Sunday, March 25, 2012

25/3/2012: QNA Q4 2011 - Part 3

In part 1 of the QNA analysis we covered annual results for annual GDP and GNP in constant prices terms. Part 2 analysis focused on GDP/GNP gap and losses in national income compared to pre-crisis trend. Here, we cover some quarterly trends for GDP and GNP based on constant prices data.

Let's consider changes by sector:

  • Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector output fell 5.1% yoy in Q4 2011 following a 9.34% rise yoy in Q3 2011. In Q4 2011 the sector accounted for just 1.26% of the total quarterly GDP. Compared to Q4 2007 the sector output is now down 6.0%.
  • Industry output rose 2.3% yoy in Q4 2011 after rising 6.25% in Q3 2011. The sector is now accounting for 28.34% of the quarterly domestic output. Sector output is now down 3.3% when compared against Q4 2007.
  • Building & Construction sub-sector of Industry sector posted yoy decline of 6.7% inQ4 2011 that follows on 39.32% drop in Q3 2011. The sub-sector is now accounting for just 2.62% of total output and is down 55.0% on Q4 2007.
  • Distribution transport and communications sector shrunk 0.6% yoy in Q4 2011 which follows 4.99% drop in Q3 2011. The sector accounts for 13.23% of total output and is down 17.3% on Q4 2007.
  • Public administration and defence sector shrunk 3.8% yoy in Q4 2011 which follows on a 6.53% contraction in Q3 2011. The sector now accounts for 3.58% of the domestic output and is down 6.5% on Q4 2007.
  • Other services including rents output contracted 3.1% yoy in Q4 2011 following on a 5.14% contraction in Q3 2011. The sector accounts for 42.37% of the economy and is down 12.5% on Q4 2007.
  • As the result of this, GDPat constant factor cost expanded in Q4 2011 by 1.1% yoy and this follows on a rise of 0.88% in Q3 2011. This metric of domestic output is now dow 10.6% on Q4 2007.
  • Taxes net of subsidies are down 2.3% yoy in Q4 2011 and this follows a 2.76% drop in Q3 2011. This accounts for 9.70% of GDP and the category is now down 30.0% compared to Q4 2007.
  • Headline GDP at constant market prices rose 0.7% yoy after expanding 0.52% in Q3 2011. The GDP at constant prices in Q4 2011 was 12.8 below that in Q4 2007.
  • Net factor income from the rest of the world (aka largely transfer pricing net of receipts by Irish corporates and individuals on their foreign investments) grew 59.9% yoy in Q4 2011 which follows on 7.41% growth in Q3 2007. These transfers now account for 18.51% of our GDP and were running 10.0% ahead of the levels recorded in Q4 2007.
  • Headline GNP in constant prices in Q4 2011 fell 7.1% yoy following a 1.18% contraction in Q3 2011. National income in constant prices is now 16.6% below that attained in Q4 2007.
  • GDP/GNP gap stood at 18.51% in Q4 2011 slightly down on 20.18% in Q3 2011.
Charts:



More sectoral analysis to follow in the next post.
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