27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Full-, Part-Time and Underemployed

Key summary of the previous posts covering QNHS for Q3 2014 is provided at the bottoms of the post.

In this post, lets take a look at labour force breakdown by employment status.

For all persons aged 15 and older, 1,860,000 were classified as at work in Q3 2014, up 1.7% (+31,000) on Q3 2013 and up 3.25% (+58,500 on Q1 2011).

Of the above, 1,453,000 were in full-time employment, which represents an increase of 2.07% y/y (+26,100) and an increase of 5.2% (+70,000) on Q1 2011.

Part-time employment numbers rose to 387,000 or +0.6% y/y (+2,300) and their numbers were up 1.58% (+6,000) compared to Q1 2011. Of these, numbers of those claiming not to be underemployed rose 6.25% y/y (+16,100) and were up 3.36% (+8,900) on Q1 2011. In employment but underemployed numbers were down significantly in Q3 2014, falling 10.84% y/y (-13,700) and by 2.42% (-2,800) on Q1 2011.

As the result of the above changes, full-time employment as the share of total employment rose to 78.1% in Q3 2014 compared to 77.9% in Q3 2013. This is still well below the historical average of 83%.

Key conclusions: Both full-time employment and total employment accelerated in Q3 2014 compared to Q4 2013-Q1 2014 dynamics, with most of the new jobs creation taking place in the category of full-time employment. Numbers of underemployed individuals fell. Which is very good news. However, as the proportion of total employment, full-time employment remains at the low levels.



Summary of previous posts:

1. Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), 
2. Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average. 
3. Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013. 
4. Total population over 15 years of age increased by 0.08% y/y and population at work was up 1.7% y/y (+31,000), marking a slowdown in the rate of growth from 2.17% y/y in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Numbers of those retired from employment rose to 416,700 - up 2.76% (+11,200) y/y and up 68,400 or +19.64% since Q1 2011. Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons and remains higher than historical average. 

16/09/2011: QNHS 2Q 2011 - things are getting frighteningly worse less rapidly

This is the first of two posts on QNHS 2Q 2011 data released yesterday.

Yesterday's QNHS results for 2Q 2011 confirmed the continuation in the trend weaknesses in Irish labour markets, with some moderation in the rate of deterioration qoq.

Per CSO: "There was an annual decrease in employment of 2.0% or 37,800 in the year to the second quarter of 2011, bringing total employment to 1,821,300. This compares with an annual decrease in employment of 2.9% in the previous quarter and a decrease of 4.1% in the year to the second quarter of 2010."

Other core stats and changes are:

• The annual decrease in employment of 2.0% is the lowest annual decline since 3Q 2008.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment fell by 3,200 (-0.2%) in the quarter. This follows on from a seasonally adjusted fall in employment of 7,200 (-0.4%) in Q1 2011. The 2Q 2011 fall in employment is the lowest quarterly decrease recorded in the seasonally adjusted series since 1Q 2008.
• The largest decrease in employment over the year was recorded for the 25-34 year age group (-27,500 or -5.0%). A reduction of 21,100 was also recorded for the 20-24 age group (-15.0%). Numbers in employment are now down 324,900 on the peak attained in 4Q 2007.
  

The total number of persons in the labour force in 2Q 2011 was 2,125,900, representing a decrease of 26,800 (-1.2%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force decrease of 50,400 (-2.3%) in Q2 2010. This marks a decrease of 128,500 on the peak reached back in 1Q 2008.

Unemployment rose 10,900 (+3.7%) in the year to 2Q 2011 with 304,500 now unemployed (male unemployment increasing by 5,600 (+2.8%) to 205,700 and female unemployment increasing by 5,200 (+5.6%) to 98,800). The unemployment rate increased from 13.6% to 14.3% yoy in 2Q 2011.

The long-term unemployment rate increased from 5.9% to 7.7% over the year to Q2 2011. Long-term unemployment accounted for 53.9% of total unemployment in Q2 2011 compared with 43.3% a year earlier and 21.7% in the second quarter of 2009.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 13.9% to 14.2% over the quarter.
Full-time employment fell by 53,000 (-3.7%) yoy with declines in both male (-33,700) and female (-19,300) full-time employment. Per CSO: "This decline in full-time employment was partially offset by an increase in the number of part-time workers where the numbers increased by 15,200 (+3.7%) over the year. Part-time employment now accounts for 23.4% of total employment. This had been as low as 16.7% in Q3 2006." Full-time employment is now down 367,600 on peak (4Q 2007) and part-time employment is now at its new peak at 426,800 - up 40,800 on 4Q 2007.


Part-time underemployment (a form of unemployment, really) increased by 23,000 (+20.9%) from 110,100 to 133,100 over the year. Part-time underemployment now represents just under one-third (31.3%) of total part-time employment, up from 26.8% a year earlier. Among males, part-time underemployment is close to half of total part-time employment (46.7%), up from approximately 42% a year earlier. For females the comparative proportion is one quarter (25.0%), but as with males this proportion has been increasing over time.

Now to the frightening number: combined unemployed and underemployed part-timers now stand at a frightening 434,700 or 20.5% of the labor force. This number is up from 400,300 a year ago (+8.6%).

So, on the net we have:

• flattening out of the unemployment increases curve, but continued increases, nonetheless
• flattening out of labor force decreases rate, but continued declines in labor force
• increasing share of employment taken up by part-time employed
• increasing share of long-term unemployed and underemployed in the labor force.
  

And LR confirms this diagnosis:
It's not exactly 'turning the corner' moment, is it?