25/2/15: QNHS Q4 2014: Employment, Part-Time, Full-Time, & Underemployment

In the first three posts covering the QNHS results for Q4 2014, I discussed

• Labour Force Participation Rate (poor news showing decline in the already historically low participation) and Unemployment Rate (goods news with unemployment - absent seasonal adjustment falling to 9.9% and the rate of decline in unemployment on quarterly basis accelerating): http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-labour-force.html
• The size of labour force (which is worrying and static at and around crisis trough) and broader measures of unemployment (at high enough levels to arrant concern, but declining rapidly, although inclusive of the state training programmes participants and emigration figures the declines are shallower than across the officially reported numbers), here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-broader-measures-of.html
• Employment growth overall and by sectors was covered here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/02/25215-qnhs-q4-2014-employment-growth-by.html. Employment grew by 29,100 over 12 months of 2014 and the rate of growth has accelerated between Q3 and Q4. Private non-agricultural employment is rising faster than total employment and the rate of employment growth here also accelerated in Q4 2014. High value-added sectors employment is also rising, at a rate faster than the overall employment is increasing.

Now, let's consider labour force breakdown by economic status.

Total number of working age adults residing in Ireland (age 15 and over) rose to 3,601,900 in Q4 2014 from 3,595,600 in Q3 2014, up 0.13% y/y (+4,500).

Of these, numbers of those at work rose to 1,877,900 in Q4 2013, up 1.56% y/y or 28,800. This is a key number as it reflects total creation of jobs in the economy. The rate of increases in the number of those at work was slower in Q4 2014 than in Q3 2014 (+1.7%). Compared to Q1 2011 (when the current Government took office), there number of those at work in Q4 2014 was up 4.27% or 76,900.

Number of those unemployed fell 13.05% y/y in Q4 2014 to 263,900 - a rate of y/y decline that is faster than 9.76 drop recorded in Q3 2014. Which is very good news. Overall, there were 39,600 fewer unemployed in Q4 2014 than in Q4 2013. Which is also a good number.

Now, between Q1 2011 and Q4 2014, 76,900 more adults went to work, but unemployment fell by 101,800, which shows that 24,900 adults have moved out of unemployment but did not go to work.

Number of students in Q4 2014 stood at 415,100 which is down 0.1% y/y (-400) and is up 3% (+12,100) on Q1 2011.

Number of those engaged on home duties stood at 476,300 in Q4 2014, up 0.55% y/y (+2,600). This increase stands contrasted by a 1.63% drop in Q3 2014 y/y. Since Q1 2011, the number of those engaged in home duties fell 10.17% (-53,900).

417,800 individuals of age 15 and over were officially in retirement in Q4 2014, up 2.93% (+11,900) y/y and up 19.95% (+69,500) on Q1 2011 - a massive increase clearly driven in part by early retirement schemes deployed in the public sector.

The mysterious category of 'Other' - those neither working, nor studying, nor unemployed, nor working on home duties, nor retired - was at 150,800, up 0.8% (+1,200) y/y and down 100 (-0.07%) on Q1 2011.

Recall that there were 1,877,900 individuals at work in Ireland in Q4 2014, a number that is 28,800 higher than in Q4 2013 and 76,900 higher than in Q1 2011. Of these, 1,474,300 individuals were in full time employment - an increase of 38,300 (+2.67%) y/y and a rise of 91,300 (+6.6%) since Q1 2011. Which shows clearly that new employment growth has been more significant in full-time category and there have been some transitions from part-time to full-time jobs. This is excellent news.

Meanwhile, number of those in part-time employment dropped to 383,600, down 2.34% (-9,200) y/y but up 3,100 (+0.81%) on Q1 2011.

Taking a closer look at part-time employment: In Q4 2014, number of part-time workers who reported themselves not underemployed was 276,000, up 5.59% y/y or 14,600. Compared to Q1 2011, there were 11,000 (+4.15%) more phis too is good news. And it confirms the suspicion that jobs quality has improved in recent quarters. Further indication of same is the number of those who are employed part time but do report themselves to be underemployed. This number stood at 107,600 in Q4 2014, down 18.17% y/y (-23,900) and down 7,900 (-6.84%) on Q1 2011.

Two charts to illustrate the aforementioned trends:

Overall conclusion: the quality of employment is improving, with more increases in full time employment and in part time not underemployed jobs. Rapid rate of growth in those in retirement (+65,900 on Q1 2011) relative to those at work (+76,900 over the same period) is worrying, however.

27/11/2014: QNHS Q3 2014: Employed, Unemployed & Retired

Key summary of the previous posts is:

1. Unemployment is falling across all durations and all demographic (age-defined) cohorts, but the pressure of long-term unemployment is rising in the cohort of older workers (40 years of age and older), and
2. Irish economy added 27,600 jobs in a year though Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013. but only 17,300 of these jobs were private sector non-agricultural jobs. On longer-term trend: Non-agricultural Private Sector employment in Q3 2014 was 13.83 lower than 2008 average and Agricultural employment was 4.9% lower. In contrast, Public and State-controlled Sectors employment in Q3 2014 was 3.56% higher than 2008 average. 
3. Ireland's participation rate remains below historical average and despite a slight improvement in Q3 2014 compared to Q2 2014, labour force participation rate remains lower than for the same period in 2013. 

In this post, lets take a look at the QNHS breakdown by principal status.

Total population over 15 years of age stood at 3,595,600 in Q3 2014, which marks an increase of 0.08% y/y - a significant drop from 0.21% rise in Q2 2014. Compared to Q1 2014, total population over 15 years of age is down 0.1% (-3,500). In level terms, total population of age over 15 has increased 2,800 in Q3 2014 compared to Q3 2013 while in Q2 2014 y/y increase was 7,600.

Population at work stood at 1,859,500, close to Q4 2009 levels of 1,859,200 and up 1.7% y/y (+31,000). However, this marks a slowdown in the rate of growth in numbers at work from 2.17% y/y growth in Q2 2014 (+39,100). Since Q1 2011 some 58,500 more people are at work, although this reflects seasonal variations.

Unemployed numbers fell to 294,800 in Q3 2014, down 9.76% y/y which is a faster rate of decline than in Q2 2014 when numbers unemployed declined 9.67%. In level terms, the rate of decline y/y in Q2 and Q3 2014 remained identical at 31,900.

Student numbers rose 0.5% to 401,000 in Q3 2014 compared to the same period of 2013. This compares to a 0.89% decline y/y in Q2 2014. Currently, number of students is running at 0.5% below Q1 2011 levels.

Numbers engaged on home duties dropped to 470,300 - a decline of 1.63% y/y in Q3 2014, having previously dropped 1.77% in Q2 2014. Overall, there has been a dramatic drop in numbers of those engaged on home duties compared to Q1 2011 - down 11.3% or 59,900.

Numbers of those retired from employment rose once again to 416,700 in Q3 2014 - a rate of y/y increase of 2.76% (+11,200) y/y. This marks acceleration in the y/y increases compared to Q2 2014 when numbers retired grew at an annual rate of 1.61%. Since Q1 2011, numbers retired are up dramatically - rising by 68,400 or +19.64%.

Overall, numbers of unemployed, retired and other (including in state training programmes) stood at 864,800 in Q3 2014 - a decline of 2.58% y/y, but down only 100 (-0.01%) on Q1 2011.


As the result of the above changes, Ireland's dependency ratio improved slightly in Q3 2014, as shown in the chart below:

Overall, Q3 2014 dependency ratio was 40.34 individuals at work to 59.66 individuals not working for various reasons. This represents a slight improvement on H1 2014 ratio of 39.97 : 60.03. Nonetheless, dependency ratio remains higher than historical average of 42.58:57.42.