20/6/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating pandemic numbers for the past week for EU27 and Europe:

As the charts clearly show, 

• Europe experienced significant declines in new cases and deaths in recent weeks, in part due to improved rates of vaccinations.
• The third wave is now clearly behind us in both the EU27 and Europe, although European cases are remaining at much higher levels than those in the EU27. A similar pattern is evident in deaths.
• In terms of Covid19 mortality (deaths per 1,000 cases) the rate of mortality has been effectively flat since week 45 of 2020 and is currently running at around 22 deaths per 1,000 cases in the EU27 and Europe.

While these figures show the effectiveness of vaccinations and past lockdown measures, they also present evidence for the need of more robust international efforts in sharing vaccines with countries with lower incomes. Until similar declines are evidenced globally, it is hard to make an argument that any specific region (be it Europe or North America) can be immune from the risks of the pandemic contagion from other countries. More on this risk here: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/06/19621-covid19-worldwide-data.html. 

19/6/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

 

With some time passing since my last update, and the rates of vaccinations ramping up globally, it is easy to forget the simple, but devastating fact: we are still in a global pandemic. Here are the latest weekly totals for new cases and new deaths, worldwide:

Just as the charts show,

• New cases have fallen significantly from the pandemic peak (Wave 4), but remain above the prior trough between Waves 3 and 4. 
• New deaths recorded are still at extremely high levels, and showing an uptick week-on-week in the latest data.

Meanwhile, mortality of new Covid19 cases is stubbornly at the levels observed over the last two waves of the pandemic:

Put differently, the 'rich' world is getting vaccinated (albeit with some variation in the rates), while the emerging markets and middle-income economies remain well behind on vaccinations curve. Which means there is continued threat of a global pandemic re-igniting and the looming uncertainty over the new variants emerging.

So much for the 'reopening' future...

9/5/21: COVID19: BRIICS

 Updating data for BRIICS for Covid19 pandemic through Week 17 of 2021 (current week):

Almost half of all cumulated cases within the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) group are now in India (above) and almost half of all deaths are in Brazil (below).

The pandemic dynamics have turned decisively in recent weeks: in terms of new cases, India dominates the trend up, with all other BRIICS showing amelioration in the pandemic:

Similarly, for we weekly death counts:

China data remains utterly unbelievable and hard to trust.

Summary table of recent developments:

India's pandemic dynamics are shocking, horrific and show no signs of abating. This is a humanitarian disaster that requires help from the rest of the world - help that has been coming in too-little and too-late.

9/5/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 

Updating graphs for Europe and EU27 pandemic data through week 17 of 2021:

Some good news with a shade of a reality check:

• New cases are off their Wave 3 highs, solidly so
• Current case counts are still above Wave 2 trough and well ahead of where they were at the end of Summer 2020.

Similar, but a bit more benign trend in weekly death counts:

Good news 'part 3': mortality rates are declining, again:

While the progress on vaccinations across Europe has been less impressive than desired, it now appears that two factors are driving the end of the Wave 3 of this pandemic:

1. Vaccinations roll-outs, and
2. Cumulated effects of recent (and in some countries still ongoing) restrictions.

Let's hope these trends remain persistent in weeks ahead and the new variants do not show up with resistance to vaccinations. 

8/5/21: COVID19: Most impacted countries

 Covering data through this week (week 17) of 2021 for world's most impacted countries.

First: most impacted countries by the rate of infections and by mortality:

There is only one large country (population > 100 million) that is listed in both tables: the U.S. 

Now, a table of countries with more than 1 million cases:

The U.S. ranks 8th worst performer in the group of 28 countries with more than 1 million cases, when measured across all three metrics: infections per 1 million of population, deaths per 1 million of population and deaths per 1,000 of diagnosed cases. 

Looking at major countries groups in the context of the above table:

Finally, looking at the most impacted countries from the point of their relative contributions to global totals for cases and deaths:

8/5/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

 Updating worldwide data for the Covid19 pandemic through week 17 of 2021 (current week):

We exited Wave 3 that started Week 34, 2020, peaked in Week 1, 2021, and bottomed out in Week 7 of 2021.

Since Week 8 of 2021, we are seeing growth of a new wave, Wave 4

The latest levels of new infections are now the highest in the history of the pandemic and in the last two weeks of the data, world case counts are in excess of the Wave 3 peak levels.

Starting with Week 8 of 2021 we are witnessing a new, Wave 4, of the pandemic emerging. The latest weekly death counts as of Weeks 14, 16 and 17, 2021, rank as 7th, 6th and 5th highest in the history of the pandemic.

Good news: Recent decreases in mortality rate are most likely attributable to three key drivers: (1) earlier detection of cases due to improved testing; (2) younger demographics of those with confirmed infections; and (3) improved treatments in the earlier stages of the disease.

The slight increase in mortality through week 12 of 2021 appears to have stabilized and reversed in the most recent 5 weeks.

Summary table above shows significant improvement in the pandemic dynamics in the U.S. and more modest, but still sizable improvements in the EU27. BRIICS and Asia are showing worsening pandemic dynamics, and worldwide data broadly reflects this development.

While U.S. and EU27 numbers are encouraging, overall picture of the pandemic remains extremely worrying: worldwide, contagion is still raging unabated and those countries showing strong improvements in vaccinations and reducing contagion spread remain vulnerable to spillovers of new variants and new infections from the rest of the world. 

19/4/21: COVID19: BRIICS

BRIICS are now in a fully-developed Wave 4 of the pandemic, like much of the rest of the world. This is confirmed across both new case numbers and weekly deaths counts:

I highlighted in the table below two BRIICS countries with seriously questionable data quality: China and India. China has been routinely reporting numbers that simply are out of line with anything reported by other countries around the world. India's death statistics appear to be similarly out line with experience in most countries. In the past, Russia received a lot of criticism for its reporting of Covid19 deaths, but their numbers do not appear to be out of line with other countries reported statistics.

These are six largest emerging and middle income economies in the world, and their pandemic dynamics, in the end, hold the key to the global efforts on combating the spread of the disease. Not surprisingly, these countries account for three of the four main variants of the disease to-date. If anyone thinks that Europe and North America can effectively insulate themselves from what is happening in these countries, by any means other than attaining a sufficient and robust immunity through vaccinations, they really need to reflect hard on their rational thought capacity.

19/4/21: COVID19: Most impacted countries

 

Updated tables for world's most impacted countries and regions below. Starting with the countries with the highest recognized levels of infections:

Followed by the countries with the highest rates of mortality:

• Andorra, Montenegro and Czechia are top three countries in the world in terms of infections rates
• Gibraltar, Czechia and San Marino are top three countries in the world in terms of mortality rates
• Of larger countries, with population > 100 million, the U.S. is the only country featured on both lists, while Mexico is on the list of countries with highest mortality.

A set of table for countries with more than 250,000 recorded cases:

• There are 57 countries on the list as of Thursday last week. 
• Across three metrics used (infections rate, deaths per capita and mortality rate per case), Hungary is rated the worst, followed by Belgium and Bulgaria. Czechia and Slovakia share the 4th and 5th places.
• The U.S. is ranked 3rd highest in the number of infections, in the 8th place in terms of highest deaths per 1 million of population and in the 32nd place in terms of deaths per 1,000 infections. Overall, the U.S. is ranked 8th worst country in terms of pandemic performance across the three metrics.

Table next shows comparatives by the same metrics across regions, treating regions as if they were countries (ranks):

Finally, looking at the major countries and groupings in terms of their cases and deaths counts within the context of their shares of global population:

Notably, majority of the most impacted countries are, currently, in the process of developing, or already experiencing, a new wave of the pandemic.

17/4/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

 
Despite the ongoing efforts to accelerate vaccinations, we can now, sadly, confirm that globally, we are in the fourth wave of the pandemic:

As reminder,  we exited Wave 3 that started Week 34, 2020, peaked in Week 1, 2021, and bottomed out in Week 7 of 2021. Since Week 8 of 2021, we are seeing growth of a new wave, Wave 4 which has now reaching the peak of Wave 3. The latest level of new infections is now second highest weekly count in the history of the pandemic, at 4,833,991 cases compared to 5,284,581 cases at the peak of Wave 3 in week 1 of 2021.

There is a two weeks lag in the dynamics of deaths counts compared to the dynamics of new cases registrations. Nonetheless, we can now confirm Wave 4 development based on weekly deaths as well as on weekly new case counts. The latest weekly death counts as of Week 14, 2021, ranks 5th highest in the history of the pandemic.

Mortality rates remain subdued, as through the Wave 3 of the pandemic. Which is the only decent news from the recent data.

A summary table by region:

In summary: the pandemic is not abating, despite significant inroads made in terms of vaccinations, especially in the advanced economies. It is a loud and clear reminder to us all that vaccinations in the advanced economies are not enough to cut global rates of infections, and every day lost to lower rates of vaccinations in the emerging economies is another day left to virus to potentially mutate and produce yet another more contagious and deadly variant.

2/4/21: COVID19: BRIICS

 As warned last month, BRIICS are now in a new wave of the pandemic, just like the rest of the world:

The new wave is worse than the previous one in terms of new weekly case counts and deaths. Brazil and India are leading the new cases pandemic, while Brazil leads in terms of deaths. Russia is relatively stable on deaths counts at highly elevated levels, while India death counts (highly suspicious in terms of low numbers throughout the entire 2021 so far) are now rising once again.

Table above shows summary of dynamics in current weekly cases and deaths relative to the prior 4 weeks average. 

These numbers strongly indicate that risk of pandemic will continue to spill over across the world, with no country immune to the new wave developing, until reaching 'herd immunity' levels via immunizations, assuming no adverse mutations in the virus.

1/34/21: COVID19: Most impacted countries

 Here is a set of summary tables for world's most impacted countries:

First, 17 countries with more than 7% of population tested positive:

And 16 countries with more than 0.15% of population dead:

Most are smaller in population countries. Outliers to this rule are:

• The U.S. that enters both of the lists as the only country with population > 15 million
• Mexico that enters the list for highest mortality countries (alongside the U.S.) - the only two countries on the list with population > 100 million
• Spain, UK and Italy are the three countries on the deadliest countries list with population between 45 million and 99 million.

The new wave starting means I should update the table for most impacted countries based on case counts alone. Prior to this week, I tracked countries with > 250,000 cases. There are now too many of these to make this table meaningful, so in days ahead, I will update the methodology to report countries with > 500,000 cases. Stay tuned. 

Instead, here is the list of countries and regions with > 3 percent of total global cases:

Most of these are now starting a new wave of the pandemic. 

1/4/21: COVID19: Europe and EU27

 Both Europe and the EU27 are now in a new wave, Wave 3, of the pandemic, just as the rest of the world (https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/04/1421-covid19-worldwide-data.html). There is no denying that fact:

Over the last 4 weeks, average number of weekly cases is up massive 37% compared to prior four weeks' average in Europe and a whooping 40% in the EU27. Deaths are lagging 4-weeks on 4-weeks changes, so by this metric, we are seeing a decline of 18% in Europe and 15% drop in the EU27. But, controlling somewhat for lags, current latest weekly death counts are up 11% on 4 weeks average in both Europe and the EU27. 

Sign of things to come: week 12/2021 rate of new cases is up 22% on 4-weeks average in Europe and 19% in the EU27. So the data suggests things are more likely to get worse in terms of both, new cases and new deaths. 

Brace yourselves... 

1/4/21: COVID19: Worldwide Data

Last time I updated the numbers for global Covid19 pandemic, we were starting to spot the early signs of a new wave, Wave 4 emerging in new cases counts. Now, sadly, we can confirm exactly this development.

The virus does not care much for the bloviation of political leaders around the world. It does not care for Joe Biden's plans for the Fourth of July or State leaders' dreams of the Spring Break raves going on. It doesn't give a damn is European political establishment is running around the place like headless chickens, constantly re-jigging and gerrymandering performance and risk metrics in a desperate attempt to appease one side of electorate having previously tried to appease the other. The virus might care about the rates of vaccinations, but, hey it isn't worried too much: the rates are abysmally low (especially in Europe), and virtually in-extant in the emerging markets. If anything, with all this circus of 'policymaking' around, the virus is comfortably mutating. And, as mutations go, the ones that matter are the ones that reduce efficacy of our already senile public health interventions. 

Aptly, the lags between the new wave launching in case numbers and the new wave starting to rise in deaths counts are pretty much identical to what we have seen in the past:

Yeah, right folks, deadliness of the virus is also staying put - steady as it has been going since the start of the now-firmly-forgotten Wave 3:

You get the view, right? The dressage of politicos promising 'relaxation' of controls is once again being followed by a blowout of the pandemic. And, in case you wondered, unless your version of 'relaxation of controls' involves gulping warm beer on Florida beaches during the Spring Break, don't bother: real constraints are still in place. Sure, Sam Jr can go to school. Sure he won't see much improvement in his studies, sure you do get a few hours of daily day-care-by-teachers so you can ... wait... do what? Hit the Walmart? Cause you either have a job working from home, you have a job working in quasi-normal environment pre-pandemic-style, or you won't have a job, since 'opening' doors ≠ getting customers into them. 

Never mind. For now, happy April 1. We don't need jokes played on us. We are the jokers in all of this charade. The virus killed 2,798,756 people around the world - that we know of - and rising...

Look at the differences in 4 weeks average changes and current on 4 weeks average change:

... That is Wave 4. And it started. 

13/3/21: COVID19 Update: BRIICS

Previous posts covered updates for Covid19 pandemic stats:

• Worldwide data: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/12321-covid19-update-worldwide-data.html, 
• Europe and the EU27 countries: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13221-covid19-update-europe-and-eu27.html, and
• Most impacted countries: https://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2021/03/13321-covid19-update-most-impacted.html

In this update, let's take a look at the dynamics of the pandemic in BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) group of countries.

First, weekly case counts:

Brazil is leading BRIICS into what appears to be a new wave, Wave 4 of the pandemic. All other BRIICS countries are showing sustained moderation in new cases. There is also a much smaller uptick in new cases in India.

A similar picture emerges from weekly deaths data:

A summary table of per capita cases and deaths, as well as mortality rates.

One feature of the above dynamics is the state of uncertainty these highlight in the Emerging and Developing economies with respect to the recent improvements in the pandemic numbers. Sitting in the West, it is, perhaps (depending on the location) easy to slip into a state of overconfidence and complacency, as vaccines become more widely distributed and politicians trumpet the sight of 'normalcy' on the horizon. The problem with this worldview is three-fold:

1. This pandemic will not go away until we reach - globally - levels of vaccinations and infections that deliver global 'herd immunity', which would require 90%+ immunity cover; and
2. As long as there are large pools of the virus in the world at large, there will be higher likelihood (note: we do not know probability) of virus mutations that can render acquired immunity irrelevant, and
3. We are currently not doing anything near enough to deliver vaccines to the countries outside the Advanced economies world.