 12 months through Q4 2013, rising by a very significant 3,900. Despite all the 'cuts' talk, sector employment is now 10,400 ahead of where it was in H1 2011.

The chart below summarises the trends in Human Health & Social Work, Education and Public Administration & Defence:

Back to table 3 above:

Industry employment (excluding Construction) rose strongly, some 6,400 in 12 months through Q4 2013, and employment growth is more moderate, at +4,650 when compared against H1 2011 levels. This is good news and confirms my thesis that we are witnessing some (albeit still fragile) organic recovery in the sector.

Services sectors on the aggregate basis posted a rise of 29,300 jobs in 12 months though Q4 2013 and there was a very similar increase on H1 2011 figures.

However, there was strong contraction in employment in the Financial Services, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with employment down 5,300 on H1 2011 and 5,700 on Q4 2012.

In the next post, I will take a look at the Total Employment, Non-Agricultural Employment, Public Sector and State-Controlled Sectors Employment and other core aggregates.

27/11/2013: Irish Employment by Sectors: Q3 2013

In the previous post I looked at the data from QNHS on broader measures of unemployment in the economy (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2013/11/26112013-broader-unemployment.html). This time, let's take a look at employment numbers across various sectors. The data below is not seasonally adjusted, so these are actual counts.

Starting from the top:

• Overall employment levels at the end of Q3 2013 stood at 1,899,300 which represents a rise of 3.15% y/y. Over the last 12 months, employment averaged 1,865,930 which is 1.54% ahead of employment levels 12 months average through Q3 2012.
• Relative to pre-crisis levels (average of 2008), employment is still down 10.76%, but compared to the crisis period trough we are up 4.07%.
• Current levels of employment are the highest since Q2 2010.
• Agricultural employment changes are well highlighted by the CSO and as such I will not interpret these here.
• Non-agricultural private sector employment is at 1,308,200 in Q3 2013, up 2.98% y/y. 12 months average level through Q3 2013 is at 1,278,950 up 0.99% on 12 months average through Q3 2012. Not exactly spectacular change, but still a welcome positive reading. Relative to pre-crisis 2008 average, non-agricultural private sector employment was 14.96% lower in Q3 2013.
• Public sector and state-controlled sectors (health and education) employment fell 0.99% y/y to 480,500. 12mo average through Q3 2013 was at 486,930 which is 0.16% down on previous 12mo average through Q3 2012. Not exactly a massive drop-off. However, compared to 2008 average, employment in this category is 1.2% higher in Q3 2013 - a poor omen for the claims of significant reductions in public and state-controlled employment. 

Chart to illustrate:

Welcoming changes in the higher value-added sectors of the economy:

• ICT sector employment stood at 82,000 in Q3 2013, up 4.86% y/y. 12mo average through Q3 2013 is at 80,750 and this is up 2.34% on 12mo average through Q3 2012. Levels of employment in the sector in Q3 2013 were 14.77% ahead of 2008 average.
• Professional, scientific and technical activities employment rose to 113,300 in Q3 2013 up 10.86% y/y and the 12mo average through Q3 2013 stood at 106,350 which is 7.1% higher than in 12 months through Q3 2012. Nonetheless, the sector employment levels in Q3 2013 were 2.22% below the 2008 average.
• Administrative and support services employment stood at 64,700 in Q3 2013, down 2.85% y/y and 12mo average through Q3 2013 was at 61,350 which is 4.66% below the average through Q3 2012. The sector employment is still well below 2008 levels - down 15.73%.
• Financial, insurance and real estate services employment fell 0.78% y/y to 101,500 in Q3 2013 and 12mo average through Q3 2013 was at 100,730 down 0.93% on 12mo average through Q3 2012. Compared to pre-crisis levels (2008 average) employment in this sector is down 5.10% in Q3 2013.

Education, Health and Public Administration all showed continued weaknesses:

• Public administration and defence, compulsory social security sector employment declined 3.61% y/y to 96,100, and 12 mo average through Q3 2013 stood at 95,600 or 4.66% lower than over 12 months through Q3 2102.Relative to 2008 average, employment in the sector is now down 8.63%.
• Education sector employment rose 0.14% y/y to 140,800. Sector employment averaged 145,980 in 12 months through Q3 2013 which is 1.02% ahead of 12 months average through Q3 2012. However, compared to 2008 average, Q3 2013 level was 3.13% lower.
• Human Health and Social Work sector employment was down 0.57% y/y in Q3 2013. 12mo average through Q3 2013 stood at 245,350 which is 0.99% higher than 12mo average through Q3 2012. Compared to 2008 average, Q3 2013 reading was 8.62% higher.

Employment in Industry is quietly running slightly up despite overall decline in goods exports values:

• Industry ex-Construction sector employment rose 4.72% y/y in Q3 2013 to 242,000 and was up in 12mo average terms by 1.3%. However, compared to pre-crisis average for 2008, Q3 2013 reading was still 15.98% lower.
• Industry including construction sector employment rose 4.58% y/y to 347,300. In 12mo through Q3 2013, employment in the sector was up 0.59% compared to 12 months average through Q3 2012. Relative to pre-crisis average for 2008, employment in sector stood massive 34.15% lower in Q3 2013.
• Meanwhile, services employment rose 1.30% y/y in Q3 2013 to1,439,200. In 12mo through Q3 2013 employment averaged 1,423,050 which is 0.7% higher than for the same period in 2012. Compared to 2008 average levels, Q3 2013 employment in Services stood at -2.64%.

So on the net - some good aggregate numbers. Rates of increases, especially averaging-out over 12 months (4 quarters) period are still not exactly spectacular, but we do have overall growth in employment and this growth is also present in the higher value-added sectors. 

Here is the summary of changes for the period since the current Government took office: