2/4/21: U.S. Duration of Unemployment

One of the America's Scariest Charts - a long-term running issue I have been highlighting for a number of years now - is roaring back to prominence as Covid19 pandemic crisis continues to impact U.S. labor markets across virtually all possible metrics of health.

Here it is: the average duration of unemployment spells:

Unemployment spells become short at the start of the recession as new vintage unemployed join the ranks of long term unemployed. As the recovery sets in, unemployment duration starts to take into the account a different and changing mix of those on unemployment: the share of total unemployed who are short-term unemployed shrinks, the share of the longer term unemployed rises. Secularly, however, virtually every past recession since 1970s on has resulted in a longterm increase in average duration of unemployment during the recovery phase of the business cycle. In other words, the longer term unemployed became even longer-term unemployed. And now, the Covid19 pandemic joins the line of past recessions with continuing on this trend. 

Chart next compares each recession and subsequent recovery period since the end of the WW2 through current:

Based on the average duration of unemployment, we are now (in the Covid19 pandemic recession) are tracking the worst recession on record: the Great Recession. Weeks ahead will tell us, if indeed this will be a new record-breaking recession, beating the length of average unemployment spell established in the Great Recession. But for now, with all the recovery going around, the unemployed are becoming longer and longer-term unemployed.

Not exactly a picture of robust health being restored in the U.S. labor markets.

2/4/21: U.S. New Unemployment Claims

Continuing with the coverage of core statistics for the U.S. labor markets performance. This post covers new unemployment claims through March 20, 2021, with the last two weeks of data being preliminary estimates.

In the week through March 20, 2021, new unemployment claims fell to 656,789, or four weeks running total of 2,892,799 dipping below the peak of the Great Recession levels of 4 weeks total of 3,313,000. This is the good news.

The bad news is that latest reading would rank 58th worst in the history of the weekly series, if we are to exclude the Covid19 period. Another part of the bad news is that last week's weekly rate of decline of 100,412, the fastest rate of decline in four weeks, is actually slower than average weekly rate of decline for the pandemic period. 

4 weeks running average rate of improvement in new unemployment claims is just 14,943. Which means that at this rate of labor market improvements, it will take 30.6 weeks to regain pre-Covid lows of new claims.

Things are improving. But they are improving at less than impressive rates.

Note:

• Post 1 covering continued unemployment claims is available here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-continued-unemployment-claims.html
• Post 2 covering labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio is available here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-labor-force-participation-and.html
• Post 3 covering non-farm payrolls is available here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-non-farm-payrolls.html.

2/4/21: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls

 In the first part of the series of updates on the U.S. labor markets, I covered continued unemployment claims (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-continued-unemployment-claims.html), followed by the second post covering labor force participation and employment-to-population ratio (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-labor-force-participation-and.html).

Now, consider total non-farm payrolls - a measure of jobs present in the economy:

Total non-farm payrolls rose in march 2021 to 143,400,000, up on 142,077,000 in February. However, the increase still leaves the payrolls 9,777,000 short of the pre-Covid19 highs. The rate of jobs addition rose in March to 1,323,000 from February growth rate of 1,097,000. Combined jobs expansions of February and March, however, are not sufficient to cover the jobs losses of 2,622,000 sustained in January 2021. Average monthly jobs recovery during the pandemic period is 1,195,000, which means that it will take ca 8 months at the average rate of jobs creation for the economy to regain its pre-Covid19 highs in jobs numbers.

2/4/21: U.S. labor force participation and employment to population ratio

 

In the previous post, I covered U.S. continued unemployment claims: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/2421-us-continued-unemployment-claims.html, noting that decreases in unemployment counts are, in part, driven by workers dropping off unemployment rolls due to exits from the workforce and/or expirations of unemployment benefits. Here is the data on U.S. labor force participation rates and employment to population ratio through March 2021:

Things are still ugly when it comes to these two measures of labor markets health in the U.S: 

• Latest reading for U.S. labor force participation rate at 61.5 is just a notch up on February's 61.3, but is unchanged on November 2020. Pandemic period average labor force participation rate is woefully low at 61.7, which is still higher than March 2021 reading. March reading is equivalent to the average reading for the decade of the 1970s which was marked by stagflation and high unemployment.
• Latest reading for U.S. employment to population ratio is at 57.7 - an improvement on February reading of 57.3, and better than the pandemic period average of 56.9, but still comparable to the levels seen only in the early 1980s. 

Both metrics show the brutal nature of the current labor markets, where demand for skills is rising, including in manufacturing, while services jobs (and lower-skilled B2C services jobs in particular) are still hard to find.

2/4/21: U.S. Continued Unemployment Claims

Continued weekly unemployment claims fell in the week of March 20 to their lowest Covid19 pandemic period point of 3,794,000 (seasonally adjusted). The decline in the unemployment claims driven by a combination of:

1. Jobs creation
2. Benefits expiration
3. Exits from the labor force

Even with the positive news, U.S. current reading is in line with March 2011.

More updates on the U.S. labor markets coming up, so stay tuned.

2/4/21: COVID19: Nordics v Sweden

Sweden continues to perform poorly compared to peer countries, irrespective of how one defines Nordic countries as a group:

As table above shows, Sweden is the worst performer, by a large margin than any other Nordic or Northern European country when it comes to deaths from Covid19 pandemic.

Per charts below, adjusting for population differences, Sweden performs worse than any Nordic group of countries configuration imaginable in cases and deaths counts:

These facts are now recognized by policymakers in Sweden itself, even though the country continues to be a poster-child for the Covid19 denialists around the world.

2/4/21: COVID19: U.S. vs EU27 comparatives

US vs EU27 comparatives in the pandemic dynamics through the week 12 of 2021 are showing continued, albeit declining improvement in the relative position of the US. That said, much of the improvement is down to lags in new waves development, with the EU27 now firmly in its Wave 3 and the U.S. potentially entering Wave 4.

Based on the table and charts posted above, Europe (EU27) has now lost the plot on containing the pandemic. This takes place at the time when EU27 is botching roll out of vaccinations. On the more optimistic side, the U.S. roll out of vaccines has been relatively fast-paced, although logistics and delivery have been highly varied across different states and effectiveness can be significantly improved.

As the result, U.S. has managed to somewhat shrink the gap in terms of excess deaths from Covid19 pandemic compared to the EU27.

With more people infected, and higher vaccination rates, the U.S. is also holding a major advantage on the EU27 in terms of mortality rates per case.

Nonetheless, dynamics of the pandemic evolution are not promising: the U.S. is potentially entering a new wave of the pandemic, Wave 4, on foot of:

• Dramatic relaxation of prior restrictions and public health measures across many states, well-ahead of vaccinations making a significant impact on infections;
• Increased seasonal travel and social activities (primarily due to Spring Break);
• Severely lax enforcement of Covid19 restrictions and measures during the last 3 months; and
• Effectively free-for-all, cavalier approach to public safety by many U.S. residents.

Growth rates in both cases and deaths are quite dramatic:

If sustained, these dynamics will lead to acceleration in deaths counts in the U.S. and Europe. As things stand, the U.S. death toll from this pandemic already exceeds the combined number of combat-related deaths sustained by the U.S. is ALL wars from the mid-point of the Civil War. Put differently, Covid19 has now officially killed more Americans within one year of the pandemic as 160 years of all wars the U.S. engaged in. The U.S. excess death toll relative to the EU27, adjusting for population sizes is now at 111,789 - more than all deaths in combat since 1945. Adjusting for age differences and population sizes, U.S. excess mortality from Covid19 is 125,204 or more than total U.S. combat deaths since the start of 1945, the last year of World War 2.

Is American public health system fit for purpose? Anyone? 

2/4/21: COVID19: BRIICS

 As warned last month, BRIICS are now in a new wave of the pandemic, just like the rest of the world:

The new wave is worse than the previous one in terms of new weekly case counts and deaths. Brazil and India are leading the new cases pandemic, while Brazil leads in terms of deaths. Russia is relatively stable on deaths counts at highly elevated levels, while India death counts (highly suspicious in terms of low numbers throughout the entire 2021 so far) are now rising once again.

Table above shows summary of dynamics in current weekly cases and deaths relative to the prior 4 weeks average. 

These numbers strongly indicate that risk of pandemic will continue to spill over across the world, with no country immune to the new wave developing, until reaching 'herd immunity' levels via immunizations, assuming no adverse mutations in the virus.

1/34/21: COVID19: Most impacted countries

 Here is a set of summary tables for world's most impacted countries:

First, 17 countries with more than 7% of population tested positive:

And 16 countries with more than 0.15% of population dead:

Most are smaller in population countries. Outliers to this rule are:

• The U.S. that enters both of the lists as the only country with population > 15 million
• Mexico that enters the list for highest mortality countries (alongside the U.S.) - the only two countries on the list with population > 100 million
• Spain, UK and Italy are the three countries on the deadliest countries list with population between 45 million and 99 million.

The new wave starting means I should update the table for most impacted countries based on case counts alone. Prior to this week, I tracked countries with > 250,000 cases. There are now too many of these to make this table meaningful, so in days ahead, I will update the methodology to report countries with > 500,000 cases. Stay tuned. 

Instead, here is the list of countries and regions with > 3 percent of total global cases:

Most of these are now starting a new wave of the pandemic. 

1/4/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 Both Europe and the EU27 are now in a new wave, Wave 3, of the pandemic, just as the rest of the world (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/1421-covid19-worldwide-data.html). There is no denying that fact:

Over the last 4 weeks, average number of weekly cases is up massive 37% compared to prior four weeks' average in Europe and a whooping 40% in the EU27. Deaths are lagging 4-weeks on 4-weeks changes, so by this metric, we are seeing a decline of 18% in Europe and 15% drop in the EU27. But, controlling somewhat for lags, current latest weekly death counts are up 11% on 4 weeks average in both Europe and the EU27. 

Sign of things to come: week 12/2021 rate of new cases is up 22% on 4-weeks average in Europe and 19% in the EU27. So the data suggests things are more likely to get worse in terms of both, new cases and new deaths. 

Brace yourselves... 

1/4/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

Last time I updated the numbers for global Covid19 pandemic, we were starting to spot the early signs of a new wave, Wave 4 emerging in new cases counts. Now, sadly, we can confirm exactly this development.

The virus does not care much for the bloviation of political leaders around the world. It does not care for Joe Biden's plans for the Fourth of July or State leaders' dreams of the Spring Break raves going on. It doesn't give a damn is European political establishment is running around the place like headless chickens, constantly re-jigging and gerrymandering performance and risk metrics in a desperate attempt to appease one side of electorate having previously tried to appease the other. The virus might care about the rates of vaccinations, but, hey it isn't worried too much: the rates are abysmally low (especially in Europe), and virtually in-extant in the emerging markets. If anything, with all this circus of 'policymaking' around, the virus is comfortably mutating. And, as mutations go, the ones that matter are the ones that reduce efficacy of our already senile public health interventions. 

Aptly, the lags between the new wave launching in case numbers and the new wave starting to rise in deaths counts are pretty much identical to what we have seen in the past:

Yeah, right folks, deadliness of the virus is also staying put - steady as it has been going since the start of the now-firmly-forgotten Wave 3:

You get the view, right? The dressage of politicos promising 'relaxation' of controls is once again being followed by a blowout of the pandemic. And, in case you wondered, unless your version of 'relaxation of controls' involves gulping warm beer on Florida beaches during the Spring Break, don't bother: real constraints are still in place. Sure, Sam Jr can go to school. Sure he won't see much improvement in his studies, sure you do get a few hours of daily day-care-by-teachers so you can ... wait... do what? Hit the Walmart? Cause you either have a job working from home, you have a job working in quasi-normal environment pre-pandemic-style, or you won't have a job, since 'opening' doors ≠ getting customers into them. 

Never mind. For now, happy April 1. We don't need jokes played on us. We are the jokers in all of this charade. The virus killed 2,798,756 people around the world - that we know of - and rising...

Look at the differences in 4 weeks average changes and current on 4 weeks average change:

... That is Wave 4. And it started. 

14/3/21: COVID19 Update: U.S. vs EU27 comparatives

 Previous posts covered updates for Covid19 pandemic stats:

• Worldwide data: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/12321-covid19-update-worldwide-data.html, 
• Europe and the EU27 countries: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13221-covid19-update-europe-and-eu27.html, 
• Most impacted countries: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13321-covid19-update-most-impacted.html, and
• BRIICS dynamics: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13321-covid19-update-briics.html.

In this post, let's take a look at the U.S. vs EU27 comparatives (some of these were touched upon in the previous posts).

So, five charts and a table. Starting with weekly cases:

Since the start of the pandemic, the U.S. has experienced three waves, against the EU27's two. The EU27's 2nd wave appears to have crested in week 45 of 2020, while the U.S.' current wave continued to rise through week 1 of 2021. 

Over the last 4 weeks, however, the U.S. case counts have been running 783,315 lower than those of the EU27 on cumulated basis. Furthermore, starting from week 8 of 2021, there is some early evidence of a potential Wave 3 starting in the EU27.

Weekly death counts are harder to interpret:

The trend in EU27 Wave 2 deaths counts indicates significant decline from the relatively flat peak that run from week 48/2020 through week 5/2021. The decline, however, only takes the EU27 back to the average of weeks 44 and 45 - the phase of rapid acceleration in Wave 2. The rate of decline has fallen dramatically in the last two weeks.  

The U.S. data is extremely volatile, but the peak of Wave 3 can be timed to week 7/2021, with plateau around the peak running weeks 1/2021-7/2021.

Cumulated deaths per capita trend:

• Since the start of Wave 2 in the EU27 (Wave 3 in the U.S.), EU27 deaths per capita have been converging with those in the U.S. through week 48/2020.
• From week 1/2021, U.S. deaths per capita started once again to diverge from those in the EU27.
• In the latest data, week 9 of 2021, U.S. excess deaths (population size adjusted) relative to the EU27 stand at 108,676, down from a peak of 117,345 in week 7 of 2021.

Mapping U.S. excess mortality compared to the EU27 and Europe:

• In highly simplified terms, the U.S. pandemic experience has been associated with a cumulative excess mortality, compared to the EU27 and Europe of between 108,676 and 182,892 cases, respectively, based solely on differences in population sizes.
• If older European and EU27 demographics are factored in, these excess U.S. deaths rise to 121,718 and 210,326, respectively.
• Both gaps have now resumed their rise, despite more robust vaccination strategy in the U.S.

The above figures are striking. In Vietnam War, the U.S. carried combat casualties of 47,434 and total casualties of 58,318 dead. The pandemic excess deaths toll compared to the EU27 is more than 2 times the total death toll of Vietnam War. 

Where the U.S. is performing better than the EU27 is in terms of overall mortality rate per positive Covid19 case: 

In both, the U.S. and the EU27, new cases have become progressively less fatal through week 34 of 2020. This is most likely accounted for by improved and earlier diagnostics and treatments, as well as by increased share of infections detected in younger patients. These effects were exhausted around week 35 of 2020.

The 2nd wave of the pandemic in the EU27 was associated with a significant initial increase in severity. A smaller increase took place in the U.S. in the 3rd wave. Overall, the most recent wave of the pandemic saw relative uplift in the EU27 mortality rate, while the U.S. mortality rate continued to decline. U.S. trend remains power-law, implying sustained decreases in mortality of new cases over time, while the EU27 trend has shifted toward a polynomial since Week 53 of 2020, implying rising risk of higher mortality, in line with the differences in the EU27 vs U.S. demographics.

Now, a summary table of key statistics:

The above is self-explanatory. The U.S. performs worse than the EU27 on all population-adjusted metrics. 

Here is the degree of relationship between deaths per 1 million population in the U.S. and the EU27 as linked to the Worldwide numbers:

Through the Wave 3 (U.S.) and Wave 2 (EU27), the relationship is effectively the same, with somewhat weaker connection between the EU27 and World rates than between the U.S. and World rates.